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Recent Advances on Sub-seasonal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon
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摘要: 东亚夏季风次季节（10~90 d）变化是中国夏季持续性强降水、高温热浪等高影响天气事件的重要环流载体，处于天气预报上限和气候季节预测下限之间的预报过渡区。研究表明：东亚夏季风次季节变化是东亚夏季风的固有物理特征，它和季节进程之间的时间锁相关系是东亚夏季风次季节变化潜在可预报性的重要来源。东亚夏季风次季节变化与Madden-Julian振荡（MJO）存在显著差异，试图通过MJO来预测东亚夏季风次季节变化的不确定性较大。东亚夏季风次季节预测的另一重要来源是下垫面外强迫，包括欧亚大陆春季积雪、中国东部春季土壤湿度和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件。此外，去趋势偏-交叉相关分析统计方法能够分析东亚夏季风多因子和多时间尺度问题。目前，亟需解决的科学问题包括：东亚夏季风次季节模态的客观定量描述、造成东亚夏季风次季节模态年际变化的关键物理过程、不同外强迫因子对东亚夏季风次季节模态的共同影响。
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关键词:
- 东亚夏季风;
- 次季节变化;
- 热带和热带外环流间相互作用;
- 外强迫因子的共同影响
Abstract: The sub-seasonal (10-90 days) variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is crucial for extreme climate disasters (e.g., persistent heavy rainfall and heat waves) in China, which is a blind spot between the upper weather forecast and the seasonal prediction. Recent advances of EASM on sub-seasonal timescale are reported, including features of EASM sub-seasonal variation, influences of mid-latitudinal Eurasian soil moisture and snow cover, as well as the tropical air-sea interaction. Results show the potential predictability of EASM sub-seasonal variability depends on the phase-locking between the sub-seasonal variability and seasonal cycle of EASM. The sub-seasonal variation of EASM is the intrinsic physical mode, which is different from the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It is featured by the intra-seasonal interaction among the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the South Asian High (SAH) and the Mongolian cyclone (MC), along with the alternation of sub-seasonal rain belt in China. The onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), the emergence of Meiyu over the Yangtze River and the starting of rainy season in North China are critical for both the seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in China. In mid-May, the eastward extension of SAH onto the South China Sea is vertically coupled with the retreat of WPSH, leading to the onset of SCSSM. Afterwards, the temporal evolution of sub-seasonal modes induced by WPSH, SAH and MC determines the beginning of rainy season over the Yangtze River and North China. Another predicting source of EASM sub-seasonal variation is the interaction between underlying forcing and atmospheric circulation. On one hand, the spring soil moisture over East China acts as an important precursor of summer monsoon onset and anomalous summer rainfall, and the spring snow cover over Eurasian continent could modulate the rainfall over South China. On the other hand, the relationship between tropical air-sea interaction and SCSSM onset shows evident interdecadal variation. The decaying rate of ENSO events and the mid-latitudinal wave activity in the upper troposphere can alter the sub-seasonal variation of EASM on interannual timescale. In addition, a new detrended DPCCA method is developed to investigate the interaction among multi-factors of EASM on multi-timescales. Unsolved questions about the sub-seasonal variation of EASM include objectively qualifying EASM sub-seasonal modes, the crucial process affecting year-by-year changes of EASM sub-seasonal modes, and co-effects of underlying factors on EASM sub-seasonal modes. -
