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Interaction and Influence of Binary Typhoons
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摘要: 采用三维变分混合同化方法对双台风菲特（1323）和丹娜丝（1324）、天鹅（0907）和莫拉克（0908）进行数值模拟，并在此基础上，采用移除双台风中任一台风和增强或减弱任一台风的方法，对双台风的相互作用进行了敏感性试验。结果表明：台风丹娜丝的作用导致台风菲特路径偏南，移速偏慢；台风菲特的作用导致台风丹娜丝路径偏北，移速变化不大。双台风相互作用使台风菲特和丹娜丝强度发生变化。在台风菲特强盛阶段强度更强，减弱消亡阶段强度更弱。2013年10月6-9日我国华东地区出现的强降水主要受台风菲特影响，台风丹娜丝使降水强度增强、强降水中心位置偏南。双台风相互作用使台风天鹅移向偏南，移速偏快，但台风天鹅对台风莫拉克的移向、移速影响不大；台风天鹅路径盘旋曲折，每次移向的变化都与台风莫拉克有关；台风天鹅打转程度与台风莫拉克的强度呈正相关，双台风间存在涡度、水汽通量等的相互影响及输送机制。Abstract: The non-static mesoscale numerical model WRF V3.3 is used to study the influence of the interaction between binary typhoons on their moving path, intensity and precipitation. Data of NCEP FNL are used as initial field and side boundary conditions, and satellite data of ATOVS such as AMSUA, AMSUB, HIRS (3/4) are assimilated. Simulation results of binary typhoons in control runs, which are based on hybrid ensemble three-dimensional variational data assimilation (Ens-3DVar) system, are very close to the real intensity, moving path and precipitation. Beyond that, 6 sensitive experiments based on control runs are designed. The 96-hour simulations are conducted after one of the binary typhoons (Fitows/Danas/Goni/Morakot) is removed from the initial field which adopts the first step of vortex reconstruction technology in WRF ARW in the sensitive experiments (C1-RMF/C1-RMD/C2-RMG/C2-RMM). Experiment C2-WEM (C2-STM) is conducted by weakening or enhancing one of the binary typhoons in order to study effects of typhoon Morakot on typhoon Goni, but the typhoon radius is unchanged. Results of sensitive experiments and control runs are further compared and analyzed.In Case 1, the role of typhoon Danas leads typhoon Fitow to move southward and slower. The role of typhoon Fitow causes typhoon Danas to move northward but has little effects on the shifting speed. The strength of binary typhoons Fitow and Danas have been changed by the interaction between them. Specifically, the interaction of binary typhoons makes the intensity of typhoon Fitow and typhoon Danas stronger in the strong stage and weaker in the dying stage of typhoon Fitow. From 6 October to 9 October in 2013, the heavy precipitation in East China is mainly affected by typhoon Fitow. Affected by typhoon Danas, the precipitation intensity brought by typhoon Fitow is enhanced, and the heavy precipitation center moves southward.In Case 2, the interaction of binary typhoons makes typhoon Goni move southward and faster, but typhoon Goni has little influence on the movement and speed of typhoon Morakot. The winding path and direction change of typhoon Goni are all associated with typhoon Morakot. The bending extent of typhoon Goni is positively correlated with the strength of typhoon Morakot. Main causes are the interaction and transportation mechanism of vorticity, water vapor flux between binary typhoons.
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Key words:
- numerical experiment;
- binary typhoons;
- WRF model;
- bogussing
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图 1 个例1台风菲特(a)和台风丹娜丝(b)控制试验和敏感性试验的逐6 h移动路径
Fig. 1 Tracks of typhoon Fitow(a) and typhoon Danas(b) followed every 6 hours in different experiments in Case 1
图 2 个例1不同试验台风菲特最低气压(a)、近中心最大风速(c)，台风丹娜丝最低气压(b)、最大风速(d)时间演变
Fig. 2 Minimum pressure(a) and maximum wind speed(b) of typhoon Fitow, minimum pressure(c) and maximum wind speed(d) of typhoon Danas in Case 1
图 3 个例1试验C1-CTL(a)、C1-RMD (b)和C1-RMF (c) 2013年10月6日00:00—7日00:00 24 h累积降水量
Fig. 3 Accumulated precipitation in C1-CTL(a), C1-RMD(b) and C1-RMF(c) from 0000 UTC 6 Oct to 0000 UTC 7 Oct in 2013 in Case 1
图 4 个例2台风天鹅(a)和莫拉克(b)不同试验的逐6 h路径
Fig. 4 Tracks of typhoon Goni(a) and typhoon Morakot(b) followed every 6 hours in different experiments in Case 2
图 5 个例2不同强度台风莫拉克影响下的台风天鹅逐6 h移动路径
Fig. 5 Tracks of typhoon Goni affected by typhoon Morakot with different intensity followed every 6 hours in Case 2
图 6 个例2去除台风莫拉克影响后台风天鹅最低气压(a)、近中心最大风速(b)，去除台风天鹅影响后台风莫拉克最低气压(c)、最大风速(d)时间演变
Fig. 6 Minimum pressure(a) and maximum wind speed(b) of typhoon Goni after removal of typhoon Morakot, minimum pressure(c) and maximum wind speed(d) of typhoon Morakot after removal of typhoon Goni in Case 2
图 7 个例2不同强度莫拉克影响下台风天鹅最低气压(a)、近中心最大风速(b)
Fig. 7 Minimum pressure(a) and maximum wind speed(b) of typhoon Goni with different intensities of typhoon Morakot in Case 2
图 8 个例2试验C2-CTL(a)、C2-RMM(b)和C2-RMG(c)2009年8月4日00:00—5日00:00 24 h累积降水量
Fig. 8 Accumulated precipitation in C2-CTL(a), C2-RMM(b) and C2-RMG(c) from 0000 UTC 4 Aug to 0000 UTC 5 Aug in 2009 in Case 2
表 1 个例1试验方案设计
Table 1 Experiment design for Case 1
序号 试验名称 试验方案 试验目的 1 C1-CTL 基于Ens-3DVar同化系统的同化模拟 与敏感性试验对比 2 C1-RMF 方案同C1-CTL，在C1-CTL初始场移除台风菲特 揭示台风菲特对台风丹娜丝的影响 3 C1-RMD 方案同C1-CTL，在C1-CTL初始场移除台风丹娜丝 揭示台风丹娜丝对台风菲特的影响 
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表 2 个例2试验方案设计
Table 2 Experiment design for Case 2
序号 试验名称 试验方案 试验目的 1 C2-CTL 基于Ens-3DVar同化系统的同化模拟 与敏感性试验对比 2 C2-RMG 方案同C2-CTL，在C2-CTL初始场移除台风天鹅 揭示台风天鹅对台风莫拉克的影响 3 C2-RMM 方案同C2-CTL，在C2-CTL初始场移除台风莫拉克 揭示台风莫拉克对台风天鹅的影响 4 C2-WEM 方案同C2-CTL，在C2-CTL初始场移除台风莫拉克，并在原中心位置加入一个比原台风强度更弱的涡旋 揭示台风莫拉克强度对台风天鹅的影响 5 C2-STM 方案同C2-WEM，仅在台风中心位置加入的涡旋比原台风强度更强 揭示台风莫拉克强度对台风天鹅的影响
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