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Hazard Assessment of Peanut Drought and Flood Disasters in Huang-Huai-Hai Region
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摘要: 利用1960—2019年黄淮海地区186个气象站逐日气象数据，结合春花生发育期数据，采用标准化降水作物需水指数将旱涝灾害分为7个等级，分析春花生旱涝灾害的时空分布特征；并以旱涝灾害发生的强度和频率构建春花生旱涝灾害危险性指数，开展黄淮海地区春花生旱涝灾害危险性评价。结果表明：黄河流域西北部和中部、淮河流域东北部以及海河流域北部是干旱灾害高发区；涝害高发区主要集中在黄河流域的大部分地区、淮河流域北部和南部地区以及海河流域东部，以中度涝害为主。春花生干旱灾害高危险性地区零散分布，主要集中在黄河流域西北部；而涝害中、高危险性地区多分布于黄河流域。Abstract: Peanut is an important kind of food, oil plants and cash crops which promotes the sustainable development in the modern agricultural economy. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of drought disaster and waterlogging disaster in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region has remarkably increased, which poses a huge impact on the production of spring peanut. Therefore, analyzing and making hazard assessment of drought disaster and waterlogging disaster during the growth period of spring peanut has a great significance for preventing drought disaster and waterlogging disaster, minimizing the damage, and taking disaster insurance in this region. Based on the daily meteorological data of 186 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019 and combined with the growth data of spring peanut, the hazard assessment of drought disaster and waterlogging disaster is divided into 7 grades by using the standardized precipitation requirement index(ISPR), and the spatial and temporary distribution characteristics of drought disaster and waterlogging disaster in Huang-Huai-Hai Region are analyzed. Based on the probability and intensity of drought disaster and waterlogging disaster, hazard index is constructed to evaluate the hazard during the growth period of spring peanut. High incidence of drought disaster is found in the northwestern and central part of the Yellow River Basin, the northeastern part of the Huaihe River Basin and the northern part of the Haihe River Basin. While the areas with high incidence of waterlogging disaster are mainly concentrated in most areas of the Yellow River Basin, the northern, southern part of the Huaihe River Basin and eastern part of the Haihe River Basin, and mainly with moderate waterlogging disaster. The areas with high hazard of drought disaster during the growth period of spring peanut are scattered, mainly concentrated in the northwest of the Yellow River Basin. While the areas with medium and high hazard of waterlogging disaster during the growth period of spring peanut are mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin. In the northern and central planting areas of the Yellow River Basin, the phenomenon of drought disaster and waterlogging disaster abrupt alternation often occurs. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the hazard of drought disaster and waterlogging disaster abrupt alternation, regulate crop exposure in planting areas, reduce the vulnerability of crop, improve the overall disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, and promote management level in planting areas. The above research results can provide a reference for the drought disaster and waterlogging disaster prevention and loss reduction during the growth period of spring peanut and the construction of security production guarantee method system in Huang-Huai-Hai Region.
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图 2 1960—2019年黄淮海地区春花生不同发育阶段干旱发生频率
Fig. 2 The frequency of drought disasters in different growth stages of spring peanut in Huang-Huai-Hai Region from 1960 to 2019
图 3 1960—2019年黄淮海地区春花生生长季干旱发生频率
Fig. 3 The frequency of drought disasters during growing season of spring peanut in Huang-Huai-Hai Region from 1960 to 2019
图 4 1960—2019年黄淮海地区春花生不同发育阶段涝害发生频率
Fig. 4 The frequency of waterlogging in different growth stages of spring peanut in Huang-Huai-Hai Region from 1960 to 2019
图 5 1960—2019年黄淮海地区春花生生长季涝害发生频率
Fig. 5 The frequency of waterlogging during growing season of spring peanut in Huang-Huai-Hai Region from 1960 to 2019
图 6 1960—2019年黄淮海地区春花生不同发育阶段和生长季干旱危险性分布
Fig. 6 Distribution of drought risk in different growth stages and growing season of spring peanut in Huang-Huai-Hai Region from 1960 to 2019
图 7 1960—2019年黄淮海地区春花生不同发育阶段和生长季涝害危险性分布
Fig. 7 Risk distribution of waterlogging in different growth stages and growing season of spring peanut in Huang-Huai-Hai Region from 1960 to 2019
表 1 黄淮海地区春花生发育期划分
Table 1 Division of spring peanut growing season in Huang-Huai-Hai Region
发育期 时间 出苗期 4月中旬—4月下旬 幼苗期 5月上旬—5月下旬 花针期 6月上旬—6月下旬 结荚期 7月上旬—8月中旬 饱果期 8月下旬—9月下旬 
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表 2 春花生作物系数
Table 2 Spring peanut crop coefficient
春花生 开始时间 结束时间 作物系数 发育前期 04-15 05-31 0.50 发育中期 06-01 06-30 1.15 发育后期 07-01 09-30 0.60
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表 3 基于标准化降水作物需水指数(ISPR)的旱涝等级划分
Table 3 Drought and flood grade based on standardized precipitation requirement index(ISPR)
灾害等级 ISPR取值范围 重涝 1.5<ISPR≤2.0 中涝 1.0<ISPR≤1.5 轻涝 0.5<ISPR≤1.0 无旱 -0.5<ISPR≤0.5 轻旱 -1.0<ISPR≤-0.5 中旱 -1.5<ISPR≤-1.0 重旱 ISPR≤-1.5
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表 4 春花生干旱灾损系数
Table 4 The damage coefficients of drought disaster for spring peanut
发育阶段 干旱等级 轻旱 中旱 重旱 发育前期 0.01 0.03 0.06 发育中期 0.03 0.09 0.18 发育后期 0.06 0.18 0.36
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表 5 春花生涝害灾损系数
Table 5 The damage coefficients of waterlogging for spring peanut
发育阶段 涝害等级 轻涝 中涝 重涝 发育前期 0.02 0.06 0.12 发育中期 0.03 0.09 0.18 发育后期 0.05 0.15 0.30
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