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Circulation Characteristics and Thermal and Dynamic Conditions 48 Hours Before Typhoon Formation in the South China Sea
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摘要: 利用1979—2019年4—11月中国气象局上海台风研究所热带气旋最佳路径资料和静止卫星红外云图资料，筛选出189例南海台风，结合欧洲中期天气预报中心1°×1°再分析资料，分析南海台风生成前48 h至生成时刻的天气环流和动力、热力条件。结果表明：南海台风生成于热带洋面大范围的高海表温度、高水汽含量和高不稳定层结区，其生成前的主要环境背景环流是赤道辐合带、西南季风或东风波等；台风生成前扰动中心常常处于其北侧风切变小而南侧风切变大的过渡带中，少数扰动中心倾向于风切变小值中心附近，风切变与扰动的发展之间无显著相关；扰动中心一般与垂直涡度中心重合，垂直涡度中心是表征扰动自身强弱的物理量，但垂直涡度自身的大小与未来扰动发展趋势关系不明显，而Okubo-Weiss（OW）指数则对于扰动的发展以及扰动位置确定有较好的指示意义；在扰动发展过程中，扰动中心附近存在一个贯穿整个对流层的位涡柱，低层扰动部分与位涡柱中的中低层位涡相互作用，有利于扰动发展。Abstract: Based on the tropical cyclone best track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration and the geostationary infrared satellite cloud image from April to November during 1979-2019, 189 typhoons formed in the South China Sea are selected as target cases. The circulation characteristics, dynamic and thermal conditions from 48 hours before typhoon formation to the time of typhoon generation are analyzed using the reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with 1°×1° grid. The results indicate that the typhoon in the South China Sea is formed in a large range of tropical ocean with high surface temperature, high water vapor content and unstable stratification. The development of deep convection and its distance to the tropical disturbance center can be used as an observation criterion for whether the tropical disturbance can develop into typhoon in the next 48 hours. Intertropical convergence is the dominant background circulation of typhoon formation in the South China Sea, and south-west monsoon or easterly wave are also main large-scale circulation. The center of typhoon disturbance is often in the transition zone of the vertical shear, where the vertical shear of the north side of the disturbance becomes smaller and the vertical shear of the south side becomes larger. Sometimes the disturbance center is slightly inclined to the weak vertical shear center. As a whole, there is no significant correlation between wind vertical shear and typhoon disturbance development. The center of tropical disturbance generally coincides with the center of vertical vorticity, and the center of vertical vorticity could be considered as a physical quantity representing the strength of disturbance itself. Furthermore, it is difficult to define the development of the vertical vorticity as an indicator to characterize the development trend of disturbance, while the Okubo-Weiss (OW) index is a good indicator for the development of disturbance and the determination of the disturbance location. In the process of typhoon disturbance development, there is a potential vortex column running through the whole troposphere near the disturbance center. Within the potential vortex column near the disturbance center, the interaction between lower disturbance and the potential vortex in middle and low layer is beneficial to the development of typhoon disturbance.
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图 1 南海台风生成频数的年际变化(a)和月际变化(b)
Fig. 1 The inter-annual variation(a) and monthly variation(b) of the number of typhoon in the South China Sea
图 2 南海台风米克拉(0220)生成前48 h的2002年9月23日08：00(北京时，下同)静止卫星GMS红外云图(a)和南海台风灿都(0405)生成前的48 h 2004年6月9日02：00静止卫星GOE红外云图(b)
(为扰动中心位置，直径1.5个纬度圆为距离扰动中心最近的广阔深对流)
Fig. 2 The infrared cloud image of geostationary satellite GMS at 0800 BT 23 Sep 2002 for Typhoon Mekkhala(a) and the infrared cloud image of geostationary satellite GOE at 0200 BT 9 Jun 2004 for Typhoon Chanthu(b) in the South China Sea 48 hours before typhoon formation
( denotes the center of tropical disturbance, the circle with diameter 1.5 degree denotes the area of vast deep convection closest to the disturbance center)
图 3 南海台风生成前48 h扰动中心所在850 hPa风场及相应的200 hPa风场前3个特征向量空间模态分布
(为扰动中心位置)
Fig. 3 The spatial distribution of the first 3 eigenvectors of wind field near the disturbance center at 850 hPa and 200 hPa 48 hours before typhoon formation in the South China Sea
( denotes the disturbance center)
图 4 2011年南海台风海马(1104)(a)、2011年南海台风海棠(1118)(b)生成前48 h海表温度(等值线，单位：℃，红色等值线为26.5℃)和对流有效位能(填色)
(实心圆及其红色连线为台风生成前48 h内扰动路径，生成前48 h位置为黑色实心圆；台风符号为台风生成最佳路径位置)
