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Advances of Surface Wind Speed Changes over China Under Global Warming
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摘要: 气候变暖背景下，中国地面风速在过去几十年整体呈减弱趋势，对风能资源开发产生了显著影响。近50年来，中国地面风速平均减小速率为0.10~0.22 m·s-1/（10 a），但存在明显的季节、区域和风速段差异。作为地面风的主要驱动力，对流层低层气压梯度力整体呈减弱趋势，这主要是全球变暖背景下欧亚大陆与西太平洋之间以及欧亚大陆高/低纬度地区之间的热力差异减弱所致。东亚季风的年代际变化特征和地面风速变化密切相关，其变率受到不同时间和空间尺度气候因子的影响，其中西伯利亚高压减弱是东亚冬季风减弱的主要因素，而东亚夏季风的年代际减弱主要是由于太平洋年代际振荡与北大西洋多年代尺度振荡分别向暖/冷相位的转换。研究表明：未来随着温室气体排放量增加，中国地面风速减弱趋势将更显著，这将促进低风速风电技术的发展和中低纬度地区风能开发。Abstract: Previous studies indicate that surface wind speed (SWS) over China is declining continuously during past decades under global warming, and this has significant impact on wind energy resources. Based on a series of researches, spatial and temporal characteristics of SWS and its main causes are discussed. Overall, the SWS over China significantly weakens during the past fifty years. The average decreasing rate is 0.1-0.22 m·s-1 per 10 years, but there are obvious differences in season, region and wind speed. The largest decreasing rate occurs in spring and winter while the smallest occurs in summer. Wind speed of north and east coast areas dropped more sharply than southwest. Furthermore, top percentiles of wind speed dropped more sharply than the bottom percentiles. The change of large-scale pressure gradient force (PGF) is a direct cause of the decrease of SWS, and climate warming exacerbates the weakening of PGF. This is mainly due to increases of surface temperature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia continent, which is more significant than that in low latitudes and the western Pacific. In particular, the weakening Siberian high (SH) caused by warming reduces the PGF between land and the adjacent ocean, which is the main factor leading to the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). For the deficit of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) from cold/warm to the opposite is the main cause, and surface cooling of East China Plain caused by the aerosol radiation effect may also play an important role. Besides, some researches indicate that aerosols can reduce the EAWM through thermodynamic process. Thus, the variability of East Asia Monsoon is the result of synergistic effects of climate factors at different spatial and time scales. Controlled experiments show that the SWS of China will decline more sharply as the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission increases. The weakened SWS influences wind energy development significantly, low speed wind technology boomed, and more wind farms will be developed in low latitudes as regions with abundance wind resources in North China experienced severe SWS deficit. To assess risks precisely, confidence probability of long-term electricity production should be considered during the decision making process of the investment of wind farms.
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表 1 近几十年中国年平均地面风速变化研究结果统计
Table 1 Surface wind speed variability over China during the past decades in recent researches
文献 气象站分布 时段 风速变化/(m·s-1/(10 a)) 文献[2] 全国区域(729站) 1954—2000年 -0.11 文献[4] 全国区域(323站) 1951—2002年 -0.10 文献[5] 东北地区(87站) 1961—2010年 -0.25 文献[6] 长江流域(128站) 1960—2015年 -0.065 文献[7] 北方风蚀区(155站) 1971—2015年 -0.17 文献[8] 新疆地区(10站) 1984—2013年 -0.29(最大) 文献[13] 全国区域(604站) 1960—1999年 -0.12 文献[17] 全国区域(305站) 1969—2000年 -0.22 文献[20] 全国区域(726站) 1969—2005年 -0.18 文献[21] 全国区域(472站) 1960—2009年 -0.1 文献[22] 全国区域(大于700站) 1961—2014年 -0.13 文献[23] 全国区域(535站) 1956—2004年 -0.12 文献[24] 全国区域(540站) 1971—2007年 -0.17 文献[25] 全国区域(524站) 1958—2015年 -0.109 文献[26] 京津冀地区(154站) 1978—2014年 -0.1(冬季) 
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表 2 多模式集合预估2006—2100年中国季节平均和年平均风速的变化趋势(单位:m·s-1/(100 a))[70]
Table 2 Annual and seasonal mean wind speed change trends projected by global climate model ensemble from 2006 to 2100 (unit:m·s-1/(100 a))(from Reference [70])
时段 集合成员 RCP 2.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 春季 23个模式集合
优选6个模式集合0.04
0.010.01
0.04-0.04
-0.02夏季 23个模式集合
优选6个模式集合0.01
0.010.06
0.110.01
0.07秋季 23个模式集合
优选6个模式集合0.02
-0.04-0.02
-0.02-0.17
-0.16冬季 23个模式集合
优选6个模式集合0.02
-0.01-0.06
-0.01-0.11
-0.03全年 23个模式集合
优选6个模式集合0.01
0.00-0.02
0.00-0.06
-0.05
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