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Occurrence Characteristics of Early Rice Heat Disaster in Jiangxi Province
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摘要: 以江西早稻为例，利用1981—2016年气象资料、早稻高温热害灾情史料和生育期资料，构建历史早稻高温热害样本集合，在Kolmogorov-Smirnov（K-S）分布拟合检验的基础上，采用信息扩散方法计算得到早稻高温热害总样本和不同持续日数（3~5 d，6~8 d和8 d以上）不同等级（轻度、中度、重度）热害在早稻抽穗期前后的发生概率。结果表明：早稻高温热害起始于抽穗前6 d至抽穗后20 d，抽穗扬花期发生概率最高，随着早稻进入乳熟期高温热害发生概率逐渐降低。早稻抽穗扬花期持续3~5 d早稻高温热害以轻度、中度为主，5 d以上中度、重度高温热害发生概率为98.77%；随着早稻进入乳熟期，高温热害以中度和轻度为主，重度高温热害概率显著降低。早稻轻度高温热害的主要致灾时段为抽穗至灌浆中期，中度高温热害的主要致灾时段为抽穗至灌浆中前期，而重度高温热害的主要致灾时段为孕穗期至灌浆初期。Abstract: Increasing of extreme hot weather has been witnessed in China in the past several decades. Rice is generally considered to be seriously threatened by hot weather, especial frequent occurrences of extreme hot weather. Though the rice heat disaster is widely studied, researches on temporal characteristics of early rice heat are lacking. It is of great merit to explore the rice heat-lead characteristics of hot weather processes, and highlight the particular period severely hit by rice heat to provide support for rice heat monitoring, prevention, and mitigation. Therefore, maximum temperature, disaster and phenological data on rice in Jiangxi are integrated to construct the historical early rice heat samples from 1981 to 2016. Nine sets of rice heat samples are built in the context of combinations of different hot weather duration (3-5 d, 6-8 d and more than 8 d) and heat levels (light, moderate and severe). Afterwards, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) and information diffusion method are adopted to analyze starting and ending dates of rice heat and their orders comparing with heading, and to explore rice heat occurring possibility and characteristics of rice heat in different level. Results show that the occurrence time of heat disaster is approximately 6 d before heading stage to 20 d after heading stage. It is with great possibility of 36.73% for heat disaster to start in 1-5 d after heading and 18.37% in -4 d-0 before heading and 6-10 d after heading. Effects of high temperature on early rice gradually decrease as the mature stage starts, with 5.61% rice heat occurring in 15 d after rice heading. The probability of moderate and light heat damage is more than 80% when 3-5 d of hot weather occurs and increases to 98.77% when more than 5 d of hot weather occurs during heading-flowering stage. It is identified that light rice heat mainly occurs in 3-17 d after heading, moderate rice heat occurs in 2-12 d after heading and severe rice heat occurs 2 d before heading and 9 d after heading. Converting to early rice phenological data, the above is concluded that major occurrence periods for light rice heat is from heading to mid-grouting stage, moderate rice heat in stage of heading to early-mid grouting and severe rice heat from booting to early grouting stage.
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图 2 不同时段早稻高温热害的概率分布
Fig. 2 Probability of starting and ending calendars of rice heat disaster in different range of days before or after heading
图 3 不同等级早稻高温热害发生概率 (a)3~5 d, (b)6~8 d, (c)8 d以上
Fig. 3 Probability of different rice heat intensity in different range of days before or after heading (a)3~5 d, (b)6~8 d, (c)more than 8 d
图 4 不同持续日数、不同等级早稻高温热害起始日、结束日累积概率曲线
Fig. 4 Accumulative probability distributions of starting and ending calendars of 3-5 d, 6-8 d and more than 8 d rice heat disasters in each level
表 1 早稻高温热害样本量信息
Table 1 Quantity information of early rice heat disaster samples
热害等级 3~5 d 6~8 d 8 d以上 轻度 19 7 10 中度 25 22 19 重度 7 13 74 
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表 2 不同持续日数、不同等级早稻高温热害样本信息
Table 2 Information of early rice heat level and hot weather duration combinations
持续日数 热害等级 起始日 结束日 最早/d 最晚/d 平均/d 最早/d 最晚/d 平均/d 3~5 d 轻度 -1 20 9.6 3 23 12.3 中度 -5 16 7.2 -3 19 10.0 重度 0 13 5.4 2 16 8.0 6~8 d 轻度 13 18 15.7 18 23 21.0 中度 -5 18 7.3 0 22 12.9 重度 -4 13 4.9 1 20 10.8 8 d以上 轻度 11 14 12.4 19 22 20.7 中度 -2 11 5.1 6 23 15.6 重度 -6 13 1.2 2 20 11.9
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表 3 早稻抽穗前后不同持续日数高温热害百分比(单位:%)
Table 3 Proportions of different duration (3~5 d, 6~8 d and more than 8 d) rice heat disaster in different range of days before or after heading (unit:%)
距抽穗日数/d
(起始日)持续日数 3~5 d 6~8 d 8 d以上 -9~-5 16.66 16.67 66.67 -4~0 16.67 13.89 69.44 1~5 18.05 13.89 68.06 6~10 38.89 27.78 33.33 11~15 31.43 31.43 37.14 16~20 54.55 45.45 0
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表 4 20%, 50%和80%累积概率的早稻高温热害起始日、结束日距抽穗期日数(单位:d)
Table 4 The starting and ending calendars of rice heat (demonstrated by days before or after heading) with cumulative probability of 20%, 50% and 80% (unit:d)
持续日数 热害等级 累积概率 开始日 结束日 20% 50% 80% 20% 50% 80% 3~5 d 轻度 3.2 9.6 16.0 5.8 12.3 18.7 中度 2.5 7.2 11.9 4.9 10.0 15.2 重度 1.5 5.4 9.4 3.7 8.0 12.3 6~8 d 轻度 14.2 15.7 17.2 19.6 21.0 22.4 中度 2.2 7.3 12.3 7.7 12.9 18.2 重度 0.7 4.9 9.0 6.1 10.8 15.5 8 d以上 轻度 11.0 12.4 13.8 19.2 20.7 22.2 中度 1.9 5.1 8.4 11.7 15.6 19.5 重度 -2.1 1.2 4.5 8.2 11.9 15.6
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