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Impacts of Global Climate Change on China's Climate Security
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摘要: 依据政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 第5次评估报告以及国内相关科学研究成果，使用最新的观测资料凝练了对全球气候变化的有关认识；从极端天气气候事件和气候承载力角度，分析了气候变化给我国带来的气候风险。研究发现:1961—2015年我国平均高温日数增加了28.4%，暴雨日数增加了8.2%。21世纪以来，登陆我国热带气旋的强度明显增加。在全球气候变暖的背景下，我国气候承载力将发生明显变化，未来面临的气候风险将加大。因此，保障我国气候安全，需要科学认识气候，提高气候风险意识; 主动适应气候，提高应对极端事件能力；努力保护气候，减缓气候变化的影响。Abstract: Global warming hiatus phenomenon has been a hot topic of climate research and public concern in recent years. To analyze the climate change during different periods and the trend of extreme climate events, monthly mean land-surface air temperature, daily land-surface air maximum temperature, daily precipitation and mean maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones landed in China are examined. Results reveal that taking the years of 1961-1990 as reference period, the global decade mean land-surface air temperature anomalies are-0.052℃ for 1961-1970, -0.066℃ for 1971-1980, 0.116℃ for 1981-1990, 0.274℃ for 1991-2000, 0.49℃ for 2001-2010 and 0.541℃ for 2011-2015, in which obvious increasing trend can be easily found. And the years of 2011-2015 are the warmest five years for global and Asia since mid-to-late 19th Century. Under the background of climate change, the average high temperature days and heavy rain days increase by 28.4% and 8.2% in China over the last 55 years. Frequencies of extreme climate events increases obviously, leading to increasing climate risks and significant changes of climate capacity. In order to ensure the climate safety, strategies are list as follows: Strengthening the scientific research, and improving the understanding of public and decision maker on climate change, climate safety and climate risk; according to the national and local conditions, taking appropriate adaptation actions, strengthening disaster risk management, to reduce the adverse effects that have occurred and will occur; taking measures to control greenhouse gas emissions against long-term climate risk.At present, the research on climate risk of our country needs more attention, and the public's climate security awareness still needs strengthening. Participating in the Global Framework of Climate Service (GFCS) and Future Earth (FE) operations should be made a priority to improve the scientific understanding and strengthen disaster risk management. More steps should be taken to actively adapt climate change, accelerate the adjustment of economic structure focused on green-low-carbon, and finally effectively reduce climate risks and ensure climate safety.
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Key words:
- climate change;
- IPCC;
- climate risk;
- climate security;
- strategic approach
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图 2 1961—2015年中国年平均气温距平变化
Fig. 2 The change of annual mean temperature departure in China from 1961 to 2015
图 3 1961—2015年中国平均年高温日数变化
Fig. 3 The change of annual mean high temperature days in China from 1961 to 2015
图 4 1961—2015年中国平均年暴雨日数变化
Fig. 4 The change of annual mean heave rainfall days in China from 1961 to 2015
图 5 1961—2015年中国登陆热带气旋平均最大风速变化
Fig. 5 The change of annual mean maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones landed in China from 1961 to 2015
表 1 1961—2015年不同时段平均气温距平 (单位：℃)
Table 1 The mean temperature departure during different periods from 1961 to 2015 (unit:℃)
时段 全球 亚洲 中国 1961—1970年 -0.052 -0.141 -0.135 1971—1980年 -0.066 -0.075 -0.010 1981—1990年 0.116 0.221 0.175 1991—2000年 0.274 0.494 0.597 2001—2010年 0.490 0.921 1.032 2011—2015年 0.541 0.998 0.958 注：气候平均值为1961—1990年平均。 
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