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Near-surface Gust Factor Characteristics in Several Disastrous Winds over Zhejiang Province
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摘要: 阵风特性研究是大风预报和服务的基础。基于2011-2013年浙江省自动气象站逐日逐10 min测风资料，分析了浙江省陆地和近海海面冷空气、热带气旋和强对流大风的阵风系数特征。结果表明：冷空气和热带气旋大风阵风系数空间分布基本相同，大风主要发生在近海海面和沿海地区，海面阵风系数一般小于1.5，等值线平行于海岸线且自西向东逐渐减小，陆地阵风系数一般大于2.0，山区可超过3.0，表现出地形对阵风系数的增强作用。强对流大风阵风系数明显高于业务规范平均值，发生地点遍及浙江省各地，但发生概率超过10%的站点主要位于沿海地区和近海海面。风向基本不影响阵风系数空间分布。冷空气和热带气旋站点阵风系数与海拔高度有较高正相关性。模糊聚类分析发现：浙江省400 m以上山区站与70 m以下的低海拔站点在阵风系数特征上分属不同空间类型；基于逐步回归建立站点阵风系数预报模型，检验表明：模糊聚类可帮助提高模型阵风系数预报能力。Abstract: Studies on near-surface gust characteristics in high winds are necessary for weather services. Using the daily 10 min data from automatic weather stations in Zhejiang Province during 2011-2013, characteristics of near-surface gust factors in several kinds of high winds caused by cold air masses, tropical cyclones and abruptly severe convections, are investigated over the offshore and in-land areas of Zhejiang Province. Spatial distributions of wind velocities and gust factors are especially considered, as well as the relationship among gust factors, geographical elements and mean wind speeds. The fuzzy cluster mean (FCM) and stepwise regression methods are applied as well to do the weather station clusters under different weather patterns and set up gust factor forecast models. Result shows that the gust factor distribution displays similarly both in cold air and tropical cyclone strong winds although spatial speed distributions might be different from each other, and wind directions show no effects on gust factor distributions. Disastrous winds usually happen over the offshore seas and coastal areas, with gust factors less than 1.5 and the isolines paralleling to the coastline and descending eastwards. However, over in-land areas of Zhejiang Province, gust factors are generally greater than 2.0 and even more than 3.0 over the hilly regions with gentle wind speeds, indicating enhancing effects of hilly terrain. The average gust factor is more than 1.8 under severe convective systems, which is greater than operational regulations. The convective gale events could occur at any locations within Zhejiang Province, but stations with occurring probabilities more than 10% mainly lay in the coastal and offshore Zhejiang Province, and the terrain roughness doesn't show much influence. Gust factors perform well related to 10 min mean wind speeds and altitudes in high winds by cold air masses and tropical cyclones. FCM analysis indicates that there are few differences in station distributions between clod air mass and tropical cyclone gale events, stations located in the northern and coastal regions often differ from those in the middle and southern areas in Zhejiang Province, and stations with altitudes more than 400 m are different from those with altitudes lower than 70 m. Stepwise regression is carried out to set up forecasting models between gust factors and mean winds and station altitudes before and after FCM clusters, verifications imply that FCM could help improve forecast ability of the models. The regression model for type Ⅰ tends to overestimate gust factors at stations with relative high altitudes, on the contrary, the model for type Ⅱ tends to underestimate gust factors at stations with relative low altitudes.
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图 1 冷空气偏北大风时浙江省平均风速(a)和阵风系数(b)空间分布
Fig. 1 Spatial distributions of mean north wind speeds (a) and gust factors (b) under cold air masses in Zhejiang Province
图 2 热带气旋大风时不同风向浙江省平均风速和阵风系数空间分布
Fig. 2 Spatial distributions of mean wind speeds and gust factors at different wind directions caused by tropical cyclones in Zhejiang Province
图 3 2011-2013年6-8月浙江省站点及强对流大风事件概率分布
Fig. 3 Station and probability distributions of convective gale events from Jun to Aug in 2011-2013
图 4 冷空气和热带气旋大风时Ifp指数随聚类数C变化趋势
Fig. 4 Ifp trend with cluster number C under cold air and tropical cyclone gales
图 5 C=2时, 冷空气和热带气旋大风模糊聚类站点空间分布(a)冷空气，(b)热带气旋
Fig. 5 Station distributions of cold air and tropical cyclone gale events by FCM analysis with cluster number C=2 (a) cold air masses, (b) tropical cyclones
表 1 浙江省自动气象站阵风系数与各要素的相关系数
Table 1 Correlation coefficients between automatic weather station gust factors and elements in Zhejiang Province
天气系统 风向 纬度 经度 海拔高度 平均风速 样本量 冷空气 北 -0.234 -0.254 0.195 -0.585 1820 东北 -0.203 -0.206 0.174 -0.582 1799 东 -0.219 -0.166 0.181 -0.554 1754 东南 -0.167 -0.115 0.115 -0.494 1605 南 -0.175 -0.144 0.110 -0.458 1599 西南 -0.251 -0.145 0.169 -0.468 1675 西 -0.267 -0.222 0.209 -0.520 1754 西北 -0.252 -0.297 0.232 -0.576 1808 热带气旋 北 -0.245 -0.272 0.187 -0.576 1720 东北 -0.282 -0.291 0.230 -0.624 1715 东 -0.288 -0.291 0.253 -0.630 1720 东南 -0.246 -0.294 0.216 -0.573 1711 南 -0.203 -0.264 0.217 -0.501 1657 西南 -0.227 -0.236 0.228 -0.525 1672 西 -0.284 -0.292 0.251 -0.543 1686 西北 -0.251 -0.287 0.229 -0.542 1701 强对流 -0.010 -0.171 0.059 -0.418 4185 
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表 2 浙江省自动气象站点模糊聚类统计
Table 2 FCM results of automatic weather stations in Zhejiang Province
天气系统 聚类型 平均海拔/m 平均阵风系数 站点数量 不低于400 m 不高于70 m 70~400 m 合计 冷空气 Ⅰ型 83 2.4 41 691 361 1093 Ⅱ型 347 3.6 226 99 302 627 全部站点 180 2.8 267 790 663 1720 热带气旋 Ⅰ型 70 2.3 51 723 345 1119 Ⅱ型 400 3.5 260 13 328 601 全部站点 185 2.7 311 736 673 1720
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表 3 浙江省自动气象站阵风系数逐步回归预报模型检验
Table 3 Verification of stepwise regression forecast models of station gust factors in Zhejiang Province
天气系统 聚类型 回归样
本量独立检验
样本量F值 相关系数 平均偏差 绝对偏差 均方根误差 冷空气 未分型 1204 514 314.877 0.486 0.351 0.762 0.831 Ⅰ型 765 327 84.327 0.456 -0.073 0.428 0.533 Ⅱ型 439 187 88.913 0.556 -0.333 0.651 0.778 热带气旋 未分型 1200 515 292.090 0.433 0.237 0.761 0.887 Ⅰ型 780 336 51.197 0.612 -0.291 0.468 0.557 Ⅱ型 420 179 79.503 0.578 -0.150 0.644 0.783
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