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Distributions of High and Stable Yield Zones for Potato in the Single-cropping Region in Northern China
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摘要: 北方一作区马铃薯种植面积和总产量居我国首位，明确其高产稳产区分布，对马铃薯种植合理布局具有重要意义。基于1981—2019年研究区域内234个气象站点逐日气象数据以及作物、土壤数据，利用APSIM-Potato模型，以产量平均值和变异系数为高产性和稳产性评价指标，将研究区域划分为高产高稳、高产低稳、低产高稳和低产低稳4个亚区，分析不同生产水平下我国北方一作区马铃薯高产稳产区分布特征，探讨降水和土壤对马铃薯高产性和稳产性的影响。结果表明：不同生产水平下马铃薯高产区比例呈下降趋势；随着限制因素增加，高产高稳区面积比例逐渐降低，气候-土壤潜在生产水平下高产高稳区面积比例仅占研究区域总面积的13%；高产低稳区是潜在的高产高稳区，及时采取有效措施可提升稳产性。降水对马铃薯高产性和稳产性的影响大于土壤。实际生产中，降水和土壤限制下高产性和稳产性降低的区域，应注意结合当地灌溉条件配合耕作措施，以确保马铃薯高产稳产。
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关键词:
- 北方一作区;
- 马铃薯;
- 高产稳产区;
- 产量潜力;
- APSIM-Potato模型
Abstract: The planting area and production of potato in the single-cropping region in northern China (SCRN) are in the first place in China, which plays a prominent role for maintaining national food security. It's essential to understand the potato yield potential in SCRN for regional optimized distribution and improvement of potato production. Two indices, i.e., the average and the coefficient of variation of potato yield potential under different production levels, are employed to investigate the potato yield level and yield stability. Based on the meteorological data from 234 weather stations from 1981 to 2019, the soil data and the crop data in the study region, the yield potentials under different production levels (i.e., potential production level, rainfed potential production level, and the climate-soil potential production level, respectively) are simulated using the well-calibrated and validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulater of Potato (APSIM-Potato). The study area is classified into four types of zones with different yield patterns: High yield level and high yield stability zones, high yield level and low yield stability zones, low yield level and high yield stability zones, and low yield level and low yield stability zones. Based on the zoning indices and the standards, the distributions of four types of yield zones under different production levels are clarified and the effect of precipitation and soil on yield level and yield stability are analyzed. An increasing trend of the station percentage for high yield zones is defined during the period from 1981 to 2019. The proportion of high yield level and high yield stability zones in the study area decreases gradually with the constraints increasing from the potential production level with the radiation and temperature constrained to the climate-soil potential production level with the radiation, temperature, precipitation and soil constrained. Only 13% of the study area over the study period (1981-2019) shows the yield pattern of high yield level and high yield stability zones under the climate-soil potential production level. The high yield level and low yield stability zones are the potential high yield level and high yield stability zones in the future, which need further attention and effective measures to improve the yield stability of potato. Precipitation shows a greater effect on the potato yield level and yield stability than soil in the study region. To ensure the high and stable yield of potato in the study region, more attentions should be paid on the regions with negative effect of precipitation and soil on the yield level and yield stability. Actions should be taken into considering both on the local irrigation levels and the tillage measures. -
图 2 不同生产水平下马铃薯产量潜力平均值(a)和变异系数(b)的累积概率分布
Fig. 2 Distributions of the cumulative probability for the average yield potentials(a) and coefficients of variation(b) for potato under different production levels
图 3 不同生产水平下北方一作区马铃薯高产区和稳产区分布
Fig. 3 Distributions of yield level zones and yield stability zones under different production levels for potato in the single-cropping region in northern China
图 4 不同生产水平下北方一作区马铃薯高产区和稳产区时间变化
Fig. 4 Temporal trends of the station percentage for the high-yield levels, the low-yield levels, the high-yield stability and low-yield stability for potato in the single-cropping region in northern China
图 5 不同生产水平下我国北方一作区马铃薯高产稳产区分布
Fig. 5 Distributions of the high-stable zones for potato under different production levels in the single- cropping region in northern China
图 6 北方一作区马铃薯降水和土壤限制下高产性和稳产性降低的区域
Fig. 6 Distributions of negative changes in yield level and yield stability zones due to precipitation and soil for potato in the single-cropping region in northern China
表 1 不同生产水平下马铃薯产量潜力意义及影响因素
Table 1 The definition of yield potentials and influencing factors under different production levels
生产水平 产量层次 影响因素 意义 潜在生产水平 光温产量潜力Yp 辐射、温度 作物产量的上限 雨养潜在生产水平 气候产量潜力Ycp 辐射、温度、降水 没有灌溉条件地区作物产量的上限 气候-土壤潜在生产水平 气候-土壤产量潜力Ycsp 辐射、温度、降水、土壤 当地气候资源和土壤因素决定的产量 
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表 2 不同生产水平下马铃薯产量潜力模拟情景设置
Table 2 Scenarios to simulate the yield potentials under different production levels in the APSIM-Potato
产量层次 品种 土壤 管理 灌溉 施肥 光温产量潜力Yp 克新一号 适宜 充分 充分 气候产量潜力Ycp 克新一号 适宜 雨养 充分 气候-土壤产量潜力Ycsp 克新一号 实际 雨养 充分
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表 3 不同生产水平下马铃薯高产区和稳产区面积及比例
Table 3 Cropping areas and proportions of yield level zones and yield stability zones under different production levels
区域 潜在生产水平 雨养潜在生产水平 气候-土壤潜在生产水平 面积/(106 km2) 比例/% 面积/(106 km2) 比例/% 面积/(106 km2) 比例/% 高产区 3.31 66 1.70 34 1.53 31 低产区 1.69 34 3.30 66 3.47 69 高稳区 3.10 62 1.43 29 1.27 25 低稳区 1.90 38 3.57 71 3.73 75
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表 4 不同生产水平下马铃薯高产稳产区面积及比例
Table 4 Cropping areas and proportions of high-stable zones for potato under different production levels in the study region
区域 潜在生产水平 雨养潜在生产水平 气候-土壤潜在生产水平 面积/(106 km2) 比例/% 面积/(106 km2) 比例/% 面积/(106 km2) 比例/% 高产高稳区 1.99 40 1.26 25 0.65 13 高产低稳区 1.21 24 0.42 8 0.71 14 低产高稳区 0.69 14 0.41 8 1.63 33 低产低稳区 1.11 22 2.91 59 2.01 40
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