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Improvements and Performances of the Operational GRAPES_GFS 3DVar System
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摘要: 近年来，GRAPES全球三维变分同化系统分析性能和稳定性有了长足进步。该文简要介绍了近两年GRAPES全球：三维变分同化技术的发展与改进情况，包括同化框架技术、资料同化应用技术与系统稳定性等方面。分析诊断了两年的同化循环试验结果，以探空资料作为参考，对ERA-Interim再分析场、NCEP FNL分析场和GRAPES全球三维变分分析场的统计特征进行了比较；以ERA-Interim再分析场作为参考，对NCEP FNL分析场、T639分析场和GRAPES全球三维变分分析场进行比较。结果表明：GRAPES分析场的质量明显优于T639分析场，性能上达到了业务化的要求，但相比NCEP FNL分析场还有一定差距，特别是对流层内湿度分析场的误差还比较大。Abstract: In recent years, the capability and stability of GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) three-dimensional variation data assimilation system (3DVar) is upgraded and improved gradually in Numerical Weather Prediction Center of China Meteorological Administration. Improvements in analysis scheme and assimilating data technique for GRAPES 3DVar in the past two years are overviewed. Then the capability and performance of G-M3DVar latest version are evaluated by two-year length experiments. The accuracy and precision of G-M3DVar analyses is evaluated against radiosonde observation and ERA-Interim reanalysis and is compared with NCEP FNL and T639 analysis.Taken radiosonde data as a reference, the root mean square error and bias of pressure analyses of G-M3DVar are smaller than ERA-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis data in all domains in both winter and summer seasons. The root mean square error and bias of u wind analysis of G-M3DVar are larger than ERA-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis in the Tropics. However, in the Northern Hemisphere, the root mean square error and bias of u wind of G-M3DVar are similar to ERA-Interim below 250 hPa. In the Southern Hemisphere, the root mean squared error of u wind of G-M3DVar is the largest compared to EAR-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis. For humidity field, the bias of G-M3DVar analysis is smaller than EAR-Interim reanalysis and NCEP FNL analysis in the middle and high troposphere, which means that the humidity analysis of G-M3DVar is much drier than ERA-Interim and NCEP FNL data especially in the middle and high troposphere. Taken ERA-Interim reanalysis data as a reference, the root mean square error of G-M3DVar analysis is smaller than the T639 analysis but larger than NCEP FNL analysis data for all fields excluded the humidity.In conclusion, the quality of G-M3DVar analysis is better than T639 analysis and satisfies requirements of operational run. In recent years, the gap of analyses between G-M3DVar and advanced numerical weather centers such as ECMWF keeps growing, although the accuracy of G-M3DVar analysis is improved significantly in the past two years. Much more focus and works should be paid in the following aspects. First, the background error covariance (BE) is estimated by National Meteorological Center of USA (NMC) method, which is static and climatological. The static and climatological BE is far from meeting requirements of the modern numerical weather prediction. Second, the quality control scheme for all observations in G-M3DVar is still relatively inexactly and incapable. Third, the bias correction scheme for microwave radiance in G-M3DVar is still static which has been proved to have some shortcomings.
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图 1 探空观测的气压变量与ERA-Interim再分析场、NCEP FNL分析场和G-M3DVar分析场差别的平均值与标准差廓线(a)冬季，北半球, (b)夏季，北半球, (c)冬季，热带地区, (d)夏季，热带地区, (e)冬季，南半球，(f)夏季，南半球
Fig. 1 Mean and standard deviations of OMERA, OMEFNL and OMGRP on standard pressure in winter and summer over the North Hemisphere, the Tropics and the South Hemisphere (a) over the North Hemisphere in winter, (b) over the North Hemisphere in summer, (c) over the Tropics in winter, (d) over the Tropics in summer, (e) over the South Hemisphere in winter, (f) over the South Hemisphere in summer
图 4 以ERA-Interim再分析作为参考的G-M3DVar，NCEP FNL和T639高度分析场(2013年9月1日00：00至2014年8月31日18：00)平均的均方根误差(a)北半球，(b)热带地区，(c)南半球
Fig. 4 The root mean square error of NCEP FNL, T639 and G-M3DVar analyses for geopotential height against ERA-Interim reanalysis over the North Hemisphere (a), the Tropics (b) and the South Hemisphere (c)(from 0000 UTC 1 Sep 2013 to 1800 UTC 31 August 2014)
表 1 试验中G-M3DVar同化的观测资料种类与要素
Table 1 Observations assimilated in the experiment by G-M3DVar
资料种类 仪器 平台 同化要素 常规观测 探空 气压，u和v风分量，相对湿度 地面 地表气压 船舶 地表气压 小球测风 u和v风分量 飞机 u和v风分量，温度 卫星 AMSU-A微波温度计 NOAA-15，NOAA-18，NOAA-19，Metop-A 亮温 AIRS红外高光谱 AQUA 亮温 GNSS掩星 COSMIC，GRAS，GRACE-A，TerraSAR-X 折射率 云导风 u和v风分量 
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