Abstract:
The forecasting and early warning technology of meteorological suitability of wheat aphids in the main growing areas can provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and high yield. Based on data of the occurrence area of wheat aphids, winter wheat growth period and daily meteorological data at 601 observation stations from 1958 to 2015 in 8 main wheat production provinces of the northern China, relationships between surface meteorological factors and the occurrence area of wheat aphids for every province in North China and Huanghuai Area are fully analyzed using methods of correlation analysis, principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis in various time-periods from last December to 10 June. Results indicate that the key meteorological factors which affect the occurrence area of wheat aphids in North China are average air temperature of last winter and in the first ten days of April, temperature-precipitation coefficients and the number of days with maximum air temperature(no less than 25℃) in March, sunshine hours in the third ten days in March, the number of days with daily maximum air temperature(no less than 28℃) in the third ten days of April, the number of heavy rain days(no less than 25 mm) in April, the number of days with relative air humidity between 40% and 80% in the first ten days in May. The key meteorological factors which affect the occurrence area of wheat aphids in Huanghuai Area are average air temperature of last winter and in March, precipitation in the third ten days of January, the number of days with relative air humidity (more than 80%) in the first ten days in March, temperature-precipitation coefficients in April, the number of rainless days in the third ten days in April. The meteorological suitability forecasting models of wheat aphids are established based on the normalized key meteorological factors in North China and Huanghuai Area. Hindcast validation results show that the forecasting accuracy for meteorological suitability models is 91.2%, 93.1% in North China and Huanghuai Area. The accuracy of extrapolation forecasting in 2016-2018 is higher than 75% in the former two areas respectively. The average accuracy of extrapolation forecasting from 2016 to 2018 is 100% in Anhui and Jiangsu using the meteorological suitability forecasting model in Huanghuai Area. Models can be put into operational application in Huang-Huai-Hai region of China.