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Catastrophe Distinction Index of Oilseed Rape Vernal Waterlogging in Hunan
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摘要: 以湖南省油菜为研究对象，综合洪涝与连阴雨的致灾因子，利用历史灾情数据反演涝渍过程样本，构建临灾、受灾状态样本，采用均值t检验方法，定量分析不同降水累积衰减系数w情况下，降水因子差异的显著性，构建有效累积降水量PE。基于Fisher判别准则，计算涝渍灾害临灾与受灾的临界线，构建逐日动态的油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标y，并进行涝渍过程样本反演及独立样本验证。分析春季涝渍受灾频率与相对气象产量的关系，构建灾害影响评价模型。结果表明：当w=0.899时，受灾与临灾样本PE的差异最显著。灾变判别指标y可逐日动态监测涝渍灾变过程及灾害后续影响，为动态监测区域油菜涝渍过程提供了数据支撑；指标指示的灾变范围与实际受灾情况基本一致，为区域防灾减灾提供了科学参考。开花期及结荚期湖南油菜涝渍受灾频率较高，成熟期较低。湖南省油菜春季涝渍灾害影响指数呈东南高西北低，长沙东部、株洲中部及北部、湘潭、永州及郴州中部油菜产量受涝渍灾害影响最重。Abstract: Focusing on the oilseed rape waterlogging in Hunan, several waterlogging process samples are picked out from historical disaster information to build the impending hazard sample set and affected sample set. As disaster-causing factors in different status have significant difference, t-test is used to quantify the significance of precipitation factor difference in different attenuation coefficients and create effective accumulation preparation (PE). According to PE and continuous cloudy days (D), the critical line is derived from Fisher principle to build oilseed rape vernal waterlogging catastrophe distinction index which can distinguish the affected status day by day. The waterlogging catastrophe index is verified by inverting waterlogging process samples and calculating the value of independent samples. By calculating the affected frequency of waterlogging in each site, and the waterlogging catastrophe index, the relationship between the frequency of waterlogging damage and the relative meteorological yields is studied, and the waterlogging impact evaluation model is constructed. Results show that current precipitation and antecedent precipitation have significant effects on the formation of the waterlogging disaster in Hunan. When the influence attenuation coefficient is 0.899, the difference between PE of the impending hazard sample set and affected sample set is most significant. The oilseed rape vernal waterlogging catastrophe distinction index can be used to monitor the waterlogged catastrophe process on a daily basis, and indicate the catastrophe time and the intensity of the disaster, providing theoretical support for the dynamic monitoring of regional oilseed rape waterlogging process and a new idea for the real-time monitoring and early warning of the precipitation process. In the independent sample verification, the maximum value of waterlogging catastrophe index shows a similar distribution with disaster records, and can reflect the actual disaster situation. It can be a better scientific basis for regional disaster controlling and preventing. According to analysis results, the waterlogging-affected frequency of oilseed rape in Hunan shows an overall trend of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The waterlogging-affected frequency is higher in flowering and fruiting period and lower in mature period. The waterlogging disaster in fruiting period has the most significant effects on the oilseed rape relative meteorological yields. Oilseed rape vernal waterlogged disaster influence index shows a trend of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The rape yield is most affected by waterlogged disaster in the east of Changsha, central and north of Zhuzhou, Xiangtan, Yongzhou and the middle of Chenzhou.
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Key words:
- Hunan;
- oilseed rape;
- agricultural waterlogging;
- discriminant index
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图 1 湖南省97个气象站及油菜种植范围
Fig. 1 97 meteorological stations and oilseed rape plantation in Hunan
图 2 1961—2000年湖南省平均有效累积降水量PE与油菜相对气象产量的线性关系
Fig. 2 Linear relationship beteewn relative meteorological yields and the mean of PE in Hunan from 1961 to 2000
图 3 临灾样本与受灾样本分布及临界线
Fig. 3 The distribution of impending hazard samples and affected samples with their critical line
图 4 涝渍过程起止时间内及结束后涝渍灾变指标y的时间演变
Fig. 4 The temporal variation of y during and after the waterlogging process
图 5 独立验证样本中涝渍灾变指标最大值ymax的空间分布
Fig. 5 The spatial distribution of ymax in independent samples
图 6 1961—2010年湖南省油菜开花期、结荚期及成熟期涝渍受灾频率空间分布
Fig. 6 Disaster frequency of oilseed rape waterlogging in Hunan from 1961 to 2010
图 7 1961—2010年湖南省油菜春季涝渍影响指数
Fig. 7 The effect index of oilseed rape vernal waterlogging in Hunan from 1961 to 2010
表 2 湖南省春季有效累积降水量PE与连阴日数D的气候平均值
Table 2 Climatological mean of PE and D of Hunan in spring
生育期 PE/mm D/d 开花期 33.19 3.22 结荚期 55.28 1.91 成熟期 62.66 1.32 
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表 3 灾变判别指数y对涝渍过程样本的判灾结果
Table 3 The discriminant result by catastrophe discriminant index y to waterlogging samples
生育期 致灾降水过程类型 样本量 判灾比例/% 开花期 连阴雨 35 88.57 洪涝 5 80.00 结荚期 强寒潮伴降雪 11 0.00 连阴雨 49 85.71 洪涝 37 100 成熟期 连阴雨 20 75.00 洪涝 80 83.75 跨生育期 连阴雨 26 100
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表 4 涝渍过程样本的致灾特征
Table 4 Disaster-causing characteristics of waterlogging precess samples
生育期 致灾降水过程类型 平均过程日数/d 平均致灾滞后日数/d 平均致灾延长日数/d 开花期 连阴雨 13 5 2 洪涝 5 1 12 结荚期 连阴雨 15 5 2 洪涝 9 2 6 成熟期 连阴雨 12 4 1 洪涝 4 1 7 跨生育期 连阴雨 29 4 1
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表 5 油菜春季涝渍过程灾变判别指标验证
Table 5 Validation of waterlogging catastrophe index
起止时间 历史记录发生地点 灾害类型 指标计算灾变范围 符合程度 2006-05-01—10 张家界、常德、郴州、永州、邵阳、怀化等地 洪涝灾害 湖南全省大部受灾，张家界、常德、郴州、永州、邵阳、怀化等地是ymax大值区 符合 2009-02-15—03-09 湘中以北、郴州、永州等地 连阴雨 湖南全省受灾，湘中以北是ymax大值区 符合 2009-04-18 怀化、常德、长沙 洪涝灾害 常德及益阳、娄底、怀化、长沙部分地区受灾 较符合 2009-05-16—20 郴州、永州 洪涝灾害 郴州、永州受灾 符合 2009-05-22—29 湘北 连阴雨 岳阳、长沙等地受灾 基本符合 2010-03-29—04-26 湘中、湘东南、衡阳、株洲、怀化、岳阳等地 连阴雨 湖南全省受灾，湘中是ymax大值区 符合
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