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A Circulation Index of the Spring Persistent Rainfall in the South of the Yangtze and Its Synoptic Characteristics
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摘要: 利用东亚和西太平洋对流层低层850 hPa纬向风的经向差异，定义了一个可以表征江南春雨变化特征的环流指数，通过诊断分析探讨该指数与降水和大气环流的关系。结果表明：该指数可以较好地反映江南春雨的年际和逐日变化特征。在年际时间尺度上，高指数年江南春雨偏多，而低指数年江南春雨偏少。该指数的逐日变化与江南地区同期逐日降水变化呈显著正相关。在高指数日，我国江南地区的低压系统和西北太平洋地区的副热带高压偏强，江南地区对流层高层辐散增强，低层辐合和高层辐散的增强为春雨发生提供动力抬升条件，有利于春季江南地区降水的产生；低指数日，西北太平洋副热带高压位置偏南，江南至华南地区对流层低层存在弱辐散，这种形势配合下不利于江南春雨的产生。
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关键词:
- 江南春雨;
- 环流指数;
- 西北太平洋副热带高压
Abstract: Using daily precipitation dataset of 2466 stations over China, daily and monthly reanalysis dataset from 1961 to 2016 by National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), a circulation index of spring persistent rainfall (ISPR) is defined based on latitudinal differences of zonal winds in lower troposphere over the region from East Asia to the western Pacific. Relationships of ISPR with spring persistent rainfall and general circulation is investigated. Results show that the westerly wind from the South of the Yangtze to South China and the easterly wind located in the region from Huanghuai to Jianghuai area in spring is beneficial to the spring persistent rainfall in the South of the Yangtze. Using this characteristic, the spring rainfall circulation index in the South of the Yangtze is defined. In high-index cases, rainfall increases in the South of the Yangtze; and in low-index cases, rainfall decreases. Meanwhile, the index defined not only reflect the annual variation of the spring persistent rainfall, but also can reflect the daily variation of the spring persistent rainfall. The index has good synoptic significance, and is positively correlated with the daily precipitation in the South of the Yangtze. A verification using data from 1961 to 2016 in the South of the Yangtze indicates that this definition of index can reflect the precipitation in most years in the South of the Yangtze in spring. Taking the year of 2016 as an example, results show that the index defined has a clear physical meaning. In high-index cases, the plateau trough and the southern branch of westerly trough are more active. The western Pacific high moves northward anomalously. Confluence of the southwesterly wind from the low trough, the western Pacific high and the cold air from the higher latitude occur from the South of the Yangtze to South China. Low level convergence and high level divergence provide dynamic uplifting conditions for spring persistent rainfall in the South of the Yangtze. In low-index cases, the western Pacific high moves southward anomalously, and anticyclone anomalies cover the mainland of China. The existence of weak divergence in the lower troposphere in the South of the Yangtze to South China goes against persistent rainfall. -
图 1 1961—2016年我国东南部地区春雨期日平均降水量(阴影)及方差(等值线，单位:mm2)分布
Fig. 1 Mean daily precipitation(the shaded) and its variance distribution(the contour, unit:mm2) in the southeast of China in the spring persistent rainfall period from 1961 to 2016
图 2 1961—2016年春雨期降水与同期850 hPa纬向风的相关分布
(阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 2 Correlation of spring persistent rainfall to 850 hPa zonal wind from 1961 to 2016
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 3 1961—2016年春雨期江南区域平均日降水量(柱状)和ISPR标准化系列(折线)
Fig. 3 Variations of the regional mean daily precipitation(the histogram) in the South of the Yangtze and standardized series of ISPR in the spring persisteat rainfall period(the line) from 1961 to 2016
图 4 1961—2016年3月1日—5月15日逐日ISPR与同期降水量相关分布
(阴影区表示达到0.01显著性水平)
Fig. 4 Correlation of daily ISPR to precipitation from 1 Mar to 15 May during 1961-2016
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.01 level)
图 5 1961—2016年3月1日—5月15日逐日ISPR与同期850 hPa纬向风相关分布
(阴影区表示达到0.01显著性水平)
Fig. 5 Correlation of ISPR to 850 hPa zonal wind from 1 Mar to 15 May during 1961-2016
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.01 level)
图 6 我国东南部地区2001年(a)和2016年(b)3月1日—5月15日日降水量距平(单位:mm)
Fig. 6 Daily precipitation anomalies in the southeast of China from 1 Mar to 15 May in 2011(a) and in 2016(b)(unit:mm)
图 7 2011年(a)和2016年(b)春季逐日ISPR标准化序列(折线)与江南地区平均日降水量时间序列(柱状)
Fig. 7 Regional mean daily precipitation(the histogram) in the South of the Yangtze and daily ISPR(the line) in spring of 2011(a) and 2016(b)
图 8 2016年高指数日和低指数日合成的降水差值场(单位：mm)
(阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 8 Precipitation difference in high-and low-index days of 2016(unit:mm)
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05)
图 9 2016年高指数日和低指数日合成的风场(矢量)和散度场(等值线，单位：10-6 s-1)距平(a)高指数日850 hPa，(b)低指数日850 hPa，(c)高指数日500 hPa，(d)低指数日500 hPa，(e)高指数日200 hPa，(f)低指数日200 hPa
Fig. 9 Composite analysis of the wind(the vector) and divergence(the contour, unit:10-6 s-1) anomalies (a)at 850 hPa in high-index cases, (b)at 850 hPa in low-index cases, (c)at 500 hPa in high-index cases, (d)at 500 hPa in low-index cases, (e)at 200 hPa in high-index cases, (f)at 200 hPa in low-index cases
图 10 沿110°~120°E的2016年高指数日(a)和低指数日(b)合成的假相当位温(实线，单位：K)、温度(虚线，单位：K)、垂直环流(矢量)及散度(填色)
Fig. 10 Composite analysis of the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature(the solid line, unit:K), temperature(the dashed line, unit:K), vertical circulation(the vector) and divergence(the shaded) in high-index cases(a) and low-index cases(b) along 110°-120°E
表 1 1961—2016年逐年3月1日—5月15日逐日ISPR与同期逐日江南地区区域平均降水量的相关系数
Table 1 Correlation of daily ISPR to precipitation in the South of the Yangtze from 1 Mar to 15 May during 1961-2016
年份 相关系数 1961 0.56 1962 0.62 1963 0.46 1964 0.34 1965 0.64 1966 0.59 1967 0.48 1968 0.61 1969 0.57 1970 0.62 1971 0.49 1972 0.63 1973 0.48 1974 0.51 1975 0.42 1976 0.33 1977 0.53 1978 0.51 1979 0.42 1980 0.61 1981 0.31 1982 0.22 1983 0.26 1984 0.58 1985 0.32 1986 0.33 1987 0.23 1988 0.36 1989 0.38 1990 0.30 1991 0.15 1992 0.44 1993 0.29 1994 0.26 1995 0.14 1996 0.49 1997 0.35 1998 0.39 1999 0.33 2000 0.59 2001 0.41 2002 0.22 2003 0.32 2004 0.35 2005 0.36 2006 0.39 2007 0.16 2008 0.60 2009 0.15 2010 0.37 2011 0.58 2012 0.58 2013 0.59 2014 0.46 2015 0.34 2016 0.46 
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