Fig. 4 The sea surface temperature(the contour, unit:℃, the red one is 26.5℃) and the convective potential energy(the shaded) 48 hours before typhoon formation for Typhoon Haima in 2011(a) and Typhoon Haitang in 2011(b) in the South China Sea
(the solid circle and red connector denotes the disturbance track inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation, the black solid circle denotes the position of disturbance center at 48 hours before typhoon formation, the typhoon symbol is the location for typhoon formation)
图 5 南海台风生成前48 h内扰动中心附近海表温度(a)、对流有效位能(b)箱体图及台风生成前48 h(c)和台风生成时刻(d)扰动路径上海表至300 hPa扰动中心大气水汽含量变化箱体图
Fig. 5 The box diagram for the time evolution of the sea surface temperature(a) and convective potential energy(b) of the disturbance center inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation with the box diagram for the water vapor content of the disturbance center from sea-level surface to 300 hPa along the track of the disturbance 48 hours before typhoon formation(c) and at the time of typhoon formation(d)
图 6 2011年南海台风海马(1104)生成前48 h(a)、生成时刻(b)可降水量(填色)与600 hPa相对湿度(等值线，单位：%)(其他说明同图 4)
Fig. 6 The atmospheric precipitable water(the shaded) and relative humidity at 600 hPa(the contour, unit:%) 48 hours before typhoon formation(a) and the time of typhoon formation(b) for Typhoon Haima in 2011(the others same as in Fig. 4)
图 7 2011年南海台风海马(1104)生成前48 h 850 hPa流线(黑色)和200 hPa流线(绿色)(a)、200 hPa与850 hPa风垂直切变流线和风切变幅度(填色)(b) 及台风赫伯特(8005)生成前48 h 200 hPa与850 hPa风垂直切变流线和风切变幅度(填色)(c)
(其他说明同图 4)
Fig. 7 The streamline at 850 hPa(the black) and 200 hPa(the green) 48 hours before typhoon formation for Typhoon Haima in 2011(a), the streamline of the wind vertical shear and the wind shear amplitude(the shaded) between 200 hPa and 850 hPa 48 hours before typhoon formation for Typhoon Haima in 2011(b), the streamline of the wind vertical shear(black line) and the wind shear amplitude(the shaded) between 200 hPa and 850 hPa 48 hours before typhoon formation for Typhoon Herbert in 1980(c)
(the others same as in Fig. 4)
图 8 台风生成前48 h内扰动中心附近风切变时间演变箱体图(a)和台风生成前48 h扰动移动路径上扰动中心附近风切变箱体图(b)
Fig. 8 The box diagram for the wind shear amplitude change near the disturbance center inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation(a) and the box diagram for the wind shear amplitude near the disturbance center along the track of the disturbance 48 hours before typhoon formation(b)
图 9 南海台风生成前48 h内扰动中心附近(a)和台风生成前48 h扰动路径上扰动中心附近(b)850 hPa垂直涡度变化箱体图
Fig. 9 The box diagram for the vertical vorticity change of the disturbance center at 850 hPa inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation(a) and the disturbance center at 850 hPa along the track of the disturbance 48 hours before typhoon formation(b)
图 10 台风生成前48 h内扰动中心附近850 hPa(a)和500 hPa(b)OW指数演变箱体图以及台风生成前48 h扰动移动路径上扰动中心附近850 hPa(c)和500 hPa(d)OW指数箱体图
Fig. 10 The box diagram for the time evolution of OW index of the disturbance center at 850 hPa(a) and 500 hPa(b) inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation with the change of OW index of the disturbance center along the track of the disturbance 48 hours before typhoon formation at 850 hPa(c) and 500 hPa(d)
图 11 台风生成前48 h以及台风生成时刻过扰动中心位涡(单位：10-6 m2·K·s-1·kg-1)及垂直速度(单位：Pa·s-1)纬向垂直分布
Fig. 11 The zonal distribution of potential vortices(unit:10-6 m2·K·s-1·kg-1) and the vertical velocity(unit:Pa·s-1) on the isobaric surface of the disturbance center during typhoon formation at the time of 48 hours before typhoon formation and the time of typhoon formation
图 12 30个南海台风生成个例生成前48 h(a)及台风生成时刻(b)过扰动中心垂直速度(单位：Pa·s-1)纬向垂直分布
Fig. 12 The zonal distribution of the vertical velocity on the isobaric surface of the disturbance center during typhoon formation at the time of 48 hours before typhoon formation(a) and the time of typhoon formation(b) of 30 typhoon cases
表 1 南海台风生成前48 h 850 hPa及200 hPa经向风和纬向风分量联合EOF分解前8个特征向量的方差贡献率和累计方差贡献率
Table 1 The variance contribution and the cumulative variance contribution of the first 8 eigenvectors of combined EOF analysis of u and v at 850 hPa and 200 hPa 48 hours before typhoon formation in the South China Sea
贡献率 特征向量 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 方差贡献率/% 57.2 9.2 5.4 3.2 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 累计方差贡献率/% 57.2 66.4 71.8 75.0 77.5 79.1 80.5 81.6 
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