[1]
|
Vitart F, Ardilouze C, Bonet A, et al.The subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project database.Mon Wea Rev, 2017, 99(1):163-173. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=501b6662bdc004d098df7fd96b4d7dd7
|
[2]
|
ECWMF.A Roadmap to 2025: The Strength of a Common Goal.Reading: ECWMF, 2016: 1-10.
|
[3]
|
Black J, Johnson N C, Baxter S, et al.The prediction and forecast skill of northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns for lead times of 3-4 weeks.Mon Wea Rev, 2017, 145(7):2855-2877. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0394.1
|
[4]
|
Zhu Y, Zhou X, Pea M, et al.Impact of sea surface temperature forcing on weeks 3 and 4 forecast skill in the NCEP global ensemble forecasting system.Wea Forecasting, 2017, 32(6):2159-2174. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0093.1
|
[5]
|
Vitart F.Monthly forecasting at ECMWF.Mon Wea Rev, 2004, 132(12):2761-2779. doi: 10.1175/MWR2826.1
|
[6]
|
Waliser D, Weickmann K, Dole R, et al.The Experimental MJO Prediction Project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 2006, 87(4):425-431. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-87-4-425
|
[7]
|
贾小龙, 陈丽娟, 高辉, 等.我国短期气候预测技术进展.应用气象学报, 2013, 24(6):641-655. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2013.06.001
|
[8]
|
任宏利, 吴捷, 赵崇博, 等.MJO预报研究进展.应用气象学报, 2015, 26(6):658-668. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20150602&flag=1
|
[9]
|
Baldwin M P, Dunkerton T J.Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere.J Geophys Res, 1999, 104(D24):30937-30946. doi: 10.1029/1999JD900445
|
[10]
|
Baldwin M P, Stephenson D B, Thompson D W, et al.Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecast.Science, 2003, 301(5633):636-640. doi: 10.1126/science.1087143
|
[11]
|
Polvani L M, Kushner P J.Tropospheric response to stratospheric perturbations in a relatively simple general circulation model.Geophy Res Lett, 2002, 29(7):1-4. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=83821cf29649e4cb66be1a0f893a3344
|
[12]
|
Koster R D, Suarez M J.Impact of land surface initialization on seasonal precipitation and temperature prediction.J Hydrometeorol, 2003, 4(2):408-423. doi: 10.1175/1525-7541(2003)4<408:IOLSIO>2.0.CO;2
|
[13]
|
Cohen J, Entekhabi D.Eurasian snow cover variability and Northern Hemisphere climate variability.Geophy Res Lett, 1999, 26(3):345-348. doi: 10.1029/1998GL900321
|
[14]
|
Holland M M, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E, Kay J, et al.Initial-value predictability of Antarctic ice in the Community Climate System Model 3.Geophys Res Lett, 2013, 40(10):2121-2124. doi: 10.1002/grl.50410
|
[15]
|
Thompson P D.Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns.Tellus, 1957, 9(3):275-295. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v9i3.9111
|
[16]
|
Lorenz E N.Deterministic nonperiodic flow.J Atmos Sci, 1963, 20(2):130-141. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:DNF>2.0.CO;2
|
[17]
|
丑纪范.长期数值天气预报.北京:气象出版社, 1986.
|
[18]
|
李崇银.气候变化及可预报性(CLIVAR)——气候研究的国际新计划.气候与环境研究, 1996, 1(1):87-95. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.1996.01.09
|
[19]
|
穆穆, 李建平, 丑纪范, 等.气候系统可预报性理论研究.气候与环境研究, 2002, 7(2):227-235. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qhyhjyj200202010
|
[20]
|
Li J, Ding R.Temporal-spatial distribution of atmospheric predictability limit by local dynamical analogs.Mon Wea Rev, 2011, 139(10):3265-3283. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-10-05020.1
|
[21]
|
Molteni F, Buzzia R, Palmer T N, et al.The ECMWF ensemble prediction system:Methodology and validation.Q J Roy Meteor Soc, 1996, 122(52):73-119. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=cd07151aa70b5309e0b11d32271ae059&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
|
[22]
|
丁瑞强, 李建平.天气可预报性的时空分布.气象学报, 2009, 67(3):343-354. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=qxxb200903001
|
[23]
|
Kalnay E.大气模式、资料同化和可预报性.蒲朝霞, 杨福全, 邓北胜, 等译.北京: 气象出版社, 2005.
