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Model Assessment of Dynamical Atmospheric Pollution Control Schemes Based on Sensitive Source Zone Analysis
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摘要: 选取2014年11月6—11日一次典型污染过程，以北京城区为重点关注的目标区域，基于印痕分析技术判别对该区域影响较大的敏感源区，设计重点区域减排试验和敏感源区逐日动态减排试验，利用区域化学传输模式WRF-Chem进行模拟对比。结果显示：上述两种方案对源强较高的减排当地PM2.5浓度降低均有明显的改善作用，且在传输作用下会辐射影响到下游地区；但仅就目标区域而言，敏感源区减排方案的减排效率要远远高于重点区域减排方案。为了验证基于敏感源分析的动态减排方法的适用性，进一步开展了不同季节以及不同背景浓度的个例模拟。结果表明：基于敏感源区分析结果制定动态逐日减排措施，可降低削减成本、提高减排效率，以达到最具经济环境效益的减排效果。Abstract: In recent years, the atmospheric environment in parts of China has become significantly degraded and the need for emission controlling has become urgent. As more international events have been carried out, and more serious pollution weather happens frequently, it is important to implement air quality assurance targeted at significant events held during specific periods. A representative pollution episode, 6 November to 11 November in 2014 is chosen and simulations are carried out setting urban area of Beijing as the target region. By using the method of footprint analysis, the sensitive source zones that have the greatest impact on the air quality of the Beijing urban area are determined. Regional chemical and transportation model WRF-Chem is used to establish emission reduction tests for the focus source zones and for specific sensitive source zones within and around Beijing. Results show that two kinds of tests have significant effects on PM2.5 concentration decreasing in the emission reduction local with high intensity of emission source. Besides, the effect could also result in the decrease of pollutant concentration in downwind area under the transportation function. But only in terms of the target area, initiating a moderate emission reduction for specific sensitive source zones is more effective on the air quality of urban Beijing than initiating the same strength emission reduction for focus source zones. In certain cases when the PM2.5 direct emission reduction for the specific sensitive source zones accounts for less than 20% of focus source zones, the PM2.5 concentration reduction amount in Beijing urban area can reach the level when the sensitive source zones reduction scheme accounts for about 60%-90% of focus source zones. This ratio maintains stable through all pollution process. Thus the daily dynamical emission reduction measures developed based on the sensitive source zones analysis, can help cut the emission control costs and improve the emission reduction efficiency. In addition, results from different study cases in different pollution degree further prove the above conclusions, indicating the reliable applicability of the dynamical emission reduction scheme in the guidance of emission reduction measures. Therefore, when enacting emission reduction schemes, cooperating with surrounding provinces and cities, as well as narrowing the reduction scope to specific sensitive source zones prior to unfavorable meteorological conditions, can help reduce emission control costs and improve the efficiency and maneuverability of emission reduction schemes.
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图 1 2014年10月1—11月13日北京地区AQI观测与模拟对比
(a) 相对误差, (b) AQI
Fig. 1 Variation of simulated and observed air quality index of Beijing area from 1 Otc to 13 Nov in 2014
(a) relative deviation, (b) AQI
图 2 2014年11月7—10日20:00地面PM2.5浓度模拟结果与观测对比
(色阶底图为模拟结果，实心圆点代表观测结果)
Fig. 2 Comparison of the surface PM2.5 concentration between the simulated and the observed
(simulated and observed values are indicated by shaded base graphics and shaded circles, respectively)
图 4 华北区域PM2.5排放强度分布
(单位:t·km-2·d-1)
Fig. 4 The distribution of PM2.5 emission intensity of Huabei region
(unit:t·km-2·d-1)
图 5 各减排方案PM2.5日排放量的削减量及削减比例
(柱状图:削减量; 点线图:削减比例)
Fig. 5 Reduction quantity and reduction ratio of daily PM2.5 emissions for different emission-cut schemes
(bar:reduction quantity; line:reduction ratio)
图 6 基础情景下2014年11月7—10日北京及周边地区地面PM2.5浓度空间分布
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of surface PM2.5 concentration in Beijing and around areas from 7 Nov to 10 Nov in 2014 of base case
图 7 重点区域减排2014年11月7—10日北京及周边地区地面PM2.5浓度削减量空间分布
Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of surface PM2.5 concentration in Beijing and around areas from 7 Nov to 10 Nov in 2014 of focus source zones emission-cut case
图 8 敏感源区减排2014年11月7—10日北京及周边地区地面PM2.5浓度削减量空间分布
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of surface PM2.5 concentration in Beijing and around areas from 7 Nov to 10 Nov in 2014 of sensitive source zone emission-cut case
图 9 各减排方案目标区域PM2.5日平均浓度削减量
Fig. 9 Reduction quantity of PM2.5 daily concentration for target area simulated by different emission-cut schemes
表 1 减排方案设计
Table 1 Scheme design of different emission-cut regions
方案名称 方案设计 分析时段 减排物种 重点区域减排(C1) 北京及周边地区减排,减排区域为37.0°~42.0°N，
113.0°~119.0°E; 减排力度:人为源排放削减
50%敏感区域减排1(C2) 根据逐日印痕分析结果，全部敏感源区人为源排
放削减50%2014-11-06—11 SO2,NOx,
PM10,PM2.5,
VOCs,NH3敏感区域减排1(C3) 根据逐日印痕分析结果，重要敏感源区人为源排
放削减50%，比较重要敏感源区削减40%，一般
敏感源区削减30%
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表 2 各减排方案对不同个例PM2.5浓度削减效率的对比
Table 2 Comparison of reduction efficiency of PM2.5 concentration for different scheme in three cases
统计项目 2012-08-24—26
(基础浓度：156 μg·m-3)2013-10-31—11-02
(基础浓度：207 μg·m-3)2014-11-06—11
(基础浓度：97 μg·m-3)方案C1 方案C2 比例/% 方案C1 方案C2 比例/% 方案C1 方案C2 比例/% 平均日排放削减量/(t·d-1) 2300 360 16 2325 1120 48 2650 650 25 平均浓度削减量/(μg·m-3) 29 21 72 98 84 88 36 25 70 平均浓度削减比例/% 19 14 72 47 41 88 37 26 70
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