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Process Grade Indicator Construction and Evolution Characteristics of Late Rice Flood in Hunan
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摘要: 以湖南晚稻为研究对象，基于1961—2010年双季晚稻种植区68个气象站的降水资料、17个农业气象观测站的生育期观测资料，采用历史灾情反演方法，构建晚稻大田生长期3个生育时段、3个洪涝等级的洪涝灾害样本125个，应用Q-Q图拟合、W检验和t分布区间估计方法，计算晚稻分生育期（移栽-分蘖期、拔节-孕穗期、抽穗-成熟期）不同洪涝致灾等级（轻、中、重）的过程降水量临界值，构建晚稻洪涝过程等级指标，并进行独立样本验证检验；应用M-K检验等方法分析1961—2010年湖南晚稻洪涝的时空演变特征。结果表明：指标验证与历史记录有较高一致性；同一洪涝等级的指标阈值从大到小依次为抽穗-成熟期、拔节-孕穗期、移栽-分蘖期；20世纪60年代和90年代是湖南晚稻洪涝发生最严重的年代，总洪涝次数在1994年发生突变；晚稻轻涝在抽穗-成熟期发生率最高，中涝和重涝在拔节-孕穗期发生率最高；总洪涝的高发地区位于郴州、岳阳地区；随年代推移，晚稻各等级洪涝和总洪涝高发区均呈现由北向南的变化。Abstract: Focusing on the late rice in Hunan, daily precipitation data during 1961-2010 from 68 meteorological stations and phenophase data from 17 agrometeorological observation stations in Hunan are analyzed, and 125 late rice flood process precipitation samples are recognized, including disasters of 3 growth stages (transplanting-tillering, jointing-booting, blooming-maturity) and 3 flood grades (light, moderate, severe). Quantile-quantile plot, Shapiro-Wilk test and Student's t-distribution are employed for the suitability test and critical value calculation of flood process precipitation samples from each flood disaster sample sets. And then, late rice flood disaster grade indicators during different growth periods are determined by critical values and verified by independent samples. Temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of late rice flood disaster in Hunan are analyzed based on the constructed flood level indicators, M-K test and ArcGIS. Results show that, there is high consistency between indicator verification result and history record, indicating the constructed flood level indicators can reflect the actual late rice flood disaster situation. Thresholds of the same flood grade in different growth periods are different, ascending from transplanting-tillering stage, jointing-booting stage to blooming-maturity stage. Main occurrence years of Hunan late rice flood are 1961, 1969, 1980, 1987, 1988, 1994 and 1997. Late rice flood disaster is most serious in the 1960s and the 1990s, and the total flood frequency mutated in 1994 and declined afterwards. The total flood frequency of late rice is highest in transplanting-tillering stage, followed by jointing-booting stage, and blooming-maturity stage is the lowest. Light flood has the highest incidence rate during blooming-maturity period, while moderate and severe flood both has the highest incidence rate during jointing-booting period. The total flood frequency during transplanting-tillering and blooming-maturity periods decrease after the year of 2000, but are still similar to the 1990s during jointing-booting stage. The flood-prone areas are located in Chenzhou and Yueyang, severe floods mainly located in mountain area in Loudi and Chenzhou, and areas with relatively less flood are mainly located in central and southern Hunan (the Hengshao Basin). The occurrence of late rice flood disaster gradually decreases from the 1960s to the 1980s, then increases in the 1990s, and decreases in the 2000s. The flood-prone area of each grade and total all moves from the north to the south in Hunan these years.
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图 1 研究区域气象站与农业气象观测站分布
Fig. 1 Meteorological stations and agrometeorological stations in the target region
图 2 湖南晚稻洪涝过程降水量样本序列不同概率函数的Q-Q图拟合
Fig. 2 Quantile-quantile plots in different probability function of late rice flood process precipitation
图 3 1961—2010年湖南晚稻总洪涝次数的时间变化(a)和M-K统计量曲线(b)
Fig. 3 Temporal distribution and Mann-Kendall test of total flood frequency during whole growth period of late rice in Hunan from 1961 to 2010
图 4 湖南晚稻各生育时段各等级洪涝和总洪涝次数时间变化
Fig. 4 Temporal distribution of each grade and total flood frequency during different growth periods of late rice in Hunan
图 5 1961—2010年湖南晚稻不同生育时段和全生育期总洪涝频次空间分布
Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of total flood frequency during different growth periods and whole growth period of late rice in Hunan from 1961 to 2010
图 6 1961—2010年湖南晚稻全生育期不同等级洪涝频次空间分布
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of each flood grade frequency during whole growth stage of late rice in Hunan from 1961 to 2010
图 7 1961—2010年湖南晚稻全生育总洪涝频次分布年代际变化
Fig. 7 Decadal distribution of total flood frequency in whole growth period of late rice in Hunan from 1961 to 2010
表 1 湖南晚稻洪涝灾害样本分布
Table 1 Detail information of late rice flood disaster samples in Hunan
生育时段 轻涝样本量 中涝样本量 重涝样本量 总样本量 移栽-分蘖期 43 12 6 61 拔节-孕穗期 16 9 4 29 抽穗-成熟期 10 5 15 全生育期 69 26 10 105 
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表 2 湖南晚稻洪涝灾害等级指标
Table 2 Grade indicators of late rice flood disaster in Hunan
生育时段 洪涝等级 过程降水量/mm 轻涝 [131**, 187*) 移栽-分蘖期 中涝 [187*, 251**) 重涝 [251***, +∞) 轻涝 [133**, 190*) 拔节-孕穗期 中涝 [190*, 264*) 重涝 [264**, +∞) 轻涝 [137**, 209*) 抽穗-成熟期 中涝 [209**, 277*) 重涝 [277, +∞) 注：*表示达到0.01显著性水平，**表示达到0.05显著性水平，***表示达到0.1显著性水平。
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表 3 湖南晚稻洪涝指标的验证结果
Table 3 Flood grade validation result of late rice in Hunan
灾害时间段 历史记录中灾害地点及程度 指标计算灾害地点及程度 符合程度 1972-08-18—19 资兴、桂阳、桂东、蓝山、郴州、宜章受灾，部分成灾 资兴轻涝、桂阳轻涝、桂东轻涝、蓝山轻涝、郴州中涝 基本符合 1981-08-10—18 华容淹田 华容轻涝 符合 1991-09-07—08 湘东南桂东等县受灾，部分成灾 桂东轻涝、郴州轻涝、桂东中涝 符合 1995-08-01—03 湘东北临湘、汨罗等县受灾，部分成灾 汨罗轻涝、平江轻涝、临湘重涝 基本符合 2007-08-19—22 湘东、湘南地区汝城、安仁、永兴、耒阳、桂东、炎陵、茶陵绝收 汝城重涝、安仁重涝、永兴重涝、耒阳重涝、桂东重涝、炎陵重涝、茶陵重涝 符合
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