|
[24]
|
丑纪范.大气科学中的非线性与复杂性.北京:气象出版社, 2002.
|
[25]
|
丑纪范, 郑志海, 孙树鹏.10-30 d延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考——直面混沌.气象科学, 2010, 30(5):569-573. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2010.05.001
|
[26]
|
Reichler T J, Roads J O.The role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability.Nonlinear Proc Geoph, 2003, 10(3):211-232. doi: 10.5194/npg-10-211-2003
|
[27]
|
郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平.基于季节气候可预报分量的相似误差订正方法和数值实验.物理学报, 2009, 58(10):7359-7367. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/wlxb200910114
|
[28]
|
郑志海, 封国林, 丑纪范, 等.数值预报中自由度的压缩及误差相似性规律.应用气象学报, 2010, 21(2):139-148. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2010.02.002
|
[29]
|
刘景鹏, 陈丽娟, 李维京, 等.月尺度气温可预报性对资料长度的依赖及可信度.应用气象学报, 2015, 26(2):151-159. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20150203&flag=1
|
[30]
|
Liu J, Li W, Chen L, et al.Estimation of the monthly precipitation predictability limit in China using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent.J Meteor Res, 2016, 30(1):93-102. doi: 10.1007/s13351-015-5049-z
|
[31]
|
Sarachik E S, Cane M A.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2010.
|
[32]
|
张人禾, 周广庆, 巢纪平.ENSO动力学与预测.大气科学, 2003, 27(4):674-688. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2003.04.16
|
[33]
|
王会军, 孙建奇, 郎咸梅, 等.几年来我国气候年际变异和短期气候预测研究的一些新成果.大气科学, 2008, 32(4):806-814. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.04.09
|
[34]
|
陈丽娟, 李想, 李维京, 等.2015/2016年超强El Niño事件背景下我国月预测技巧差异分析.大气科学学报, 2016, 39(6):756-765. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-NJQX201606005.htm
|
[35]
|
Zhao P, Zhu Y N, Zhang R H.An Asian-Pacific teleconnection in summer tropospheric temperature and associated Asian climate variability.Climate Dyn, 2007, 29(2-3):293-303. doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0236-y
|
[36]
|
晏红明, 肖子牛.印度洋海温异常对亚洲季风区天气气候影响的数值模拟研究.热带气象学报, 2000, 16(1):18-27. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2000.01.003
|
[37]
|
Zuo J, Li W, Sun C, et al.Impact of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole on the East Asian summer monsoon.Adv Atmos Sci, 2013, 30(4):1173-1186. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2125-5
|
[38]
|
杨修群, 谢倩, 黄士松.大西洋海温异常对东亚夏季大气环流影响的数值试验.气象学报, 1992, 50(3):349-354. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB199203011.htm
|
[39]
|
Wang X, Zheng Z, Feng G.Effects of air-sea interaction on extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the northern extratropical region.Theor Appl Climatol, 2018, 132(1-2):31-40. doi: 10.1007/s00704-017-2071-3
|
[40]
|
Saha S, Moorthi S, Wu X, et al.The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2.J Climate, 2014, 27(6):2185-2208. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
|
[41]
|
Vitart F, Molteni F.Dynamical extended-range prediction of early monsoon rainfall over India.Mon Wea Rev, 2009, 137(4):1480-1492. doi: 10.1175/2008MWR2761.1
|
[42]
|
Reichler T J, Roads J O.Long-range predictability in the tropics.Part Ⅰ:Monthly averages.J Climate, 2005, 18(5):619-633. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-3294.1
|
[43]
|
Reichler T J, Roads J O.Long-range predictability in the tropics.Part Ⅱ:30-60-day variability.J Climate, 2005, 18(5):634-650. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-3295.1
|
[44]
|
DeMott C A, Stan C, Randall D A, et al.Intraseasonal variability in coupled GCMs:The roles of ocean feedbacks and model physics.J Climate, 2014, 7(13):4970-4995. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=3fce82d5b06d4bfca1c2241b07f50c86&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
|
[45]
|
Fu X, Wang B, Waliser D E, et al.Impact of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the predictability of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations.J Atmos Sci, 2007, 64(1):157-174. doi: 10.1175/JAS3830.1
