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Indicators of Chilling Damage for Spring Maize Based on Heat Index in Northeast China
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摘要: 构建春玉米冷害指标是冷害研究的基础，对我国春玉米安全生产和品种布局具有重要参考意义。以我国东北三省春玉米为研究对象，以具有明确生物学意义的热量指数为春玉米冷害指示因子，利用气象资料、春玉米生育期资料和冷害灾情资料，计算春玉米不同生育阶段平均热量指数，建立春玉米冷害样本序列，基于K-S分布拟合检验和95%置信区间上限阈值的方法，厘定春玉米冷害指标阈值，构建我国东北春玉米不同生育阶段冷害指标，并采用独立的春玉米冷害灾情样本验证指标的合理性。研究结果表明：东北三省春玉米冷害指标在生殖生长和营养生长与生殖生长并进期热量指数的阈值较高，营养生长期略低；指标验证结果与历史灾情记录完全吻合的比率为80.0%，完全吻合和相差1级的比率为100%，且各灾害程度验证得到的准确率均高于75%。Abstract: Chilling damage is one of the most destructive disasters for spring maize in Northeast China (Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and Liaoning Province). Proper indicators of spring maize chilling damage are important for understanding the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of disaster, dynamic monitoring, early warning, and conducting risk assessment. Therefore, it is of great scientific significance for the safe production and reasonable spatial planting of spring maize in China. Daily time series of air temperature during the past 55 years (1961-2015) at 82 meteorological stations, phenology at different developmental stages of spring maize from 1981 to 2013 at 61 agro-meteorological stations, and historical chilling damage records during the past 55 years (1961-2015) are jointly used to establish chilling damage indicators of spring maize at different developmental stages. The heat index with significant biological basis is selected as a factor, and its average at different developmental stages of spring maize is calculated based on three physiological temperatures. And then, 15 heat index sets of spring maize chilling damage samples collected from historical disaster records are built in the context of the combinations of five developmental stages of spring maize (seedling to clover, clover to jointing, jointing to blossom, blossom to milk, milk to physiological maturity) and three chilling damage levels (light, moderate, and severe). Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test method is used in checking the best distribution fitting functions of the heat index sets, and 15 normal distribution functions are established by comparing three fitting functions, including normal distribution, exponent distribution, and evenly distribution. Each critical threshold of spring maize chilling damage levels at different developmental stages is determined by using the upper limit of 95% confidence interval. The rationality of the spring maize chilling damage indicator is validated by using 25 independent samples. Results show that the verification based on the spring maize chilling damage level indicators is detected to be basically consistent with historical records, with 80% assessment being thoroughly consistent and all the errors of validation samples being within one level. Meanwhile, consistent rates of chilling damage indicators for three chilling damage levels are all above 75%.
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图 1 研究区气象站和农业气象站分布
Fig. 1 The spatial distribution of meteorological stations and agro-meteorological stations in the target area
图 2 东北三省典型站有无冷害年春玉米热量差逐日变化
Fig. 2 Daily heat index difference for spring maize with chilling or chilling-free damages at three typical stations in Northeast China
图 3 东北三省典型站有无冷害年春玉米累积热量差变化
Fig. 3 Accumulated heat index difference for spring maize with chilling or chilling-free damages at three typical stations in Northeast China
表 1 高产条件下春玉米各生育阶段三基点温度
Table 1 Three physiological temperatures at different developmental stages of spring maize under high-yielding conditions
生育时段 生育阶段 简称 T1/℃ T2/℃ T0/℃ 营养生长期 出苗-三叶期 S1 8.0 27.0 20.0 三叶-拔节期 S2 11.5 30.0 24.5 营养生长与生殖生长并进期 拔节-开花期 S3 14.0 33.0 27.0 生殖生长期 开花-乳熟期 S4 14.0 32.0 25.5 乳熟-成熟期 S5 10.0 30.0 19.0 
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表 2 春玉米各生育阶段不同冷害等级样本量
Table 2 The information of chilling damage samples at different developmental stages of spring maize
