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Spatial-temporal Distribution of Apples with Different Drought Levels in Northern China
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摘要: 为定量评估我国北方地区苹果不同干旱等级灾害时空分布特征，以我国苹果主产地为研究区域，对前人提出的干旱指数进行等级划分，结合历史灾情资料，对划分的等级进行验证；利用验证后的干旱指数，明确1981—2016年苹果不同干旱等级时空变化特征。结果表明：划分的干旱指数等级能够较好地反映我国北方地区苹果实际干旱特征；各生育阶段甘肃省中北部、宁夏回族自治区各年代以重旱发生为主，山西省、陕西省、山东省以及河南省干旱等级随年代变化较大；重旱发生面积在果树萌动-花芽萌动和成熟-落叶生育阶段1981—2000年随年代变化逐渐增加；各生育阶段无旱和重旱高频区频率高于50%，轻旱和中旱高频区频率高于30%；1981—2016年轻旱发生范围最大，果树萌动-花芽萌动生育阶段的重旱和盛花-成熟生育阶段的中旱站次比呈显著上升趋势。研究区域西北地区干旱严重，且发生频率较高。Abstract: Taking the major apple producing provinces in northern China as the research area, spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of different levels of apple drought during different growing periods are quantitatively evaluated. The drought index is graded, and historical disaster data collected are used to count disaster samples of different drought levels during different growth stages of apple, which verifies the rationality of the drought index level. Then the spatial-temporal distribution of different levels of drought, drought occurrence frequency, and occurrence range of apples during different eras in northern China are analyzed based on the validated drought grade index. Results show that among 46 total samples, the fully matched and basically matched samples account for 85%. Therefore, the drought grade index constructed can reflect the actual drought conditions reasonably for apples in northern China. Spatial distribution characteristics of drought levels decrease sequentially from north to south. The severe drought during different growing periods for apples is mainly distributed in northern and central of Gansu and northern Ningxia. The degree of drought changes greatly with the change of years in north central Shanxi from fruit tree sprouts to flower buds sprout, in Shanxi, Shandong, north Shaanxi from flower buds sprout to flower full bloom, and in Henan from mature to fallen leaves. The area of severe drought gradually increases with changes of the years from 1981 to 2010 in fruit tree sprouts to flower buds sprout and mature to fallen leaves. The frequency of no drought increases from north to south and the high frequency areas occur one time or above in two years. The frequency of severe drought decreases from north to south and the high frequency areas occur one time or above in two years. The light drought has dominated during the past 36 years in the study area, and the range of severe drought during the period from flower to maturity is larger than the other period. The ratio of drought occurring stations show a significant increasing trend for severe drought in the period from fruit tree sprouts to flower buds sprout and the moderate drought in the period from flower to maturity. The drought is severe and the frequency is high in the northwest. In the production of apples, a drought prevention plan should be prepared on the basis of drought warning, and attention should be paid to the timely response to drought at different growth stages.
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图 3 苹果各生育阶段不同年代各干旱等级空间分布
Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of drought at different levels in different growth stages of apples
图 4 1981—2016年苹果各生育阶段各干旱等级发生频率空间分布
Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of drought frequencies in different growth stages of apples from 1981 to 2016
图 5 苹果不同生育阶段各干旱等级发生站次比
Fig. 5 The ratio of drought occurring stations to all stations for different growth stages of apples
图 6 苹果各生育阶段各干旱等级发生站次比年际变化(细实线为线性趋势)
Fig. 6 Inter-annual changes in the ratio of drought occurring stations to all stations for different growth stages of apples(the thin line denotes linear trend)
表 1 苹果各生育阶段干旱指数等级
Table 1 Drought index grades for different growth stages of apples
等级 生育阶段 果树萌动-花芽萌动 花芽萌动-盛花 盛花-成熟 成熟-落叶 无旱 0＜D≤1.58 0＜D≤1.42 0＜D≤0.46 0＜D≤0.92 轻旱 1.58＜D≤6.02 1.42＜D≤5.65 0.46＜D≤0.74 0.92＜D≤2.66 中旱 6.02＜D≤17.07 5.65＜D≤15.38 0.74＜D≤1.05 2.66＜D≤8.47 重旱 D＞17.07 D＞15.38 D＞1.05 D＞8.47 
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