|
[46]
|
Fu X, Wang B, Lee J Y, et al.Sensitivity of dynamical intraseasonal prediction skills to different initial conditions.Mon Wea Rev, 2011, 139(8):2572-2592. doi: 10.1175/2011MWR3584.1
|
[47]
|
汪栩加, 郑志海, 封国林, 等.延伸期预报中大气初值与海温边值的相对作用.气象学报, 2017, 75(1):111-122. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxxb201701008
|
[48]
|
Charney J G, Shukla J.Predictability of Monsoons//Monsoon Dynamics.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981: 99-109.
|
[49]
|
Zhu H, Wheeler M C, Sobel A H, et al.Seamless precipitation prediction skill in the tropics and extratropics from a global model.Mon Wea Rev, 2014, 142(4):1556-1569. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00222.1
|
[50]
|
Zhang C.Madden-Julian oscillation:Bridging weather and climate.Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 2013, 94(12):1849-1870. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00026.1
|
[51]
|
Robertson A W, Kumar A, Pena M, et al.Improving and promoting subseasonal to seasonal prediction.Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 2015, 96(3):ES49-ES53. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00139.1
|
[52]
|
Wheeler M, Hendon H H.An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index:Development of the index for monitoring and prediction in Australia.Mon Wea Rev, 2004, 132(8):1917-1932. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:AARMMI>2.0.CO;2
|
[53]
|
Neena J M, Lee J Y, Waliser B, et al.Predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE).J Climate, 2014, 27(27):4531-4543. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=fafd37e8495aa81776f9b8ef0656d731&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
|
[54]
|
Wu J, Ren H L, Zuo J Q, et al.MJO prediction skill, predictability, and teleconnection impacts in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model.Dynam Atmos Oceans, 2016, 75(9):78-90. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=1223cbf6e368e5f28a01b6bb1e049af1
|
[55]
|
Miyakawa T, Satoh M, Miura H, et al.Madden-Julian oscillation prediction skill of a new generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer.Nature Communications, 2014, 5:3769. doi: 10.1038/ncomms4769
|
[56]
|
MacLachlan C, Arribas A, Peterson K A, et al.Global Seasonal forecast system version 5(GloSea5):A high-resolution seasonal forecast system.Q J Roy Meteor Soc, 2015, 141(689):1072-1084. doi: 10.1002/qj.2396
|
[57]
|
Liu X, Wu T, Yang S, et al.MJO prediction using the sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast model of Beijing Climate Center.Climate Dyn, 2017, 48(9-10):3283-3307. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3264-7
|
[58]
|
Green B W, Sun S, Bleck R, et al.Evaluation of MJO predictive skill in multiphysics and multimodel global ensembles.Mon Wea Rev, 2017, 145(7):2555-2574. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0419.1
|
[59]
|
Lee J Y, Wang B, Wheeler M C, et al.Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region.Climate Dyn, 2013, 40(1-2):493-509. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1544-4
|
[60]
|
Lee S S, Wang B, Waliser D, et al.Predictability and prediction skill of the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation in the Intra-seasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment.Climate Dyn, 2015, 45(7-8):2123-2135. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2461-5
|
[61]
|
Jie W, Vitart F, Wu T, et al.Simulations of the Asian summer monsoon in the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) database.Q J Roy Meteor Soc, 2017, 143(706):2282-2295. doi: 10.1002/qj.2017.143.issue-706
|
[62]
|
