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Reconstruction of Crop Development Model with Its Simulation Test Based on Sugarcane
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摘要: 发育进程是作物的生理年龄，发育模式是作物生长模型的时间指针。但目前的发育模式只关注某时段（日）气象条件对作物发育的影响，其准确率也难以满足作物生长模拟的需求。根据作物发育速率不仅与气象条件有关、还与其所处发育期有关的理论假设，重构发育进程模式，并利用1980—2019年我国甘蔗发育实测数据进行模式适应性分析，比较传统模式与重构模式的模拟能力。结果表明：重构模式中，发育单位日序模式和温度日序模式对甘蔗发育进程的适应性均较好，尤其在后期温度不断降低的发育进程以及低温年型的模拟中，其适应能力明显优于传统模式。重构及传统模式模拟能力从强到弱依次为发育单位日序模式、温度日序模式、响应适应模式、发育单位模式、发育单位温度修正模式、热量单位模式，均方根误差计算的模拟能力值依次为4.3，3.9，3.7，3.3，3.0，2.8。Abstract: Crop growth model describes the development and growth process of crop. Development process is the physiological age of crops, which is related to the morphological changes of crops, and is a landmark stage of crop growth to achieve qualitative change. Development process is the time indicator of crop growth model. Reasonable description of the crop development process is the premise of high accuracy of crop growth model. At present, although different crop development models have been developed and widely used in crop growth models, their simulation ability can hardly meet the needs of crop growth simulation. These models only focus on the impact of meteorological conditions in a certain period (day), but do not particularly consider the period of crop development, which may be an important factor for the low accuracy of model simulation.It is assumed that the development rate of a crop on a certain day is not only related to the meteorological conditions of that day, but also related to its development stage. The development stage of crop is represented by the date, so that the temperature-day (TAd) and development unit-day (CHUd) models are constructed. In addition, according to the principle of heat unit corrected by temperature model (THUa), the development unit corrected by temperature model (CHUa) is constructed. Based on the principle of response-adaptation of temperature model (RAM), the response-adaptation of development unit model (CHUr) is established.The adaptability of the development model for sugarcane is analyzed by using the field data of 30 agrometeorological stations in China from 1980 to 2019, and the advantages and disadvantages between the traditional development model and the reconstructed model are compared. The results show that CHUd and TAd model have better adaptability to simulate the development process of sugarcane, especially in the later stage of the development process when the temperature is decreasing. Compared with the original model (CHU), the adaptive ability of CHUa model for sugarcane decreases from seedling emergence to stem elongation but increases from stem elongation to maturity. The theoretical description of CHUr model is not tenable. Sorted by simulation ability, the order of development models is as follows: CHUd, TAd, RAM, CHU, CHUa and the heat unit (THU) model, and their simulation ability values (SCV) calculated by root mean square difference are 4.3, 3.9, 3.7, 3.3, 3.0 and 2.8, respectively.The reconstruction of the development model will further improve the CAMM and promote the development of crop growth simulation theory.
