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Climate Suitability Regionalization of Pecan Based on MaxEnt Model
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摘要: 基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和GIS技术，提出一种薄壳山核桃气候适宜性区划方法。利用美国本土274个种植点，结合美国本土和中国云南省1981—2010年气候数据开展薄壳山核桃气候适宜性区划研究。结果表明：7月平均气温、年平均气温、30年极端最低气温、年降水量、3—5月降水量、年日照时数和4—5月日照时数为影响薄壳山核桃气候适宜性的主要气候因子。基于美国本土种植点构建的MaxEnt模型在该区域具有较高精度，但将模型直接外推用于中国云南省可靠性不足。因此，利用模拟区域和训练样本气候因子值域的偏离程度改进气候适宜性指数，并将云南省薄壳山核桃适宜性划分为最适宜、适宜、次适宜和不适宜4个等级。其中，最适宜区和适宜区分布于热量资源丰富、日照相对充足并具备较好冬季低温条件的亚热带地区和热带地区边缘。受云南省复杂地形和气候条件影响，区划结果呈现出破碎化分布。Abstract: The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) is an effective tool for agricultural climate suitability regionalization due to its objective, quantitative characteristics and good performance. Many representative planting sites in the study area is required by this method as statistical samples. However, the current scale of pecan planting in Yunnan Province is relatively small, and the spatial distribution of planting sites is too scarce to meet the model construction requirements. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain reliable results by directly applying this model to the climatic suitability zoning of pecan.Based on MaxEnt model and Geographic Information System (GIS), an improved method of agricultural climate suitability regionalization is proposed. Regionalization of climate suitability for pecan crop in Yunnan Province of China is carried out based on local climate data combined with data from 274 pecan planting sites in the contiguous United States. Results show that the dominant factors affecting the climate suitability of pecan crop are as follows: The average temperature in July, annual average temperature, extreme minimum temperature of 30 years, annual amount of precipitation, amount of precipitation from March to May, annual accumulated sunshine hours and accumulated sunshine hours from April to May. The MaxEnt Model based on climate data from 274 pecan planting sites in the contiguous United States has high accuracy in corresponding areas. In order to apply this model in Yunnan properly, a reliability factor is introduced to improve the climate suitability index by means of modeling areas as well as the deviations of climate factors of training samples. Then based on this improved climate suitability index, the climate suitability of pecan plantation in Yunnan Province is divided into 4 grades: Optimum, suitable, sub-suitable and unsuitable, among which the areas for the optimum and suitable areas are distributed in subtropics areas and tropical marginal areas, with abundant heat resources, relatively sufficient sunshine hours and favorable chilling condition in winter. Due to the complex terrain and climatic conditions in Yunnan Province, regionalization results are substantially fragmented.
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Key words:
- climate suitability;
- maximum entropy model (MaxEnt);
- pecan
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图 1 气候因子值(Vi)与可靠性因子(Ri)的映射关系示意图
Fig. 1 The mapping relation between climatic variable(Vi) and reliability factor(Ri)
图 4 云南省可靠性因子(R)空间分布
Fig. 4 The distribution of reliability factor(R) in Yunnan Province
图 5 改进前(a)与改进后(b)气候适宜性指数的对比
Fig. 5 Comparison of climate suitability index before improvement(a) and after improvement(b)
图 6 云南省薄壳山核桃主要种植县(市、区)分布
Fig. 6 Distribution of major pecan planting counties in Yunnan Province
图 7 云南省薄壳山核桃种植气候适宜性区划
Fig. 7 Climate suitability regionalization of pecan plantation in Yunnan Province
表 1 潜在气候因子贡献率和置换重要性
Table 1 Contribution and permutation importance of each potential climatic variables
气候要素 贡献率/% 置换重要性/% 7月平均气温 37.4 24.4 年日照时数 20.1 7.3 3—5月降水量 14.2 3.9 年平均气温 7.9 6.7 活动积温 6.7 9.4 无霜期 4.0 18.6 4—5月日照时数 3.9 2.6 年降水量 2.5 8.8 8—9月降水量 2.0 3.9 30年极端最低气温 0.4 5.9 1月平均气温 0.4 5.3 6—7月降水量 0.4 3.3 
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