Liebmann B, Hendon H H, Glick J D.The relationship between the tropical cyclones of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.J Meteor Soc Japan, 1994, 72(3):401-412. doi: 10.2151/jmsj1965.72.3_401
|
[63]
|
Zhou W, Chan J C.Intraseasonal oscillations and the South China Sea summer monsoon onset.Int J Climatol, 2005, 25(12):1585-1609. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088
|
[64]
|
李崇银, 潘静, 宋洁.MJO研究新进展.大气科学, 2013, 37(2):229-252. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2013.02.011
|
[65]
|
Ren P, Ren H, Fu X, et al.Impact of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on rainfall extremes in southeastern China and its predictability in CFSv2.J Geophys Res, 2018, 123(9):4423-4442. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=65103732c1e0eaa6f1695c97a4093419&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
|
[66]
|
吴捷, 任宏利, 赵崇博, 等.国家气候中心MJO监测预测业务产品研发与应用.应用气象学报, 2016, 27(6):641-653. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20160601&flag=1
|
[67]
|
袁媛, 高辉, 柳艳菊.2016年夏季我国东部降水异常特征及其成因简析.气象, 2017, 43(1):115-121. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-QXXX201701013.htm
|
[68]
|
Zhou W, Chan J C L.ENSO and South China Sea summer monsoon onset.Int J Climatol, 2007, 27(2):157-167. doi: 10.1002/(ISSN)1097-0088
|
[69]
|
高辉, 袁媛, 洪洁莉, 等.2016年汛期气候预测效果评述及主要先兆信号与应用.气象, 2017, 43(4):486-494. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qx201704011
|
[70]
|
陈丽娟, 顾薇, 龚振淞, 等.影响2018年汛期气候的先兆信号和预测效果评估.气象, 2019, 45(4):553-564. http://www.cqvip.com/QK/95348X/201904/7001969243.html
|
[71]
|
Ashok K, Behera S K, Rao S A, et al.El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection.J Geophys Res, 2007, 112:C11007. doi: 10.1029/2006JC003798
|
[72]
|
袁媛, 李崇银, 凌健.不同分布型El Niño期间MJO活动的差异.中国科学(地球科学), 2015, 45(3):318-334. http://www.cnki.com.cn/article/cjfdtotal-jdxk201503006.htm
|
[73]
|
陈丽娟, 顾薇, 丁婷, 等.2015年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析.气象, 2016, 42(4):496-506. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qx201604014
|
[74]
|
赵俊虎, 王永光. 2018年秋季我国气候异常及成因分析.气象, 2019, 45(4):565-576. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qx201904011
|
[75]
|
Yoo J H, Robertson A W, Kang I S.Analysis of intraseasonal and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon using a hidden Markov model.J Climate, 2010, 23(20):5498-5515. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3473.1
|
[76]
|
Kessler W S, McPhaden M J, Weickmann K M.Forcing of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in the equatorial Pacific.J Geophys Res, 1995, 100(C6):10613-10631. doi: 10.1029/95JC00382
|
[77]
|
Vitart F, Balmaseda M A, Ferranti L, et al.Westerly wind events and the 1997/98 El-Niño event in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system.J Climate, 2003, 16(19):3153-3170. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3153:WWEATE>2.0.CO;2
|
[78]
|
Riddle E E, Stoner M, Johnson N, et al.The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region.Climate Dyn, 2013, 40(7-8):1749-1766. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1493-y
|
[79]
|
Johnson N C, Collins D C, Feldstein S B, et al.Skillful wintertime North American temperature forecasts out to 4 weeks based on the state of ENSO and MJO.Wea Forecasting, 2014, 29(1):23-38. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00102.1
|
[80]
|
Thompson D W J, Baldwin M P, Wallace J M.Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere winter-time weather:Implications for prediction.J Climate, 2002, 15(12):1421-1428. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1421:SCTNHW>2.0.CO;2
|
[81]
|
Lehtonen I, Karpechko A Y.Observed and modeled tropospheric cold anomalies associated with sudden stratospheric warmings.J Geophys Res, 2016, 121(4):1591-1610. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=d99fbac708a09c1541f12154087772d6
|
[82]
|
