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Refined Climatic Zoning for Citrus Cultivation in Southern China Based on Climate Suitability
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摘要: 为探究气候变化对南方柑橘种植气候适宜性的影响，基于气候适宜度函数建立柑橘发育期温度、降水、日照以及综合适宜度模型，对南方柑橘种植区近60年（1960—2019年）361个气象站观测数据进行精细化插值（Anusplin插值）并计算气候适宜度，采用自然断点法分4个等级对柑橘种植区进行气候区划，并分前、后30年对比分析研究区气候资源及适宜度的空间变化特征。结果表明：与前30年相比，后30年的温度适宜度并未出现较大变化，降水适宜度低值区有所扩大，日照适宜度低值区有所减小；柑橘最适宜种植区主要集中于四川东部、云南南部、重庆西北部、广西、湖北大部分区域；最适宜种植区面积减小约29%，不适宜种植区面积扩大约34%。经高温热害及低温冻害概率空间分布验证，区划结果的准确性较高，可以用于指导和优化柑橘种植及生产实践。Abstract: In recent years, global warming leads to the increase of heat resources, the shift of agricultural climatic zones, and the lengthening of crop growing season. These phenomena make citrus often suffer the effects of high temperature heat damage and low temperature freezing damage. At present, the refined climatic zoning of cash crops mainly focuses on tomato, cotton and other crops, but there are few studies involving citrus. Therefore, suitability evaluation model is used to accurately and quantitatively regionalize citrus planting, and to provide a basis for scientific planting and rational distribution of citrus.Using the climate suitability function, the temperature, precipitation, sunshine and comprehensive suitability models of citrus growth period are established. With Anusplin software, the observations of 361 meteorological stations in southern citrus growing region in recent 60 years (1960-2019) are interpolated and the climate suitability is calculated. Then the natural breakpoint method is used to divide the citrus growing area into four levels. The spatial variation characteristics of climate resources and suitability in target area are compared and analyzed in three decades. The results show that most of the regions in target area meet the climatic resources required for the normal growth and development of citrus, and the suitability of temperature, precipitation and sunshine show obvious spatial heterogeneity. The temperature suitability increases from west to east, the precipitation suitability decreases from north to south, the spatial distribution of sunshine suitability is high in the east and low in the west. The suitability of citrus planting is divided into 4 grades: Unsuitability (0 < Fc ≤ 0.17), sub-suitability (0.17 < Fc ≤ 0.36), suitability (0.36 < Fc ≤ 0.48), and most suitability (0.48 < Fc ≤ 0.74). The most suitable areas are mainly in the eastern part of Sichuan, the southern part of Yunnan, the northwestern part of Chongqing, Guangxi and Hubei, and the northwestern part of Sichuan is the unsuitable area. Since 1990, the area of the most suitable planting area has decreased by about 29%, and the area of the unsuitable planting area has increased by 34%. The spatial distribution of high temperature and heat damage and low temperature freezing damage probability verify the accuracy of the zoning results, which can be used to guide and optimize citrus planting and production practice.Different varieties of citrus and site conditions lead to different climate suitability responses. Besides, climate change has obvious impacts on crop planting structure, physiological traits and yield. Therefore, climatic regionalization research on different varieties should be paid more attention especially considering the future climate change scenarios, so as to support the planting and production of citrus.
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图 2 1960—2019年柑橘研究区日照、降水及热量资源分布
Fig. 2 Distribution of light, precipitation and heat resources for citrus in target area from 1960 to 2019
图 3 1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区温度适宜度空间分布
Fig. 3 Distribution of temperature suitability for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019
图 4 1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区降水适宜度空间分布
Fig. 4 Distribution of rainfall suitability for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019
图 5 1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区日照适宜度空间分布
Fig. 5 Distribution of sunshine suitability for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019
图 6 1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区气候区划
Fig. 6 Climatic division for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019
图 7 1960—1989年、1990—2019年柑橘研究区高温热害概率分布
Fig. 7 Probability distribution of high temperature heat damage for citrus in target area during 1960-1989 and 1990-2019
图 8 1960—2019年柑橘研究区冻害概率分布
Fig. 8 Probability distribution of freezing injury for citrus in target area during 1960-2019
表 1 南方柑橘种植区各发育期时间和温度指标[1, 12, 17, 20]
Table 1 Growth stages and temperature indexes in southern citrus growing area (from Reference [1, 12, 17, 20])
发育期 时段 下限温度tl/℃ 适宜温度t0/℃ 上限温度th/℃ 作物系数Kc 发芽期 02-15—04-10 8.1 14.0 26.0 0.48 花期 04-15—05-10 11.8 20.0 30.0 0.65 生理落果期 05-15—06-15 13.0 21.0 30.0 0.76 果实生长发育期 06-20—10-01 13.0 22.0 34.0 0.95 果实成熟期 10-05—11-10 13.0 21.0 27.0 0.70 花芽分化期 11-20—02-10 -5.0 12.5 23.0 0.39 
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等级 日最高气温(Tc)及持续时间 轻度 Tc≥37℃持续3~4 d 中度 Tc≥37℃持续5~6 d 重度 Tc≥37℃持续7 d及以上
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级别 越冬期极端最低气温Td/℃ 越冬期最长持续降水日数Dr/d 越冬期日最低气温不高于-1.5℃最长持续日数Dc/d 0级 Td>-3 Dr < 2 Dc < 2 1级 -5 < Td≤-3 2≤Dr < 5 2≤Dc < 4 2级 -7 < Td≤-5 5≤Dr < 10 4≤Dc < 6 3级 -9 < Td≤-7 10≤Dr < 15 6≤Dc < 8 4级 -11 < Td≤-9 15≤Dr < 20 8≤Dc < 10 5级 Td≤-11 Dr≥20 Dc≥10
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表 4 低温冻害等级划分
Table 4 Classification of low temperature freezing damage
等级 冻害指数I 轻度 6≤I < 11 中度 11≤I < 16 偏重度 16≤I < 21 严重度 21≤I < 26 特重度 I≥26
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