图 1 气候平均南海夏季风爆发进程(a)第27候360 K等熵位涡(阴影，单位：PVU)和风场(矢量，单位：m·s-1)，(b)第29候对流层上部非绝热加热(阴影，单位：K·d-1)和气温(等值线，单位：K)，(c)第27候沿110°~120°E平均的非绝热加热(阴影，单位：K·d-1)、正位涡平流(等值线，单位：10-5 PVU·s-1)和局地经圈环流(矢量，单位：m·s-1，红色箭头表示上升运动)，(d)第29候沿110°~120°E平均的非绝热加热(阴影，单位：K·d-1)、正位涡平流(等值线，单位：10-5 PVU·s-1)和局地经圈环流(矢量，单位：m·s-1，红色箭头表示上升运动)，(e)第27候OLR(单位：W·m-2)水平分布，(f)第29候OLR(单位：W·m-2)水平分布
Fig. 1 Climatological onset process of South China Sea summer monsoon (a)360 K isentropic potential vorticity(the shaded, unit:PVU) and winds(vectors, unit:m·s-1) in Pentad 27, (b)upper-tropospheric diabatic heating(the shaded, unit:K·d-1) and air temperature(contours, unit:K) in Pentad 29, (c)110°-120°E averaged latitude-pressure cross section of diabatic heating(the shaded, unit:K·d-1), positive PV advection(contours, unit:10-5 PVU·s-1) and local meridional circulation (vectors, unit:m·s-1, upper-level ascending is represented by bold arrows) in Pentad 27, (d)110°-120°E averaged latitude-pressure cross section of diabatic heating(the shaded, unit:K·d-1), positive PV advection(contours, unit:10-5 PVU·s-1) and local meridional circulation (vectors, unit:m·s-1, upper-level ascending is represented by bold arrows) in Pentad 29, (e)the horizontal distribution of OLR(unit:W·m-2) in Pentad 27, (f)the horizontal distribution of OLR(unit:W·m-2) in Pentad 29
图 2 东亚夏季风气候次季节(40~80 d)主模态的空间分布特征(填色表示降水，矢量表示风场) (a)第1模态回归的降水场和850 hPa风场，(b)第2模态回归的降水场和850 hPa风场，(c)第1模态回归的200 hPa风场，(d)第2模态回归的200 hPa风场
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of the climatological sub-seasonal(40-80 d) modes of the EASM (the shaded denotes rainfall, the vector denotes wind) (a)the rainfall and 850 hPa wind field regressed against the first dominant mode, (b)the rainfall and 850 hPa wind field regressed against the second dominant mode, (c)200 hPa wind field regressed against the first dominant mode, (d)200 hPa wind field regressed against the second dominant mode
图 3 中国东部春季土壤湿度异常对夏季降水的影响[68] (a)土壤湿度3月加湿试验减去控制试验的夏季降水率差值(单位：mm·d-1)，(b)土壤湿度3月减湿试验减去控制试验的夏季降水率差值(单位：mm·d-1)
Fig. 3 Influences of spring soil moisture on the summer rainfall over East China(from Reference [68]) (anomalies are defined by results of sensitivity-minus-control runs) (a)rainfall anomalies(unit:mm·d-1) in sensitivity experiments forced by the wetter soil moisture in March, (b)rainfall anomalies(unit:mm·d-1) in sensitivity experiments forced by the drier soil moisture in March
图 4 欧亚大陆春季积雪对我国降水异常的影响[69](阴影区表示达到0.05显著性水平) (a)CFSR 3月雪水当量回归的台站观测的夏季降水，(b)CFSR 4月雪水当量回归的台站观测的夏季降水，(c)CFSR 5月雪水当量回归的台站观测的夏季降水，(d)CFSv2 3月初始值回报的夏季降水回归的回报时间为零的雪水当量，(e)CFSv2 4月初始值回报的夏季降水回归的回报时间为零的雪水当量，(f)CFSv2 5月初始值回报的夏季降水回归的回报时间为零的雪水当量
Fig. 4 Effects of spring snow over the Eurasian continent on the rainfall anomaly in China(from Reference [69]) (the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level) (a)in-situ rainfall in JJA regressed against the snow water equivalent during Mar in CFSR, (b)in-situ rainfall in JJA regressed against the snow water equivalent during Apr in CFSR, (c)in-situ rainfall in JJA regressed against the snow water equivalent during May in CFSR, (d)snow water equivalent in zero leading month regressed against the predicted JJA rainfall starting from Mar in CFSv2, (e)snow water equivalent in zero leading month regressed against the predicted JJA rainfall starting from Apr in CFSv2, (f)snow water equivalent in zero leading month regressed against the predicted JJA rainfall starting from May in CFSv2