Kolstad E W, Breiteig T, Scaife A A.The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere.Q J Roy Meteor Soc, 2010, 136(649):886-893. doi: 10.1002/qj.v136:649
|
[83]
|
Karpechko A Y, Hitchcock P, Peters D H W, et al.Predictability of downward propagation of major sudden stratospheric warmings.Q J Roy Meteor Soc, 2017, 143(704):1459-1470. doi: 10.1002/qj.2017.143.issue-704
|
[84]
|
Taguchi M.Predictability of major stratospheric sudden warmings:Analysis results from JMA operational 1-month ensemble predictions from 2001/02 to 2012/13.J Atmos Sci, 2015, 73(2):789-806. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=1ceeadd6f7cf8fbbb6fe0e141fd523ec&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
|
[85]
|
Marshall A G, Scaife A A.Improved predictability of stratospheric sudden warming in an atmospheric general circulation model with enhanced stratospheric resolution.J Geophys Res, 2010, 115:D16114. doi: 10.1029/2009JD012643
|
[86]
|
Tripathi O P, Charlton-Perez A, Sigmond M, et al.Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions.Environ Res Lett, 2015, 10:104007. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104007
|
[87]
|
Tripathi O P, Baldwin M, Charlton-Perez A, et al.Examining the predictability of the stratospheric sudden warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems.Mon Wea Rev, 2016, 144(5):1935-1960. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1
|
[88]
|
Karpechko A Y.Predictability of sudden stratospheric warmings in the ECMWF extended-range forecast system.Mon Wea Rev, 2018, 146(4):1063-1075. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0317.1
|
[89]
|
章大全, 宋文玲.2017/2018年冬季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响.气象, 2018, 44(7):969-976. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=qx201807013
|
[90]
|
Vinnikov K Y, Yeserkepova I B.Soil moisture:Empirical data and model results.J Climate, 1991, 4(1):66-79. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0066:SMEDAM>2.0.CO;2
|
[91]
|
Entin J K, Robock A, Vinnikov K Y, et al.Temporal and spatial scales of observed soil moisture variations in the extratropics.J Geophys Res, 2000, 105(D9):11865-11877. doi: 10.1029/2000JD900051
|
[92]
|
Koster R D, Suarez M J, Liu P, et al.Realistic initialization of land surface states:Impacts of subseasonal forecast skill.J Hydrometeor, 2004, 5(6):1049-1063. doi: 10.1175/JHM-387.1
|
[93]
|
Koster R D, Mahanama S P P, Yamada T J, et al.The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment:Soil moisture contribution to subseasonal forecast skill.J Hydrometeor, 2011, 12(5):805-822. doi: 10.1175/2011JHM1365.1
|
[94]
|
Seneviratne S I, Corti T, Davin E L, et al.Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate:A review.Earth-Sci Rev, 2010, 99(3-4):125-161. doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004
|
[95]
|
Seo E, Lee M, Jeong J, et al.Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts:Mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events.Climate Dyn, 2018, 52(3-4):1695-1709. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=488f315128172c196d172f4f87663050&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
|
[96]
|
Fischer E M, Seneviratne S I, Vidale P L, et al.Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions during 2003 European summer heat wave.J Climate, 2007, 20(20):5081-5099. doi: 10.1175/JCLI4288.1
|
[97]
|
Yang F, Kumar A, Wang H M, et al.Snow-albedo feedback and seasonal climate variability over North America.J Climate, 2001, 14(22):4245-4248. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4245:SAFASC>2.0.CO;2
|
[98]
|
Jeong J H, Linderholm H W, Woo S H, et al.Impacts of snow initialization on subseasonal forecasts of surface air temperature for the cold season.J Climate, 2013, 26(6):1956-1972. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00159.1
