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基于ECMWF集合预报产品的降水相态客观预报方法

董全 张峰 宗志平

董全, 张峰, 宗志平. 基于ECMWF集合预报产品的降水相态客观预报方法. 应用气象学报, 2020, 31(5): 527-542. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20200502..
引用本文: 董全, 张峰, 宗志平. 基于ECMWF集合预报产品的降水相态客观预报方法. 应用气象学报, 2020, 31(5): 527-542. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20200502.
Dong Quan, Zhang Feng, Zong Zhiping. Objective precipitation type forecast based on ECMWF ensemble prediction product. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(5): 527-542. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20200502.
Citation: Dong Quan, Zhang Feng, Zong Zhiping. Objective precipitation type forecast based on ECMWF ensemble prediction product. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(5): 527-542. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20200502.

基于ECMWF集合预报产品的降水相态客观预报方法

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20200502
资助项目: 

国家重点研究发展计划“科技冬奥”专项 2018YFF0300104

国家科技支撑计划 2015BAC03B01

国家科技支撑计划 2015-BAC03B03

国家重点研究发展计划 2017YFC1502004

详细信息
    通信作者:

    董全, dongquan@cma.gov.cn

Objective Precipitation Type Forecast Based on ECMWF Ensemble Prediction Product

  • 摘要: 基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)集合预报系统的降水相态产品(precipitation type,PTYPE),分别以HSS评分最优、TS评分最优和频率偏差最优为标准,运用最优概率阈值法,生成雨、雨夹雪、雪和冻雨4类降水相态的确定性预报产品,并与ECMWF集合预报系统控制成员及细网格模式确定性预报进行对比。最优概率阈值显示:3种最优标准下,不同相态降水最优概率阈值不同,但冻雨和降雪最优概率阈值均最大,为40%~80%,雨夹雪最优概率阈值最小,约为10%,三者最优概率阈值均随预报时效延长而减小;降雨最优概率阈值为7%~25%,随预报时效延长而增大。对比检验结果显示:最优概率阈值法明显提高了降水相态预报能力,且以HSS评分最优时预报效果最佳;最优概率阈值法有效减小冻雨空报,同时显著改善降雨和降雪预报的频率偏差和TS评分,对雨夹雪预报改进效果有限。
  • 图  1  不同最优标准、不同相态、不同时效预报最优概率阈值

    (以OHSS为标准时无雨夹雪阈值)

    Fig. 1  Estimated optimal probability thresholds under criteria of OTS, OB, OHSS as a function of lead times for different initial times

    (no sleet threshold under criteria of OHSS)

    图  2  2018年冬半年全国降水相态、不同时效预报的HSS评分和正确率

    Fig. 2  HSS and proportion correct of precipitation type forecast at different lead times for 2018 winter half year

    图  3  2018年冬半年全国降水相态不同时效预报TS评分

    Fig. 3  TS scores of precipitation type forecast at different lead times for 2018 winter half year

    图  4  2018年冬半年全国降水相态不同时效预报频率偏差

    Fig. 4  Forecast bias of precipitation type at different lead times for 2018 winter half year

    图  5  2018年12月7日20:00起报30 h时效降水相态确定性预报(填色)与实况(离散点)对比

    (a)OPTH,(b)HRD,(c)CF

    Fig. 5  Precipitation type deterministic forecasts at lead time of 30 h from 2000 BT 7 Dec 2018(the shaded) and corresponding observations(the scattered)

    (a)OPTH, (b)HRD, (c)CF

    图  6  2018年12月7日20:00起报30 h时效ECMWF集合预报系统PTYPE概率预报(填色)和实况(离散点)对比

    (a)雨,(b)雨夹雪,(c)雪,(d)冻雨

    Fig. 6  ECMWF ensemble prediction system precipitation type probabilistic forecasts at lead time of 30 h from 2000 BT 7 Dec 2018(the shaded) and corresponding observations(the scattered)

    (a)rain, (b)sleet, (c)snow, (d)freezing rain

    图  7  2018年12月3日20:00起报126 h时效降水相态确定性预报(填色)与实况(离散点)对比

    (a)OPTH,(b)HRD,(c)CF

    Fig. 7  Precipitation type deterministic forecasts at lead time of 126 h from 2000 BT 3 Dec 2018(the shaded) and the corresponding observations(the scattered)

    (a)OPTH, (b)HRD, (c)CF

    图  8  2019年1月8日08:00起报24 h时效降水相态确定性预报(填色)与实况(离散点)对比

    (a)OPTH,(b)HRD,(c)CF

    Fig. 8  Precipitation type forecasts at lead time of 24 h from 0800 BT 8 Jan 2019(the shaded) and corresponding observations(the scattered)

    (a)OPTH, (b)HRD, (c)CF

    图  9  2019年1月4日08:00起报120 h时效降水相态确定性预报(填色)与实况(离散点)对比

    (a)OPTH,(b)HRD,(c)CF

    Fig. 9  Precipitation type forecasts at lead time of 120 h from 0800 BT 4 Jan 2019(the shaded) and corresponding observations(the scattered)

    (a)OPTH, (b)HRD, (c)CF

    表  1  雨、雨夹雪、雪和冻雨预报检验的4分类列联表

    Table  1  The contingency table for four categories of rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain

    项目 相态 观测
    雨夹雪 冻雨
    预报 a e r g
    雨夹雪 h b u v
    z l c m
    冻雨 n s q d
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-06-01
  • 修回日期:  2020-07-30
  • 刊出日期:  2020-09-30

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