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Key words:
- development model;
- adaptability;
- sugarcane;
- development period;
- crop growth model
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图 1 新植蔗全样本发育实测数据对不同发育模式的回代模拟检验
Fig. 1 Test of different development models based on the whole sample development data of new planted sugarcane
图 2 发育模式参数值与站点所处纬度相关关系
Fig. 2 Relationship between parameters of development model and latitude of the station
图 3 发育模式对新植蔗回代模拟与实测值比较
Fig. 3 Measurements and simulations of development models based on back training for new planted sugarcane
图 4 发育模式对新植蔗独立样本模拟值与实测值比较
Fig. 4 Measurements and simulations of development models based on independent samples for new planted sugarcane
表 1 研究数据概况
Table 1 Overview of research data
作物 站点 所在省份 位置 海拔/m 数据时段 新植蔗 乌拉特前旗 蒙 40.7°N，108.7°E 1022.0 1997—2002年 新植蔗 临河 蒙 40.8°N，107.4°E 1040.8 1992—2002年 新植蔗 平罗 宁 38.9°N，106.6°E 1099.9 1993—1999年 新植蔗 赤峰 蒙 42.3°N，119.0°E 568.0 1992—2002年 新植蔗 耿马 云 23.6°N，99.4°E 1105.4 1993—2020年 新植蔗 元江 云 23.4°N，102.0°E 397.6 1994—2020年 新植蔗 泰和 赣 26.8°N，114.9°E 61.8 1993—2003年 新植蔗 广丰 赣 28.4°N，118.2°E 96.1 1994—2009年 新植蔗 仙游 闽 25.4°N，118.7°E 77.0 1993—1997年 新植蔗 宜山 桂 24.5°N，108.7°E 149.8 2003—2009年 新植蔗 沙塘 桂 24.5°N，109.4°E 99.1 2003—2010年 新植蔗 蒙山 桂 24.2°N，110.5°E 147.0 1980—1994年 新植蔗 平果 桂 23.3°N，107.6°E 112.6 1990—2009年 新植蔗 来宾 桂 23.8°N，109.2°E 85.2 2003—2009年 新植蔗 贵县 桂 23.1°N，109.6°E 56.0 1989—2009年 新植蔗 扶绥 桂 22.6°N，107.9°E 88.9 2003—2012年 新植蔗 徐闻 粤 20.3°N，110.2°E 69.0 1992—2001年 宿根蔗 米易 川 26.9°N，102.1°E 1105.8 1992—1998年 宿根蔗 德宏州 云 24.4°N，98.6°E 914.7 1993—2009年 宿根蔗 耿马 云 23.6°N，99.4°E 1105.4 2012—2020年 宿根蔗 蒙自 云 23.4°N，103.4°E 1301.7 2010—2016年 宿根蔗 吉安 赣 27.1°N，115.0°E 78.0 2000—2009年 宿根蔗 泰和 赣 26.8°N，114.9°E 61.8 1992—2009年 宿根蔗 仙游 闽 25.4°N，118.7°E 77.0 1998—2009年 宿根蔗 宜山 桂 24.5°N，108.7°E 149.8 2002—2009年 宿根蔗 沙塘 桂 24.5°N，109.4°E 99.1 2002—2012年 宿根蔗 蒙山 桂 24.2°N，110.5°E 147.0 2002—2009年 宿根蔗 漳浦 闽 24.1°N，117.6°E 51.1 2002—2009年 宿根蔗 平果 桂 23.3°N，107.6°E 112.6 2002—2009年 宿根蔗 贵县 桂 23.1°N，109.6°E 56.0 1996—2009年 
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表 2 发育模式在部分站点针对新植蔗的参数率定值
Table 2 Calibrated parameter of development models at some sites for new planted sugarcane
