不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比

田野; 姚雯; 尹佳莉; 郄秀书; 曹海维; 李晋; 袁善锋; 王东方

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20210207

不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210207

田野^{1), 2)},
姚雯^3), ,,
尹佳莉¹⁾,
郄秀书⁴⁾,
曹海维¹⁾,
李晋¹⁾,
袁善锋⁴⁾,
王东方⁴⁾

1).
北京市气象探测中心, 北京 100089
2).
北京城市气象研究院, 北京 100089
3).
中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081
4).
中国科学院大气物理研究所中层大气和全球环境探测重点实验室, 北京 100029

资助项目:

灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题 2019LASW-B07

详细信息

通信作者:
姚雯, yaowen@cma.gov.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-09-29
- 修回日期: 2020-12-23
- 刊出日期: 2021-03-31

Comparison of the Performance of Different Lightning Jump Algorithms in Beijing

Tian Ye^{1), 2)},
Yao Wen^{3)
, ,},
Yin Jiali¹⁾,
Qie Xiushu⁴⁾,
Cao Haiwei¹⁾,
Li Jin¹⁾,
Yuan Shanfeng⁴⁾,
Wang Dongfang⁴⁾

1).
Beijing Meteorological Observation Center, Beijing 100089
2).
Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089
3).
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
4).
Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation (LAGEO), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

摘要

摘要: 基于S波段多普勒天气雷达基数据、北京闪电定位网全闪定位数据和北京地区降雹的人工观测结果，对比分析Gatlin和σ两种闪电跃增算法在不同配置下对北京地区2015—2018年共177次冰雹天气过程的预警效果。结果表明：不同倍数的σ算法预警结果差别很大，2σ（要求当前闪电频数变化率超过之前平均闪电频数变化率两倍标准差）在σ算法中的预警效果最佳；不同N（总闪频数变化率的数量）配置下的Gatlin算法的预警结果差别不大，其中当N=6时的预警效果最佳。2σ算法的命中率、虚警率和临界成功指数分别为80.2%，41.6%和51.1%，N=6的Gatlin算法的相应结果分别为82.5%，62.0%和35.2%。另外，详细分析了一次多单体雷暴过程和一次飑线过程中两种算法的应用情况，结果也表明Gatlin算法比2σ算法的命中率略高，但虚警率偏高很多，临界成功指数偏低。综合Gatlin算法和σ算法对冰雹预报结果评估情况，发现2σ闪电跃增算法更适于对北京冰雹天气的预警，对提升闪电数据在北京地区冰雹预报业务的可用度有一定参考价值。
- 闪电跃增;
- 冰雹;
- 预警;
- 2σ算法;
- 强对流
Abstract: Based on S-band Doppler weather radar raw data, the total lightning location data of Beijing Lightning Network (BLNET) and hailfall reports from Beijing Meteorological Service, two lightning jump algorithms, Gatlin algorithm and σ algorithm, with different configurations are compared and analyzed for early warning performance of 177 hailfall events in Beijing from 2015 to 2018. The results show that, the early warnings of different multiples of σ algorithm are quite different, 2σ (in this situation, the current changing rate of total flash exceeds two times of the standard deviation of total flash rate in previous time) has the best performance in the σ algorithm. That is to say, 2σ algorithm has the highest probability of detection (POD) and critical success index (CSI), as well as the lowest false alarm rate (FAR), comparing with σ, 3σ and 4σ algorithms. The early warnings of Gatlin algorithm under different N (which is the amount of samples before current time used to calculate the mean and standard deviation) configurations have little difference, and the early warning efficiency is best when N=6, comparing with N=7, 8, 9 and 10. The POD, FAR and CSI of 2σ algorithm are 80.2%, 41.6%, and 51.1%, respectively. The corresponding results of the Gatlin algorithm with N=6 are 82.5%, 62.0%, and 35.2%, respectively. In addition, the applications of these two algorithms to a multi-cell thunderstorm process and a squall line process are analyzed in detail. The results also show that Gatlin algorithm with N=6 has a slightly higher POD than 2σ algorithm, but its FAR is much higher and its CSI is lower. Considering the evaluation of hail nowcast results by Gatlin algorithm and 2σ algorithm, 2σ lightning jump algorithm is more suitable for hail nowcasting in Beijing. And it is beneficial to improving the application of lightning data to hail nowcasting in Beijing
- lightning jump;
- hail;
- early warning;
- 2σ algorithm;
- strong convection

