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10~30 d延伸期可预报性与预报方法研究进展

章大全 郑志海 陈丽娟 张培群

章大全, 郑志海, 陈丽娟, 等. 10~30 d延伸期可预报性与预报方法研究进展. 应用气象学报, 2019, 30(4): 416-430. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190403..
引用本文: 章大全, 郑志海, 陈丽娟, 等. 10~30 d延伸期可预报性与预报方法研究进展. 应用气象学报, 2019, 30(4): 416-430. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190403.
Zhang Daquan, Zheng Zhihai, Chen Lijuan, et al. Advances on the predictability and prediction methods of 10-30 d extended range forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(4): 416-430. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190403.
Citation: Zhang Daquan, Zheng Zhihai, Chen Lijuan, et al. Advances on the predictability and prediction methods of 10-30 d extended range forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(4): 416-430. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190403.

10~30 d延伸期可预报性与预报方法研究进展

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190403
资助项目: 

国家重点基础研究发展计划 2015CB453203

国家自然科学基金项目 41605078

国家自然科学基金项目 41875101

国家自然科学基金项目 41730964

国家重点研究发展计划专项 2017YFC1502303

详细信息
    通信作者:

    郑志海, 邮箱:zhengzh@cma.gov.cn

Advances on the Predictability and Prediction Methods of 10-30 d Extended Range Forecast

  • 摘要: 10~30 d延伸期的可预报性既依赖于初始条件,也与缓变的下垫面有关,寻找延伸期时段内可预报性较高的低频特征,识别延伸期的可预报性来源及影响的物理机制是提高延伸期预报水平的关键。近年延伸期可预报性来源、热带大气季节内振荡监测预测和影响等领域的研究取得较大进展,提出和应用了动力统计相结合以及大气低频信号释用等新的延伸期预报方法。对延伸期可预报性来源及其与初值和外强迫异常的关系分析表明,海气相互作用能提高亚洲和西太平洋区域延伸期时段大气环流和要素的可预报性。热带大气季节内振荡、平流层爆发性增温以及各种次季节尺度的海气、陆气耦合作用和大气响应均为延伸期预报提供了重要的可预报性来源。由于数值模式延伸期时段的预报性能与实际业务需求还存在一定距离,基于动力统计相结合和物理统计的延伸期预报方法被广泛应用于业务预报,表现出一定的预报技巧。
  • 图  1  1991—2000年IOBO方案与IOBC方案500 hPa高度场逐候MSSS评分分布[47]

    Fig. 1  MSSS of pentad mean 500 hPa geopotential height between scheme IOBO and scheme IOBC from 1991 to 2000(from Reference [47])

    图  2  基于可预报分量的延伸期数值模式集合预报方法原理

    Fig. 2  Scheme of extended-range numerical ensemble forecast based on predictable components

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  • 收稿日期:  2019-02-18
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