|
[99]
|
Orsolini Y J, Senan R, Balsamo G, et al.Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts.Climate Dyn, 2013, 41(7-8):1969-1982. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1782-0
|
[100]
|
Orsolini Y J, Senan R, Vitart F, et al.Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010.Climate Dyn, 2016, 47(3-4):1325-1334. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2903-8
|
[101]
|
段安民, 肖志祥, 吴国雄, 等.青藏高原冬春积雪影响亚洲夏季风的研究进展.气候与环境科学, 2014, 7(3):94-101. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/hnqx201403015
|
[102]
|
韩世茹, 郑志海, 周须文, 等.青藏高原积雪深度对延伸期预报技巧的影响.大气科学, 2019, 43(1):119-130. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/daqikx201901012
|
[103]
|
Frederiksen J S, Lin H.Tropical-extratropical interactions of intraseasonal oscillations.J Atmos Sci, 2013, 70(10):3180-3197. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0302.1
|
[104]
|
Wang J, Wen Z, Wu R, et al.The mechanism of growth of the low-frequency East Asia-Pacific teleconnection and the triggering role of tropical intraseasonal oscillation.Climate Dyn, 2016, 46(11-12):3965-3977. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2815-7
|
[105]
|
Stan C, Straus D M, Frederiksen J S, et al.Review of tropical-extratropical teleconnections on intraseasonal time scales.Rev Geophys, 2017, 55(4):902-937. doi: 10.1002/rog.v55.4
|
[106]
|
Miyakoda K, Gordon T, Carerly R, et al.Simulation of a blocking event in January 1977.Mon Wea Rev, 1983, 111(4):846-869. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0846:SOABEI>2.0.CO;2
|
[107]
|
Tracton M S, Mo K, Chen W, et al.Dynamical extended range forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center.Mon Wea Rev, 1989, 117(7):1604-1635. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1604:DERFAT>2.0.CO;2
|
[108]
|
Deque M, Royer J F.The skill of extended-range extratropical winter dynamical forecasts.J Climate, 1992, 5(11):1346-1356. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<1346:TSOERE>2.0.CO;2
|
[109]
|
Palmer T N.Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model.Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1993, 74(1):49-65. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<0049:ERAPAT>2.0.CO;2
|
[110]
|
Boer G J.Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting at the Canadian Climate Centre.Reading: ECMWF, 1988: 135-152.
|
[111]
|
Yamada S, Maeda S, Nakamura K.Time Lagged Ensemble Forecast Experiments in the Extended Range the JMA Global Prediction Model//WMO Training Workshop.Diagnosis and Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal Atmospheric Variations.Geneva: WMO, 1991: 231-234.
|
[112]
|
Owen J A, Palmer T N.The Impact of El Niño on an ensemble of extended-range forecasts.Mon Wea Rev, 1987, 115(9):2103-2117. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<2103:TIOENO>2.0.CO;2
|
[113]
|
Mo K C, Kalnay E.Impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on the skill of monthly forecasts.Mon Wea Rev, 1991, 119(12):2771-2793. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<2771:IOSSTA>2.0.CO;2
|
[114]
|
骆美霞, 张道民.实时海温对动力延伸(月)预报影响的数值试验研究.应用气象学报, 2002, 13(6):727-733. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2002.06.011
|
[115]
|
王秋良, 张立凤, 关吉平.不同海温强迫的月动力延伸集合预报试验.气候与环境研究, 2013, 18(4):517-523. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qhyhjyj201304010
|
[116]
|
Vitart F.Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores.Q J Roy Meteor Soc, 2014, 140(683):1889-1899. doi: 10.1002/qj.2014.140.issue-683
|
[117]
|
吴统文, 宋连春, 刘向文, 等.国家气候中心短期气候预测模式系统业务化进展.应用气象学报, 2013, 24(5):533-543. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2013.05.003
|
[118]
|
Lorenz E N.Climate Predictability//The Physical Basis of Climate and Climate Modeling.GARP Publication Series.Geneva: WMO, 1975: 133-136.