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图 1 北京闪电定位网(BLNET)站点分布

Fig. 1 Distribution map of BLNET stations

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 不同σ阈值的预警效果

Fig. 2 Comparison of early warning effects of different σ thresholds

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 Gatlin算法中总闪频数变化率D数量N不同取值的预警效果

Fig. 3 Comparison of the early warning effects of Gatlin algorithm with different N of D

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2017年8月8日北京多单体对流系统的雷达组合反射率因子演变

(黑色六角形为降雹点)

Fig. 4 Radar composite reflectivity of a multi-cell convective system across Beijing on 8 Aug 2017

(the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 2017年8月8日北京多单体对流系统识别结果

(红色圈为产生降雹的单体，黑色六角形为降雹点)

Fig. 5 Identification results of strong convection cells on 8 Aug 2017

(the red polygon marks the hail-producing convection cell, the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 叠加前后3 min内总闪定位的2017年8月8日北京强对流单体识别结果

(红色圆点代表云闪, 红色×表示负地闪, 红色+表示正地闪;黑色六角形为降雹点，19：48图中插图为分裂单体与总闪定位结果叠加的放大图)

Fig. 6 Identified strong convection cells and the located total flashes in 3 min before and after the corresponding time

(the red dot indicates the intracloud flash, the red × indicates the negative cloud-to-ground flash and the red + indicates the positive cloud-to-ground flash, the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position, the illustration is an enlarged view of superposition of the split cell and the total flashes in the figure of 1948 BT)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 多单体对流系统降雹单体内的闪电频数变化和两种算法总闪频数变化率(柱状)和闪电跃增阈值(曲线)

Fig. 7 The lightning flash rate of the hail-producing cell of the multi-cell system and total flash rates(the columns) and jump thresholds(the pink curves) derived by 2σ algorithm and Gatlin algorithm

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 2015年8月7日北京飑线过程的雷达组合反射率因子

(黑色六角形为降雹点，数字代表降雹顺序)

Fig. 8 Radar composite reflectivity of a squall line across Beijing on 7 Aug 2015

(the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position, the number in each subgraph indicates the sequence of the hailfall events)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 9 飑线过程强对流单体识别结果

(黑色六角形为降雹点，数字代表降雹顺序)

Fig. 9 Identification results of every strong convection cells during the squall line process

(the black six-pointed star indicates the hailfall position, the number indicates the sequence of the hailfall events)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 10 飑线降雹单体内的闪电频数变化和两种算法总闪频数变化率(柱状)和闪电跃增阈值(曲线)

Fig. 10 The lightning flash rate of the haill-producing cell of the squall line system and total flash rates(the columns) and jump thresholds(the pink curves) derived by 2σ algorithm and Gatlin algorithm

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2015年8月7日北京飑线过程的2σ算法闪电跃增信息

Table 1 The lightning jump information of 2σ algorithm for a squall line process in Beijing on 7 Aug 2015

跃增时刻	降雹时刻	与首次跃增时刻相比得到的预警提前时间/min
16:42，16:48	17:40—17:41	58
17:10，17:16，17:26，17:28，17:40	18:00—18:06	50
18:28	18:50—18:53	22
18:28，18:30，18:52	19:15—19:20	47
18:28，18:30，18:52	19:16—19:17	48
无	19:58—20:01	漏报

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2015年8月7日北京界飑线过程的Gatlin算法闪电跃增信息

Table 2 The lightning jump information of Gatlin algorithm for a squall line process in Beijing on 7 Aug 2015

跃增时刻	降雹时刻	与首次跃增时刻相比得到的预警提前时间/min
16:42，16:48，16:54	17:40—17:41	58
17:00，17:06，17:10，17:16，17:26，17:28，17:34，17:40，17:42	18:00—18:06	60
18:28，18:30，18:32，18:52	18:50—18:53	22
18:56，19:16	19:15—19:20	19
18:56，19:16	19:16—19:17	20
19:28，19:36	19:58—20:01	30

下载: 导出CSV

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不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210207

通信作者:
姚雯, yaowen@cma.gov.cn

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Comparison of the Performance of Different Lightning Jump Algorithms in Beijing

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留言板

不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210207

通信作者: 姚雯, yaowen@cma.gov.cn

计量

出版历程

Comparison of the Performance of Different Lightning Jump Algorithms in Beijing

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出版历程

目录

通信作者:
姚雯, yaowen@cma.gov.cn