图 5 不同年代影响南海夏季风爆发时间的海温异常(a)1980—1993年的4月海温关键区，(b)1994—2014年的4月海温关键区，(c)1980—1993年各区域海温异常的季节变化，(d)1994—2014年各区域海温异常的季节变化
Fig. 5 Distinct SSTA affecting the SCSSM onset time in different periods (a)horizontal distribution of SSTAs in Apr affecting the onset time of South China Sea summer monsoon during 1980-1993, (b)horizontal distribution of SSTAs in Apr affecting the onset time of South China Sea summer monsoon during 1994-2014, (c)the seasonal evolution of SSTAs in key regions during 1980-1993, (d)the seasonal evolution of SSTAs in key regions during 1994-2014
图 6 5月南亚高压年际变化的两种主模态[74] (单位：gpm，黑色粗实线表示表示14270 gpm等高线，灰色阴影表示气候平均位势高度大于14270 gpm的区域，黑色虚线表示气候平均高压脊线，红色和蓝色虚线分别表示强度模态偏强和偏弱时的高压脊线位置) (a)南亚高压强度模态高指数年150 hPa位势高度合成场，(b)南亚高压强度模态低指数年150 hPa位势高度合成场，(c)南亚高压经向位置模态高指数年150 hPa位势高度合成场，(d)南亚高压经向位置模态低指数年150 hPa位势高度合成场
Fig. 6 Two interannual dominant modes of the South Asian High(SAH) in May(from Reference [74])(the bold solid contour denotes 14270 gpm geopotential height, the shaded denotes climatological geopotential height greater than 14270 gpm, the black dashed line denotes climatological SAH ridgeline, the red dashed line denotes the ridgeline of SAH with the strong SAH meridional position mode, the blue dashed line denotes the ridgeline of SAH with the strong SAH meridional position mode) (a)composites of 150 hPa geopotential height and ridgeline of the SAH in the years with the strong SAH intensity mode, (b)composites of 150 hPa geopotential height and ridgeline of the SAH in the years with the weak SAH intensity mode, (c)composites of 150 hPa geopotential height and ridgeline of the SAH in the years with the strong SAH meridional position mode, (d)composites of 150 hPa geopotential height and ridgeline of the SAH in the years with the weak SAH meridional position mode
图 7 1983年和2016年盛夏(7月、8月平均)西太平洋副高异常的对比[75] (a)1983年盛夏高空200 hPa波活动通量(矢量, 单位：m2·s-2，)和相对涡度(等值线，单位：10-5·s-1)，(b)1983年盛夏高低空速度势(等值线，单位：106 m2·s-2)和辐散风(矢量，单位：m·s-1)差值(200 hPa减去850 hPa), (c)1983年盛夏海温异常(阴影)及850 hPa流函数(等值线，单位：106 m2·s-2)，(d)2016年盛夏高空200 hPa波活动通量(矢量，单位：m2·s-2)和相对涡度(等值线，单位：10-5·s-1)，(e)2016年盛夏高低空速度势(等值线，单位：106 m2·s-2)和辐散风(矢量，单位：m·s-1)差值(200 hPa减去850 hPa)；(f)2016年盛夏海温异常(阴影)及850 hPa流函数(等值线，单位：106 m2·s-2)
Fig. 7 Comparison of the western Pacific subtropical high between deep summer(Jul-Aug) of 1983 and 2016(from Reference [75]) (a)wave activity flux(the vector, unit:m2·s-2) and relative vorticity (the contour, unit:10-5 s-1) at 200 hPa in deep summer of 1983, (b)vertical difference between 200 hPa and 850 hPa velocity potential (the contour, unit:106 m2·s-2) and divergent winds(the vector, unit:m·s-1) in deep summer of 1983, (c)SSTA(the shaded, unit:K) and 850 hPa stream function(the contour, unit:106 m2·s-2) in deep summer of 1983, (d)wave activity flux(the vector, unit:m2·s-2) and relative vorticity (the contour, unit:10-5·s-1) at 200 hPa in deep summer of 2016, (e)vertical difference between 200 hPa and 850 hPa velocity potential (the contour, unit:106 m2·s-2) and divergent winds(the vector, unit:m·s-1) in deep summer of 2016, (f)SSTA(the shaded, unit:K) and 850 hPa stream function(the contour, unit:106 m2·s-2) in deep summer of 2016
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