生育阶段 轻度冷害样本量 中度冷害样本量 重度冷害样本量 指标构建 指标验证 指标构建 指标验证 指标构建 指标验证 S1 11 2 17 1 37 2 S2 31 1 24 3 26 3 S3 11 1 8 1 14 1 S4 40 3 50 1 20 1 S5 36 2 27 1 15 2
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表 3 不同时段春玉米冷害样本量
Table 3 The information of chilling damage samples for spring maize in different decades
时段 指标构建样本 指标验证样本 轻度冷害 中度冷害 重度冷害 1961—1970年 27 1 18 5 1971—1980年 54 12 61 5 1981—1990年 20 42 18 8 1991—2000年 18 23 14 2 2001—2015年 10 18 1 5
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表 4 春玉米冷害指标构建样本平均热量指数统计特征
Table 4 Statistical characteristics of average heat index for modeling samples of spring maize chilling damage
生育阶段 冷害等级 样本量 平均热量指数 标准差 最小热量指数 最大热量指数 轻度 11 64.08 10.46 36.72 72.19 S1 中度 17 58.42 10.43 39.18 73.47 重度 37 51.78 11.81 25.25 75.48 轻度 31 67.06 5.95 56.98 77.05 S2 中度 24 61.42 8.08 41.82 80.10 重度 26 52.12 11.44 27.35 72.04 轻度 11 73.11 4.18 66.59 81.76 S3 中度 8 64.76 4.71 56.01 70.26 重度 14 57.53 7.66 43.69 70.97 轻度 40 71.56 10.09 50.79 85.57 S4 中度 20 64.60 8.20 50.62 76.60 重度 20 59.10 8.62 42.12 69.97 轻度 36 69.29 8.38 50.90 86.63 S5 中度 27 64.13 6.40 50.18 75.58 重度 15 58.21 7.06 46.64 76.80
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表 5 不同分布型函数对春玉米冷害样本热量指数序列拟合的K-S检验结果
Table 5 K-S test results of heat index for chilling damage samples of spring maize based on different distribution functions
生育阶段 冷害等级 显著性检验 正态分布 均匀分布 指数分布 轻度 0.628 0.008 0.009 S1 中度 0.977 0.798 0.001 重度 0.633 0.267 0.000 轻度 0.926 0.990 0.000 S2 中度 0.895 0.096 0.000 重度 0.981 0.185 0.000 轻度 0.947 0.700 0.001 S3 中度 0.888 0.440 0.009 重度 0.760 0.953 0.001 轻度 0.603 0.076 0.000 S4 中度 0.416 0.307 0.000 重度 0.623 0.204 0.000 轻度 0.912 0.226 0.000 S5 中度 0.829 0.386 0.000 重度 0.790 0.026 0.000
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表 6 春玉米不同冷害等级样本序列95%置信区间热量指数
Table 6 95% confidence ranges of heat index at different developmental stages for spring maize at different chilling damage levels
生育阶段 轻度冷害 中度冷害 重度冷害 S1 57.1~71.1 53.1~63.8 47.8~55.7 S2 64.9~69.2 58.0~64.8 47.5~56.7 S3 70.3~75.9 60.8~68.7 53.1~61.9 S4 68.3~74.8 60.8~68.4 55.1~63.1 S5 66.5~72.1 61.6~66.7 54.3~62.1
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表 7 基于热量指数的东北三省春玉米各生育阶段冷害等级指标
Table 7 Chilling damage indicators for spring maize at different developmental stages based on heat index
生育阶段 重度冷害 中度冷害 轻度冷害 无冷害 S1 [0, 55.5] (55.5, 64.0] (64.0, 71.0] (71.0, 100] S2 [0, 56.5] (56.5, 65.0] (65.0, 69.0] (69.0, 100] S3 [0, 62.0] (62.0, 68.5] (68.5, 76.0] (76.0, 100] S4 [0, 63.0] (63.0, 68.5] (68.5, 75.0] (75.0, 100] S5 [0, 62.0] (62.0, 66.5] (66.5, 72.0] (72.0, 100]
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表 8 东北三省春玉米冷害指标验证
Table 8 Validation of chilling damage indicators for spring maize in Northeast China
生育阶段 轻度冷害 中度冷害 重度冷害 准确率/% 总样本量 验证正确量 总样本量 验证正确量 总样本量 验证正确量 S1 2 2 1 1 2 0 60.0 S2 1 1 3 3 3 3 100.0 S3 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0 S4 3 2 1 1 1 1 80.0 S5 2 1 1 0 2 2 60.0
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表 9 典型站有无冷害年春玉米不同生育阶段低温冷害日数比例(单位：%)
Table 9 Day ratios with chilling or chilling-free damages for spring maize at different developmental stages of three typical stations in Northeast China (unit:%)
站点 生育阶段 生育阶段日数 2007年 1969年 轻度 中度 重度 轻度 中度 重度 S1 8 d 25.0 25.0 12.5 12.5 0.0 87.5 S2 37 d 2.7 0.0 8.1 8.1 13.5 35.1 海伦 S3 21 d 14.3 0.0 19.0 23.8 14.3 9.5 S4 29 d 6.9 6.9 3.4 10.3 27.6 27.6 S5 28 d 3.6 3.6 7.1 0.0 7.1 32.1 S1 9 d 0.0 11.1 22.2 22.2 22.2 33.3 S2 38 d 5.3 7.9 10.5 7.9 5.3 42.1 扶余 S3 24 d 8.3 8.3 4.2 4.2 0.0 8.3 S4 26 d 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 3.8 S5 29 d 0.0 3.4 0.0 6.9 0.0 13.8 S1 8 d 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 50.0 S2 39 d 7.7 7.7 2.6 7.7 2.6 35.9 抚顺 S3 25 d 24.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 4.0 4.0 S4 28 d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 S5 26 d 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 3.8
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