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Numerical Simulation of Hygroscopic Seeding Effects on Warm Convective Clouds and Rainfall Reduction
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摘要: 利用以色列特拉维夫大学二维面对称分档云模式（two-dimensional slab-symmetric detailed spectral bin microphysical model of Tel Aviv University），对2016年9月4日16：00（北京时）前后我国华东地区的一次暖性浅对流云降水过程进行模拟，模式模拟的强回波中心高度和最大回波强度范围与观测基本一致。并在此基础上进行了小于1 μm的吸湿性核的播撒减雨试验，分别考虑了不同播撒时间、不同播撒高度以及不同播撒剂量的敏感性测试。结果表明：在云的发展阶段早期播撒能起到更好的减雨效果，播撒时间越早对大粒子生长过程的抑制作用越强，随着播撒时间向后推移，受抑制作用最显著的粒径段向小粒径端偏移；在云中心过饱和度大的区域下方进行播撒，减雨效果更加明显，当播撒剂量为350 cm-3时，地面累积降水量减少率可达23.3%；另外，随着播撒剂量的增加，减雨效果更加显著，甚至能达到消雨的效果。因此，在暖性浅对流云中合理地播撒小于1 μm的吸湿性核能达到较好的减雨或消雨效果。Abstract: With the rapid development of social economy, the frequency of various large-scale and important events is also getting higher and higher. In order to host events more smoothly, the need of society for artificial precipitation suppression technologies during major events is also urgent. Hygroscopic seeding is an important way to suppress precipitation artificially. Although previous research on artificial precipitation suppression basically confirms that the hygroscopic nuclei of smaller than 1 μm can inhibit the convective cloud precipitation, how to use it more effectively to achieve the best effect is still a difficult problem in precipitation research. In order to provide some useful theoretical references for artificial precipitation suppression operations, a two-dimensional slab-symmetric detailed spectral bin microphysical model of Tel Aviv University in Israel is used to simulate the warm shallow convective cloud and precipitation in East China at about 1600 BT on 4 September 2016. The height of the strong radar reflectivity center and the range of high radar reflectivity are basically consistent with observations. The cloud seeding experiments with hygroscopic nuclei smaller than 1 μm are conducted in order to examine sensitivities of seeding effects to seeding time, seeding height and seeding amounts of particles, respectively. Results show that the early seeding in the cloud development stage can lead to more significant effect on rainfall suppression. The earlier the seeding time is, the stronger the inhibition of the growth of large particles. As the seeding time goes backwards, the particle size segment with the most significant inhibition shifts to smaller particle size; the effect of rainfall suppression is more obvious when seeding is carried out just below the area with large supersaturation in the center of cloud. Since a large number of hygroscopic nuclei seeded here enter the supersaturation zone, they are activated to be small cloud droplets, and the cloud water conversion and collision process are suppressed. The reduction rate of ground accumulated precipitation reaches 23.3% when the seeding concentration is 350 cm-3. In addition, with the increase of seeding amounts of hygroscopic nuclei, the precipitation suppression effect is more significant, and the rain is even eliminated. Therefore, seeding hygroscopic nuclei smaller than 1 μm properly in warm shallow convective clouds can achieve expected results of reducing or eliminating rain.
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图 1 2016年9月4日杭州站雷达回波强度垂直剖面观测与模拟对比
(a)15:55观测，(b)16:00观测，(c)16:17观测，(d)积分第34分钟模拟结果，(e)积分第39分钟模拟结果(等值线为0℃)，(f)积分第56分钟模拟结果
Fig. 1 Comparison of observed and simulated radar echo intensity vertical profiles at Hangzhou station on 4 Sep 2016
(a)observation at 1555 BT, (b)observation at 1600 BT, (c)observation at 1617 BT, (d)simulation at the 34th minute, (e)simulation at the 39th minute (the contour denotes 0℃), (f)simulation at the 56th minute
图 2 云核心区各高度液水混合比最大值(白色圆点处为云发展阶段最大液水混合比所在位置)(a)和地面平均降水强度(b)
Fig. 2 The maximum liquid-water mixing ratio at each height in the core area of the cloud(the white point is the location of the maximum liquid-water mixing ratio in the cloud development stage)(a) and the average ground rainfall rate(b)
图 3 不同播撒时间地面平均降水强度(a)和自然云发展阶段最大液水混合比所在格点(图 2a白色圆点位置)液滴质量谱分布(b)
Fig. 3 The average ground rainfall rate(a) and the droplet mass spectra of grid where liquid-water mixing ratio of natural cloud during development stage is maximum (position of white dot in Fig. 2a)(b) in sensitive experiments of different seeding time
图 4 不同高度播撒时地面平均降水强度(a)和云核心区液滴最大碰并收集率(b)
Fig. 4 The average ground rainfall rate(a) and the maximum collision and collection rate of droplets in the core area of cloud(b) in sensitive experiments of different seeding height
图 5 不同高度播撒试验中云核心区云滴的最大数浓度与最大质量浓度以及播撒结束后(模式积分第18分钟)云体水平中心平均云滴数浓度谱与质量谱分布
(a)最大数浓度，(b)最大质量浓度，(c)平均云滴数浓度谱，(d)平均云滴质量谱
Fig. 5 The maximum number concentration and mass concentration of cloud droplets in the cloud core area with the average droplet number concentration and mass concentration spectra in the horizontal center of cloud after seeding (the 18th minute of simulation) in sensitive experiments of different seeding height
(a)maximum number concentration, (b)maximum mass concentration, (c)average number concentration spectra, (d)average mass concentration spectra
图 6 模式积分第14分钟时的风场、水面过饱和边界(实线，相对湿度为100%)以及云的边界(虚线，云水混合比大于0.01 g·kg-1格点认为是云区)
Fig. 6 The wind field, vapor supersaturation boundary (the solid line, relative humidity is 100%) and cloud boundary (the dotted line, the grid of cloud water mixing ratio larger than 0.01 g·kg-1 is considered to be cloud area) at the 14th minute of simulation
图 7 播撒不同剂量的吸湿性核时地面平均降水强度(a)和云核心区液滴最大碰并收集率(b)
Fig. 7 The average ground rainfall rate(a) and the maximum collision and collection rate of droplets in the core area of cloud(b) in sensitive experiments of different seeding amounts
表 1 自然与播撒的云凝结核谱参数
Table 1 Natural and seeded cloud condensation nuclei spectra parameters
模态 自然谱 播撒谱 ni/cm-3 Ri/μm lgσi ni/cm-3 Ri/μm lgσi 1 670 0.09 0.2 350 0.15 0.2 2 0.046 1.7 0.3 0.245 0.5 0.4 3 8.05×10-4 5 0.6 
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表 2 播撒试验参数及结果对比
Table 2 Parameters and results of sensitive experiments
试验 时间(积分时间) 高度/km 剂量/cm-3 总降水变化/% 雨强峰值时间(积分时间) C1 第13—17分钟 1.5 350 -15.7 第45分钟 C2 第17—21分钟 1.5 350 -13.0 第44分钟 C3 第21—25分钟 1.5 350 -7.2 第44分钟 C4 第25—29分钟 1.5 350 -2.2 第44分钟 C5 第13—17分钟 1.8 350 -23.3 第45分钟 C6 第13—17分钟 2.4 350 -4.7 第44分钟 C7 第13—17分钟 1.8 1750 -71.0 第46分钟 C8 第13—17分钟 1.8 3500 -92.7 C9 第13—17分钟 1.8 7000 -99.0
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