|
[119]
|
Palmer T N, Anderson D L T.The prospects for seasonal forecasting-A review paper.Q J Roy Meteor Soc, 1994, 120(518):755-793. http://cn.bing.com/academic/profile?id=8a4cf83f2d9e3bedfd5f9a2e15f9083b&encoded=0&v=paper_preview&mkt=zh-cn
|
[120]
|
Mason S, Goddard L, Graham N E, et al.The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event.Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1999, 80(9):1853-1873. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<1853:TISCPS>2.0.CO;2
|
[121]
|
Li S, Robertson A W.Evaluation of submonthly precipitation forecast skill from global ensemble prediction systems.Mon Wea Rev, 2015, 143(7):2871-2889. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00277.1
|
[122]
|
Liu R F, Wang W.Multi-week prediction of South-East Asia rainfall variability during boreal summer in CFSv2.Climate Dyn, 2015, 45(1-2):493-509. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2401-4
|
[123]
|
DelSole T, Trenary L.Predictability of week 3-4 average temperature and precipitation over the Contiguous United States.J Climate, 2017, 30(10):3499-3512. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0567.1
|
[124]
|
DelSole T, Tippett M K.Laplacian eigenfunctions for climate analysis.J Climate, 2015, 28(18):7420-7436. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0049.1
|
[125]
|
Liang P, Lin H.Sub-seasonal prediction over East Asia during boreal summer using the ECCC monthly forecasting system.Climate Dyn, 2018, 50(3-4):1007-1022. doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3658-1
|
[126]
|
Pegion K, Sardeshmukh P D.Prospects for improving subseasonal predictions.Mon Wea Rev, 2011, 139(11):3648-3666. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00004.1
|
[127]
|
Wang W, Hung M P, Weaver S J, et al.MJO prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2.Climate Dyn, 2014, 42(9-10):2509-2520. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1806-9
|
[128]
|
何慧根, 李巧萍, 吴统文, 等.月动力延伸预测模式业务系统DERF2.0对中国气温和降水的预测性能评估.大气科学, 2014, 38(5):950-964. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/daqikx201405011
|
[129]
|
白慧, 黄晨然, 李忠燕.DERF2.0模式对贵州延伸期、月预测质量对比分析.中低纬山地气象, 2018, 42(5):1-5. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-6598.2018.05.001
|
[130]
|
陈丽娟, 李维京, 张培群, 等.降尺度技术在月降水预报中的应用.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(6):648-655. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2003.06.002
|
[131]
|
李维京, 陈丽娟.动力延伸预报产品释用方法的研究.气象学报, 1999, 57(3):338-344. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=QK199900533794
|
[132]
|
任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 等.提高月预报业务水平的动力相似集合方法.气象学报, 2014, 72(4):723-730. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxxb201404007
|
[133]
|
李维京, 郑志海, 孙丞虎.近年来我国短期气候预测中动力相似预测方法研究与应用进展.大气科学, 2013, 37(2):341-350. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/daqikx201302012
|
[134]
|
丑纪范.天气和气候的可预报性.气象科技进展, 2011, 1(2):11-14. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxkjjz201102003
|
[135]
|
王阔, 封国林, 孙树鹏, 等.基于2008年1月南方低温雨雪冰冻事件10~30天延伸期稳定分量的研究.物理学报, 2012, 61(10):1-10. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=wlxb201210075
|
[136]
|
