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Impact of Wind Profiler Data on Regional Model Prediction in South China
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摘要: 设计基于GRAPES_Meso的不同试验模拟2014年3月28日-4月8日的广东前汛期降水过程，评估风廓线资料对同化和预报的影响。对资料同化后分析增量的分析表明：相比同化时仅使用自动气象站资料，风廓线雷达资料对1000 hPa到850 hPa纬向风增量均有贡献，在850 hPa，700 hPa高度以上贡献迅速减小。应用3个试验的预报结果计算探空站、风廓线雷达站预报值与观测值的11 d均方根误差发现，同化加入风廓线雷达资料对各预报要素的改善在850 hPa高度最明显，其中风速预报误差显著降低，为0.7 m·s-1。此外，风廓线雷达资料对700 hPa风速预报有一定改善，而在925 hPa高度模拟效果反而降低。通过对2014年3月30日12：00（世界时）的个例分析发现，同化加入风廓线雷达资料的风速预报均方根误差在大雨级别以上的降水落区更大，其原因还有待于进一步研究。Abstract: Weather analysis demonstrates that upper-level jet, low-level jet, and wind shear are closely related with rainstorms and severe convections in South China. Wind profiler radar can continuously observe wind, making it the most direct resource of upper wind observation comparing with conventional observations. A network of observation stations with 18 wind profiler radars is built in Guangdong, data of which are assimilated every 3 hours in GRAPES_Meso model in real time, and the influence of wind profiler data is evaluated. A precipitation process in the pre-flood season of South China from 28 March to 9 April in 2014 is simulated through three designed experiments by GRAPES_Meso model. Results of assimilation trials show that wind profile data contribute a lot to analysis increment of zonal wind at levels from 1000 hPa to 850 hPa, especially at 850 hPa, and this effect rapidly diminishes above 700 hPa level. The root mean square error (RMSE) of forecasted variables at radiosonde stations are calculated in terms of sounding observations and the outcome of three experiments. Results show that profiler data mostly improve RMSE at 850 hPa, which announces a 0.7 m·s-1 reduce of forecasted wind speed error, for 700 hPa level there's no evident improvement, and for 925 hPa level it becomes even worse. The same RMSE analysis is done at 12 wind profiler stations. The result is in accordance with radiosonde stations, which shows that the RMSE decreases at 850 hPa as well and the improvement is not evident at 925 hPa. The analysis indicates that the quality of wind profiler data is relatively better at 850 hPa. Results of two sensitive experiments for 1200 UTC 30 March 2014 is examined, revealing that the RMSE of the forecasted wind speed is even greater when wind profiler data are used in assimilation at locations of heavy rain grade or above. Besides, it seems that the RMSE of the forecasted wind speed also increases in the downstream direction of this heavy rain location. Causes of these two phenomena still need to be analyzed.
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Key words:
- wind profiler;
- data assimilation;
- regional model in South China
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图 1 广东省风廓线雷达站点与探空站分布
Fig. 1 Distribution of wind profiler radar stations and radiosonde stations in Guangdong Province
图 2 2014年3月28日—4月8日质量控制后风廓线雷达站点数与各站总风场数据垂层数
Fig. 2 Numbers of wind profiler stations and the sum of wind field vertical levels of every staion after quality control from 28 Mar to 8 Apr in 2014
图 3 2014年3月29日—4月8日探空站纬向风分析增量随高度变化
(a)敏感性试验1，(b)敏感性试验2与敏感性试验1差值
Fig. 3 Analysis increments of zonal wind at mandatory pressure levels for radiosonde stations from 29 Mar to 8 Apr in 2014
(a)sensitive experiment 1, (b)sensitive experiment 2 relative to sensitive experiment 1
图 4 2014年3月29日—4月8日探空站模拟风速均方根误差与各高度平均风速比值r随高度分布
Fig. 4 Ratio (r) of wind speed root mean square error to mean wind at mandatory pressure levels from 29 Mar to 8 Apr in 2014 for radiosonde stations
图 5 2014年3月29日—4月8日敏感性试验1与敏感性试验2模拟探空站预报要素均方根误差的差值随高度分布
(a)风速(ΔV)，(b)温度(ΔT)，(c)位势高度(ΔH)
Fig. 5 Difference between sensitive experiment 1 and sensitive experiment 2 for the forecast root mean square error between observation and forecast at mandatory pressure levels from 29 Mar to 8 Apr in 2014 for radiosonde stations
(a)wind speed (ΔV), (b)temperature (ΔT), (c)potential height (ΔH)
图 6 2014年3月29日—4月8日风廓线雷达站模拟风速均方根误差与各高度平均风速的比值(r)随高度分布
Fig. 6 Ratio (r) of wind speed root mean square error to mean wind at mandatory pressure levels from 29 Mar to 8 Apr in 2014 for profiler stations
图 7 2014年3月29日—4月8日敏感性试验1与敏感性试验2模拟风廓线雷达站风速均方根误差的差值随高度分布
Fig. 7 Difference between sensitive experiment 1 and sensitive experiment 2 for the wind speed root mean square error at lower levels from 29 Mar to 8 Apr in 2014 for profiler stations
图 8 2014年3月30日06:00敏感性试验2 850 hPa纬向风(a)和经向风(b)相对于敏感性试验1分析增量的差值(填色)与背景场(矢量)
Fig. 8 Differences of 850 hPa zonal wind(a) and meridional wind(b) analysis increments between sensitive experiment 1 and sensitive experiment 2 at 0600 UTC 30 Mar 2014
表 1 2014年3月30日12:00 850 hPa高度风廓线雷达站风速预报误差
Table 1 850 hPa wind speed forecast error at 1200 UTC 30 Mar 2014 for profiler stations
站名 敏感性试验1风速均方根误差/(m·s-1) 敏感性试验2风速均方根误差/(m·s-1) 同化本站风廓线雷达资料层数 潮州 4.40 0.94 9 连州 2.20 1.21 9 五华 8.02 7.09 10 新会 19.53 18.08 10 珠海 9.29 6.90 6 阳江 4.59 0.56 0 南雄 0.45 2.33 0 龙门 3.84 6.73 10 从化 6.03 7.12 10 增城 8.28 8.99 7 南沙 14.72 15.74 0 罗定 7.07 9.09 0 
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