站名 纬度 发育模式 THU CHU CHUa CHUd/105 TAd/105 乌拉特前旗 40.7°N 1825.6 2149.1 97.4 4.34 6.34 临河 40.8°N 1741.3 2061.7 94.8 4.04 5.88 平罗 38.9°N 1737.1 2143.9 108.3 4.38 6.43 赤峰 42.3°N 1662.9 2043.3 99.7 4.22 6.13 耿马 23.6°N 3034.5 3723.5 175.2 9.27 13.0 元江 23.4°N 4569.2 4968.3 178.1 9.93 20.1 泰和 26.8°N 3415.9 3898.3 157.6 8.29 11.9 广丰 28.4°N 3190.2 3633.9 145.1 7.30 10.5 仙游 25.4°N 3804.3 4319.8 175.5 9.04 12.8 宜山 24.5°N 3584.3 3946.0 150.9 7.82 11.2 沙塘 24.5°N 3894.0 4366.9 175.4 8.90 12.8 蒙山 24.2°N 3584.3 4049.9 166.8 8.63 12.4 平果 23.3°N 4114.0 4560.1 176.2 9.04 12.9 来宾 23.8°N 3799.4 4149.1 155.4 8.34 11.9 贵县 23.1°N 3918.3 4315.0 164.3 8.60 12.3 扶绥 22.6°N 4242.6 4687.0 179.4 10.4 15.0 徐闻 20.3°N 4888.2 5446.8 207.7 12.9 18.0
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表 3 发育模式对新植蔗回代模拟误差
Table 3 Back training simulation error of development model for new planted sugarcane
发育阶段 模式 相关系数 平均偏差/d 平均误差/d 平均相对误差/d 均方根误差/d 样本量 播种-出苗 THU 0.82 1.1 6.2 19.6 8.9 66 CHU 0.83 0.8 6.0 18.7 8.6 66 CHUa 0.82 1.3 6.3 19.2 8.9 66 CHUd 0.83 1.6 6.2 20.5 9.1 66 TAd 0.83 1.4 6.1 20.0 8.9 66 RAM 0.84 -1.5 5.4 15.1 8.7 66 出苗-茎伸长 THU 0.90 0.5 9.5 12.2 14.2 137 CHU 0.88 0.5 10.3 13.1 14.9 137 CHUa 0.84 0.6 12.7 16.1 17.3 137 CHUd 0.91 0.9 8.9 11.2 13.5 137 TAd 0.90 0.9 8.9 11.2 13.6 137 RAM 0.86 -0.4 8.3 12.2 16.5 137 茎伸长-成熟 THU 0.33 8.4 25.2 20.2 43.0 120 CHU 0.73 1.6 15.5 11.4 23.0 120 CHUa 0.86 0.1 12.0 8.3 16.5 120 CHUd 0.86 0.3 11.8 8.5 16.6 120 TAd 0.76 4.9 14.9 10.3 23.9 120 RAM 0.55 -1.4 16.2 11.9 36.1 120
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表 4 发育模式对新植蔗独立样本模拟误差
Table 4 Development model simulation errors based on independent samples for new planted sugarcane
发育阶段 模式 相关系数 平均偏差/d 平均误差/d 平均相对误差/d 均方根误差/d 样本量 播种-出苗 THU 0.83 2.6 6.6 31.5 9.1 24 CHU 0.82 2.5 6.5 31.2 9.2 24 CHUa 0.81 3.3 6.6 32.2 9.6 24 CHUd 0.81 3.0 6.9 31.7 10.1 24 TAd 0.81 3.0 6.9 32.0 9.9 24 RAM 0.81 1.4 6.2 29.1 9.1 24 出苗-茎伸长 THU 0.92 0.9 9.1 11.8 12.4 52 CHU 0.92 1.0 9.6 12.3 12.7 52 CHUa 0.87 1.5 11.5 14.6 15.3 52 CHUd 0.93 3.6 8.9 11.8 12.9 52 TAd 0.92 3.1 8.9 11.8 12.9 52 RAM 0.73 2.7 13.0 20.3 23.2 52 茎伸长-成熟 THU 0.58 5.0 22.9 15.1 35.0 46 CHU 0.67 5.2 18.2 12.2 27.5 46 CHUa 0.85 6.3 12.6 8.8 17.3 46 CHUd 0.86 6.2 12.4 8.5 17.2 46 TAd 0.71 14.0 19.8 13.7 32.8 46 RAM 0.21 12.2 29.1 24.0 70.1 46
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表 5 发育模式在不同检验中的模拟能力
Table 5 Simulation ability of development models in different tests
发育阶段 模式 新植蔗 宿根蔗 SCV 全样本 参数率定 独立样本 全样本 参数率定 独立样本 播种-出苗 THU 2 4 6 4.0 CHU 5 6 4 5.0 CHUa 1 3 3 2.3 CHUd 3 1 1 1.7 TAd 4 2 2 2.7 RAM 6 5 5 5.3 出苗/发株-茎伸长 THU 3 4 6 3 3 4 3.8 CHU 2 3 5 2 2 3 2.8 CHUa 1 1 2 1 1 1 1.2 CHUd 5 6 4 4 5 6 5.0 TAd 4 5 3 5 4 5 4.3 RAM 6 2 1 6 6 2 3.8 茎伸长-成熟 THU 1 1 2 2 1 1 1.3 CHU 2 4 4 3 2 2 2.8 CHUa 5 6 5 6 5 4 5.2 CHUd 6 5 6 4 3 5 4.8 TAd 4 3 3 5 4 6 4.2 RAM 3 2 1 1 6 3 2.7
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