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Refined Climatic Zoning of Spring Soybean in Northeast China
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摘要: 以东北春大豆为研究对象，分早熟、中熟和晚熟3类熟型构建东北春大豆气候区划指标。利用基于模糊数学的区划指标隶属度函数和作物反应函数两种气候适宜度评价方法，结合精细化插值（Anusplin插值）后的东北地区1990—2019年气象数据，从时间、空间（1 km×1 km农田）和熟型开展东北春大豆精细化气候区划。结果表明：8月平均温度、5—9月累积降水量和7月累积日照时数是影响春大豆相对气象产量的主要气象要素。分熟型的气候区划结果在表达春大豆单产分布和产量稳定性方面优于不分熟型。根据气候适宜度和减产率的定量关系将适宜度评价结果分为最适宜、适宜、次适宜、不适宜4个等级，其中东北地区最适宜春大豆种植的区域主要集中在松嫩平原的北部和三江平原中南部。随着气候变暖，适宜春大豆种植区域向高纬度和高海拔地区扩大。Abstract: The spring soybean in Northeast China is studied, and its climatic zoning index is determined by multi-year relative meteorological yield and meteorological data considering three maturity types of soybeans: Early, medium and late. Considering the influence of temperature, light and water on soybean growth, two suitability evaluation methods, zoning indicator affiliation function and crop response function, are selected to evaluate the climatic suitability of soybean in Northeast China using meteorological data from 1990-2019 after refined interpolation (Anusplin interpolation). The evaluation results are verified using yield indicators. Climatic zoning class thresholds are determined based on the quantitative relationship between yield reduction rate and suitability of soybeans, and refined climatic zoning is conducted for two time periods, 1990-2004 and 2005-2019. The results show that the average temperature in August, cumulative rainfall from May to September and cumulative sunshine hours in July are the main meteorological factors affecting the relative meteorological yield of soybeans. The climatic zoning indexes for soybean in early, medium and late maturity zones are different. Compared with the results of climate suitability evaluation without maturity type, the evaluation results based on different maturity type indicators are more detailed in spatial distribution and better in expressing the distribution of soybean yields and yield stability. When yield data are lacking, the climate zoning results based on crop response functions is a good complement, which can indicate the distribution of soybean yields, but has shortcomings in the description of yield stability. According to the quantitative relationship between climate suitability and yield reduction rate, the evaluation results are classified as four levels: Most suitable (0.76 ≤ S ≤ 1), suitable (0.65 ≤ S < 0.76), sub-suitable (0.49 ≤ S < 0.65) and unsuitable (0 ≤ S < 0.49). The most suitable areas for soybean cultivation in Northeast China are concentrated in the northern part of the Songnen Plain and the south-central part of the Sanjiang Plain. As the climate warms, areas suitable for soybean cultivation expand to higher latitudes and higher altitudes. Refined climatic zoning of soybean in Northeast China is carried out at three levels: Temporal, spatial (1 km by 1 km farmland), and maturity type. The results of the refined climatic zoning can provide scientific basis for the full and rational use of climate resources and optimization of soybean planting structure in Northeast China.
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图 1 研究区及气象站点和春大豆熟型空间分布
Fig. 1 The target area with meteorological stations and spring soybean maturity types
图 2 东北春大豆关键气象要素与相对气象产量二次曲线拟合
Fig. 2 Quadratic curve fitting of key meteorological elements and relative meteorological yield of spring soybean in Northeast China
图 3 基于区划指标隶属度函数的东北春大豆气候适宜度(不分熟型)
Fig. 3 Climate suitability of spring soybean based on the affiliation function of zoning index in Northeast China (with no distinction of maturity type)
图 4 基于区划指标隶属度函数的东北各熟型春大豆气候适宜度
Fig. 4 Climate suitability of based on the affiliation function of the zoning index in Northeast China
图 5 基于作物反应函数的东北早熟、中熟和晚熟春大豆气候适宜度最大值合成空间分布
Fig. 5 Synthetic spatial distribution of early, medium and late maturity climate suitability maxima for spring soybean based on crop response functions
图 6 东北春大豆气候适宜度与产量指标相关
Fig. 6 Correlation between climate suitability and yield index of spring soybean in Northeast China
图 7 隶属度函数的气候适宜度与相对气象产量关系
Fig. 7 Relationship between climate suitability based on the affiliation function and relative meteorological yield
表 1 春大豆各发育阶段三基点温度
Table 1 Triple base point temperature of spring soybean at each reproductive stage
生育阶段 下限温度/℃ 最适温度/℃ 上限温度/℃ 播种-出苗 7 16 26 出苗-三真叶 10 19 30 三真叶-开花 13 22 32 开花-结荚 16 26 32 结荚-鼓粒 14 23 30 鼓粒-成熟 10 18 26 
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表 2 东北春大豆生长季内气象要素与相对气象产量相关系数
Table 2 Correlation coefficients between meteorological elements and relative meteorological yield during the growing season of spring soybean in Northeast China
时段 温度 降水 日照 5月 -0.28 0.26 0.24 6月 -0.27 0.32 -0.28 7月 0.01 0.37 -0.39 8月 -0.33 0.33 -0.31 9月 0.30 0.15 -0.23 生长季 0.28 0.40 -0.34
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表 3 早熟、中熟、晚熟型和东北(不分熟型) 春大豆气候区划指标
Table 3 Climatic zoning indicators for early, medium, late maturing spring soybean regions and the whole area (with no distinction of maturity type) in Northeast China
气象要素 阈值 早熟 中熟 晚熟 东北地区(不分熟型) 适宜下限 17.0 17.6 17.8 17.4 8月平均温度/℃ 最适宜 19.1 20.4 21.3 21.0 适宜上限 21.2 23.2 24.8 24.6 适宜下限 244.3 316.8 372.4 354.4 5—9月累积降水量/mm 最适宜 490.7 550.6 629.9 600.2 适宜上限 737.0 784.2 887.2 845.8 适宜下限 169.5 152.8 86.1 119.4 7月累积日照时数/h 最适宜 233.2 210.4 160.3 188.7 适宜上限 296.9 268.1 234.6 257.9
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