王启光, 丑纪范, 封国林.数值模式延伸期可预报分量提取及预报技术研究.中国科学(地球科学), 2014, 44(2):343-354. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10730-1012371481.htm
|
[137]
|
Zheng Z, Hu Z, L Heureux M.Predictable components of ENSO evolution in real-time multi-model predictions.Scientific Reports, 2016, 6:35909. doi: 10.1038/srep35909
|
[138]
|
郑志海, 黄建平, 封国林, 等.延伸期可预报分量的预报方案和策略.中国科学(地球科学), 2013, 43(4):594-605. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=zgkx-cd201304009
|
[139]
|
章大全, 陈丽娟.基于DERF2.0的月平均温度概率订正预报.大气科学, 2016, 40(5):1022-1032. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/daqikx201605011
|
[140]
|
金荣花, 马杰, 毕宝贵.10~30 d延伸期预报研究进展的业务现状.沙漠与绿洲气象, 2010, 4(2):1-5. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-0799.2010.02.001
|
[141]
|
何金海, 梁萍, 孙国武.延伸期预报的思考及其应用研究进展.气象科技进展, 2013, 3(1):11-17. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxkjjz201301010
|
[142]
|
梁萍, 何金海, 穆海振.MJO在延伸期预报中的应用进展.气象科技进展, 2013, 3(1):31-38. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxkjjz201301013
|
[143]
|
孙国武, 李震坤, 信飞, 等.延伸期天气过程预报的一种新方法——低频天气图.大气科学, 2013, 37(4):945-954. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Conference/8145017
|
[144]
|
陈伯民, 梁萍, 信飞, 等.延伸期过程预报预测技术及应用.气象科技进展, 2017, 7(6):82-91. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2017.06.010
|
[145]
|
高建芸, 陈彩珠, 周信禹, 等.2010年福建前汛期典型持续性暴雨过程的低频特征分析.气象科技进展, 2013, 3(1):39-45. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxkjjz201301014
|
[146]
|
林纾, 惠志红, 郭俊琴, 等.150天韵律方法月内过程预测系统简介及应用检验.气象科技进展, 2013, 3(5):48-51. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxkjjz201305011
|
[147]
|
钱维宏.瞬变涡扰动法在极端天气事件预报中的应用.气象科技进展, 2012, 2(5):44-48. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxkjjz201205006
|
[148]
|
Hsu P-C, Li T, You L, et al.A spatial-temporal projection method for 10-30-day forecast of heavy rainfall in Southern China.Climate Dyn, 2015, 44(5-6):1227-1244. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2215-4
|
[149]
|
Zhu Z, Li T, Hsu P-C, et al.A spatial-temporal projection model for extended-range forecast in the tropics.Climate Dyn, 2015, 45(3-4):1085-1098. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2353-8
|
[150]
|
Zhu Z, Li T.Empirical prediction of the onset dates of South China Sea summer monsoon.Climate Dyn, 2017, 48(5-6):1633-1645. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3164-x
|
[151]
|
Zhu Z, Li T, Bai L, et al.Extended-range forecast for the temporal distribution of clustering tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific.Theor Appl Climatol, 2017, 130(3-4):865-877. doi: 10.1007/s00704-016-1925-4
|
[152]
|
陈丽娟, 陈伯民, 李维京, 等.T63模式月动力延伸预报高度场的改进实验.应用气象学报, 2005, 16(增刊Ⅰ):92-96. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/yyqxxb2005z1012
|
[153]
|
杨秋明.基于20~30 d振荡的长江下游地区夏季低频降水延伸期预报方法研究.气象学报, 2014, 72(3):494-507. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxxb201403006
|
[154]
|
杨秋明.长江下游夏季低频温度和高温天气的延伸期预报研究.地球科学进展, 2018, 33(4):385-395. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/dqkxjz201804006
|
[155]
|
梁萍, 丁一汇.基于季节内振荡的延伸预报试验.大气科学, 2012, 36(1):102-116. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.01.09
|
[156]
|
杜良敏, 柯宗建.一种适用于延伸期过程事件预报的检验方法.应用气象学报, 2013, 24(6):686-694. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2013.06.005
|