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Spatial-temporal Variation and Zoning of Rain-washing Damage to Early Rice Pollen in Jiangxi Province
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摘要: 雨洗花灾害是江西省早稻的主要农业气象灾害之一。基于1981-2017年江西省早稻种植区81个气象站逐日降水量资料和14个水稻观测站发育期和产量资料，利用旋转经验正交函数分解（REOF）等方法，探讨江西省早稻雨洗花灾害的时空变化和分区特征并得到典型场。结果表明：江西省早稻雨洗花灾害发生频率总体呈东北高、西南低，赣北南部高、两侧低的分布特征，高值区位于萍乡北部、宜春南部、新余、南昌、抚州北部至赣东北地区，发生频率在60%以上，低值区位于赣州和吉安西南部，发生频率低于40%。轻度雨洗花灾害持续影响江西省大部分地区，且自1992年以来呈现发生频率增加、影响范围扩大的趋势；重度灾害主要发生在赣东北，经历了两个活跃期和两个低发期。根据REOF分析结果，可将江西省早稻雨洗花灾害划分为赣北南部、赣中、赣东北、赣南和赣北北部5个区域。赣东北为重度雨洗花灾害高风险区，赣北南部为轻度雨洗花灾害高风险区，赣中、赣北北部为轻度雨洗花灾害次高风险区，赣南为雨洗花灾害低风险区。
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关键词:
- 早稻雨洗花灾害;
- 时空变化;
- 旋转经验正交函数分解;
- 分区
Abstract: Rain-washing damage to pollen is one of the main agrometeorological disasters of early rice in Jiangxi. Meanwhile, the rice cropping areas in Jiangxi have very complex terrains, and the agroclimatic conditions are variable, and therefore the coincidence period of flowering period and wet season vary in different regions. Considering those above, based on observations of 81 meteorological stations and 14 rice stations in the early rice planting areas of Jiangxi from 1981 to 2017, the spatial-temporal variation and zoning of rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi are analyzed by empirical orthogonal function(EOF) rotated empirical orthogonal function(REOF).Results show that the occurrence frequency of rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi is generally high in northeast and low in southwest, while in northern Jiangxi, it is high along the south part and low on both sides. The high value area is in northern Pingxiang, southern Yichun, Xinyu, Nanchang, northern Fuzhou and northeastern Jiangxi, with the occurrence frequency more than 60%. The low value area is in Ganzhou and southwestern Ji'an, with the occurrence frequency less than 40%. Mild disasters occur all over the Province, and its frequency and range are increasing since 1992. Severe disasters mainly occur in northeastern Jiangxi, and there are two active periods and two inactive periods. According to results of EOF and REOF analysis, the high value areas (the absolute value is not less than 0.5) of the first five rotated principal components cover almost the whole planting area of the early rice in Jiangxi, and high value areas of five components are in the south part of northern Jiangxi, central Jiangxi, northeastern Jiangxi, southern Jiangxi and the north part of northern Jiangxi in turn, which means that the rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi can be divided into five subareas as above. Among those subregions, northeastern Jiangxi is in the high-risk area of severe rain-washing damage to pollen, the south part of northern Jiangxi is in the high-risk area of mild rain washing-damage to pollen, central Jiangxi and the north part of northern Jiangxi are the sub-high risk area, and southern Jiangxi is the low risk area. -
图 1 江西省早稻种植区划分、气象站和农业气象观测站分布
Fig. 1 Distribution of rice-growing subareas with meteorological and agrometeorological stations in Jiangxi Province
图 2 1981—2017年江西省早稻轻度、重度雨洗花灾害发生站数比的年际变化
Fig. 2 Inter-annual variation of station ratio of light and severe rain-washing damages to early rice pollen in Jiangxi Province from 1981 to 2017
图 3 1981—2017年江西省早稻雨洗花灾害发生频率的空间分布
Fig. 3 The occurrence frequency of rain- washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi Province from 1981 to 2017
图 4 1981—2017年江西省早稻轻度、重度雨洗花灾害发生频率的空间分布
Fig. 4 The occurrence frequency of light, severe rain-washing damages to early rice pollen in Jiangxi Province from 1981 to 2017
图 5 江西省早稻不同时段轻度雨洗花灾害发生频率的空间分布
Fig. 5 The occurrence frequency of light rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi Province during different periods
图 6 江西省早稻不同时段重度雨洗花灾害发生频率的空间分布
Fig. 6 The occurrence frequency of severe rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi Province during different periods
图 7 江西省早稻雨洗花灾害REOF分解的前5个空间模态
Fig. 7 The first five modes of rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi Province by REOF analysis
图 8 江西省早稻雨洗花灾害分区
Fig. 8 The subarea of rain-washing damage to early rice pollen in Jiangxi Province
表 1 1981—2017年不同区域代表站轻度和重度雨洗花灾害发生频率(单位：%)
Table 1 Occurrence frequency of light and severe rain-washing damages to early rice pollen in different subarea from 1981 to 2017(unit:%)
分区 轻度 重度 赣北南部 51 11 赣中 41 14 赣东北 41 22 赣南 35 8 赣北北部 43 11 
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表 2 雨洗花灾害偏重年份各农业气象观测站早稻减产率(单位：%)
Table 2 Yield reduction of early rice at each agrometeorological station in typical years of rain-washing damage to pollen(unit:%)
分区 观测站 1993年 1998年 赣北南部 南昌 15.1 13.8 樟树 8.9 12.2 余干 14.6 21.0 宜丰 18.0 8.9 泰和 8.2 8.9 赣中 莲花 南丰 赣东北 婺源 30.3 20.3 广丰 19.3 35.2 龙南 赣南 南康 宁都 5.9 6.3 赣北北部 湖口 7.2 7.2 瑞昌 4.0
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