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Climatic Suitability Zoning of Tea Planting in Mainland China
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摘要: 基于1961—2019年全国1903个气象站点的气候数据以及1115条茶树分布站点记录，利用最大熵模型和GIS技术筛选影响茶树种植的主导气候因子，根据自然间断点分级法将中国大陆茶树气候适宜性划分为不适宜区、次适宜区、适宜区和高适宜区4个等级，厘定不同区划等级的主导气候因子阈值。结果表明：影响中国大陆地区茶树种植分布的主导气候因子为多年平均极端最低气温、春霜冻频率、年平均气温、年降水量和3—9月平均相对湿度。模型区划结果与名茶之乡、地理标志茶叶所在地吻合较好。茶树适生区的北界总体呈现出由东部高纬度向西部低纬度降低的分布态势，北界界限移动较明显地区主要分布在东部高纬度省份。整体茶树适生区质心的年代际变化较为平缓，除20世纪60—70年代和80—90年代的适生区范围有所缩小外，其他相邻年代际间茶树适生区的面积均呈现出不同程度的增长趋势，与质心迁移情况相吻合。Abstract: Starting from the national scale and annual level, the potential climate factors are interpolated into 10 km×10 km grid data based on the daily data set of 1903 weather stations from 1961 to 2019 across the country, and a tea plant distribution dataset consisting 1115 records is established. Using the maximum entropy model and GIS technology, the dominant climatic factors affecting tea plant in mainland China are screened according to the contribution percentage and Jackknife method, and the climatic suitability zoning of tea plant is divided into 4 grades: Unsuitable, sub-suitable, suitable and optimum, using the natural break point classification method. The threshold values of dominant climate factors for different division levels are determined and the climate characteristics of tea suitable zones are analyzed. The result shows that the maximum entropy model constructed based on the dominant affecting climatic factors is suitable for climatic suitability zoning of tea plant. The dominant climatic factors affecting the distribution of tea plant are averaged extreme minimum temperature, the frequency of spring frost, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and averaged relative humidity from March to September. The zoning results by the model are in good agreement with the distribution of famous tea towns and the location of geographical symbol tea. The changes of areas suitable for tea plant in different periods are also studied, and it shows that the north boundary of the tea plant suitable area for the six decadal periods from 1961 to 2019 is roughly the same, and all regions show a decreasing distribution trend from high latitudes in the east to low latitudes in the west. The areas where the northern boundary moves obviously are mainly in the high-latitude provinces in the east. The decadal variation of the centroid of the overall tea plant suitable area is relatively slight: The suitable areas expand northwards gradually except for the 1960s-1970s and the 1980s-1990s. These results provide a scientific basis for rational planning of tea planting layout and scientific development of tea industry. The zoning method adequately considers climatic conditions of the study area under natural conditions. However, other factors such as land use types, soil conditions, and tea varieties are not fully considered, and the interpolation method does not consider the influence of altitude on meteorological elements, which makes the result of area optimum for tea planting larger than reality.
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Key words:
- maximum entropy model;
- tea plant;
- climate suitability;
- zoning;
- interdecadal changes
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图 1 研究区域、气象站点以及茶树站点地理分布
Fig. 1 Location of the meteorological stations and tea plant sites in China
图 2 基于Jackknife法的潜在气候因子对中国茶树种植分布贡献
Fig. 2 Contribution of potential climate factors based on Jackknife method to tea plant distribution in China
图 4 茶树区划结果与名茶之乡、地理标志茶叶所在地的比较
Fig. 4 Comparison of zoning results of tea plant with famous tea town and the location of geographical symbol tea
图 5 不同年代际茶树适生区北界变化
Fig. 5 Changes in the northern boundary of tea plant suitable areas in different decades
表 1 潜在气候因子的贡献百分率和置换重要性
Table 1 Contribution percentage and permutation importance of potential climate factors
变量 贡献百分率/% 置换重要性/% 多年平均极端最低气温 36.7 4.4 年降水量 24.8 33.3 春霜冻频率 22.7 32.0 年平均气温 6.5 1.8 年日照时数 3.2 7.7 3—9月平均相对湿度 2.0 3.0 大于等于10℃活动积温 1.5 2.8 海拔高度 1.5 6.8 最冷月平均气温 1.1 8.2 
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表 2 影响中国茶树气候适宜性等级分布的气候因子分级指标
Table 2 Graded climate factors affecting the distribution of climatic suitability grades of tea trees in China
区域 多年平均极端最低气温(TM)/℃ 春霜冻频率(R)/% 年平均气温(T)/℃ 年降水量(P)/mm 3—9月平均相对湿度(F)/% 高适宜区 TM＞-7.8 R≤20 T＞15.5 P＞1010 F＞76 适宜区 -9.2＜TM≤-7.8 20＜R≤27 14.4＜T≤15.5 810＜P≤1010 73＜F≤76 次适宜区 -14.7＜TM≤-9.2 27＜R≤43 12.4＜T≤14.4 650＜P≤810 67＜F≤73 不适宜区 TM≤-14.7 R＞43 T≤12.4 P≤650 F≤67
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表 3 不同时期茶树适生区质心分布
Table 3 Distribution of centroids of tea plant suitable area for different periods
不同时期 质心位置 移动距离/km 1961—1970年 28.45°N，110.69°E 1971—1980年 28.32°N, 110.76°E 16.08 1981—1990年 28.60°N, 110.71°E 31.45 1991—2000年 28.40°N, 110.77°E 22.09 2001—2010年 28.42°N, 110.75°E 2.73 2011—2019年 28.64°N, 110.90°E 28.21
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