西北太平洋历史台风风场重建模型参数试验

孔莉莎; 张秀芝

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20220105

西北太平洋历史台风风场重建模型参数试验

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220105

国家气候中心, 北京 100081

资助项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 51761135012

国家重点研发计划 2020YFA0608203

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-05-26
- 修回日期: 2021-09-18
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-19

Sensitive Experiments on Reconstruction Model of Historical Typhoon Wind Field in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

National Climate Center, Beijing 100081

摘要

摘要: 基于Yan Meng风场模型, 使用中国近海浮标观测资料, 对影响风场模拟的台风最大风速半径R_max、压力分布常数B、粗糙度z₀ 3个参数进行估算试验, 结果表明: 台风中心最大风速V_max和台风所处纬度的组合方案对估算R_max更合理; 海面(浮标站)在z₀=0.005 m, B=1.0时风速模拟效果较好。选取登陆闽北浙江、北上东海、西进南海、穿台湾岛进入台湾海峡的共19个台风过程进行模拟效果检验发现: 当中央气象台发布的V_max < 40 m·s^-1时, B=1.0, z₀=0.005 m模拟的V_max接近发布的V_max, 非最强风速区的模拟风速与浮标站观测风速拟合较好, 发布的V_max≥40 m·s^-1时, B=1.4, z₀=0.005 m模拟的V_max接近发布的V_max, 非最强风速区的模拟风速在B=1.0, z₀=0.005 m时更合理。基于该风场模型和参数估算方案, 可重建西北太平洋历史台风风场。
- 台风;
- 风场模型;
- 参数试验;
- 模拟验证
Abstract: In order to reconstruct the historical typhoon wind field in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and calculate the maximum wind speed in 50 years of the Northwest Pacific Ocean, Yan Meng wind field model is used to simulate the wind field. There are 3 important parameters for wind field simulation in Yan Meng wind field model: The radius of maximum wind, pressure distribution constant B, and roughness z₀. Therefore, it is necessary to test and reasonably optimize the value of the three parameters by measured data of the buoy stations during the typhoon in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.First, based on the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) dataset, the relationship between the radius of maximum wind and its impact factors is discussed and four combinations scheme of calculating the radius of maximum wind are proposed, and then the best combination scheme is selected through the measured data. Second, the values of B and z₀ are estimated with the observed wind speed of buoy stations during different typhoons. Finally, the simulation effect of the typhoon wind field at sea is evaluated with 19 typhoon processes, and the applicability of the model and estimation scheme of three parameters are verified.The results show that it is more reasonable to find the radius of maximum wind by combination scheme of V_max (the maximum wind speed of typhoon center) and the latitude of typhoon. In the parameter value test, the wind speed simulation effect of sea surface (buoy stations) is better given z₀ being 0.005 m and B being 1.0, according to the absolute deviation between the simulated and the measured maximum wind speed at 10 buoy stations during 6 typhoons. Except for the parameter test, 19 other typhoon processes landing in northern Fujian and Zhejiang, heading north to the East China Sea, moving west to the South China Sea, and crossing Taiwan Island into the Taiwan Strait are selected to test the simulation effect, which illustrates that when the V_max published by Central Meteorological Observatory is below 40 m·s^-1, the simulated V_max is close to the published V_max if B is equal to 1.0 and z₀ is equal to 0.005 m, and the simulated wind speed in the non-maximum wind speed region is well fitted with the observed wind speed of the buoy stations. In addition, When V_max published is greater than or equal to 40 m·s^-1, the simulated V_max is close to the published V_max if B is equal to 1.4 and z₀ is equal to 0.005 m, and the simulated wind speed of non-maximum wind speed region is more reasonable when B is equal to 1.0 and z₀ is equal to 0.005 m.
- typhoon;
- wind field model;
- sensitive experiments;
- simulation verification

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图 1 浮标站分布

Fig. 1 Distribution of buoy stations

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图 2 2001—2018年西北太平洋台风参数与R_max关系

(蓝色上、下边分别代表 75%和25%分位数(设为U和D)，橙色横线为中位数，红色三角为95%分位数；黑色上、下横线为上、下限，分别为U+1.5(U-D)和D-1.5(U-D), 黑色圆圈表示异常值)

Fig. 2 Relationship between factors and R_max in the Northwest Pacific from 2001 to 2018

(the blue top and bottom lines represent the 75th and 25th percentiles(set as U and D), respectively, the orange horizontal line represents the median, and the red triangle represents the 95th percentile, the black upper and lower horizontal lines are the upper and lower limits of data, calculated by U+1.5(U-D) and D-1.5(U-D)), the black circles represent outliers)

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图 3 2018年7月10—11日台风玛莉亚(1808)影响期间两个浮标站模拟风速与观测风速对比

Fig. 3 Comparison of simulated and observed wind speed at two buoy stations during the influence period of Typhoon Maria(1808) on 10-11 Jul 2018

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图 4 2017年8月22—23日台风天鸽(1713)影响期间12号浮标站的风速和V_max

Fig. 4 The wind speed of buoy station 12 and V_max during the influence period of Typhoon Hato(1713) on 22-23 Aug 2017

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图 5 V_max模拟值与发布值对比

Fig. 5 Comparison of simulated and published values of maximum wind speed

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图 6 2018年7月5-11日台风玛莉亚(1808)不同时刻模拟风场

(蓝、绿、黄、白、红色三角分别代表 3号、4号、6号、7号和9号浮标站)

Fig. 6 Simulation diagram of wind field at different times of Typhoon Maria(1808) on 5-11 Jul 2018

(blue, green, yellow, white and red triangles represent buoy station 3, 4, 6, 7 and 9, respectively)

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表 1 各因子等级

Table 1 Grade of factors

等级	V_max/(m·s^-1)	中心气压/hPa	纬度	台风发生月份	海温/℃
1	(12, 17]	(875, 950]	(3°N, 20°N]	1，2，3，12	(15, 20]
2	(17, 25]	(950, 970]	(20°N, 25°N]	4，5，11	(20, 27]
3	(25, 30]	(970, 1000]	(25°N, 30°N]	6—10	(27, 32)
4	(30, 40]	(1000, 1015)	(30°N, 50°N)
5	(40, 90)

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表 2 方案1和方案2对应的R_max (单位：km)

Table 2 R_max based on Scheme 1 and Scheme 2 (unit: km)

中心气压/hPa	台风发生月份			纬度
中心气压/hPa	1，2，3，12	4，5，11	6—10	(3°N, 20°N]	(20°N, 25°N]	(25°N, 30°N]	(30°N, 50°N)
(875, 950]	27	29	32	29	32	37	35
(950, 970]	32	34	38	34	36	44	38
(970, 1000]	65	61	68	65	70	67	71
(1000, 1015)	72	80	93	87	86	83	69

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表 3 方案3和方案4对应的R_max (单位：km)

Table 3 R_max based on Scheme 3 and Scheme 4 (unit: km)

V_max/(m·s^-1)	台风发生月份			纬度
V_max/(m·s^-1)	1，2，3，12	4，5，11	6—10	(3°N, 20°N]	(20°N, 25°N]	(25°N, 30°N]	(30°N, 50°N)
(12, 17]	72	78	82	79	85	80	82
(17, 25]	66	62	70	65	69	74	78
(25, 30]	41	43	53	45	53	57	58
(30, 40]	37	36	41	37	41	43	42
(40, 90)	27	30	33	29	32	41	36

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表 4 浮标站v′

Table 4 v′ of buoy stations

台风	站号标识	z₀/m	v′/(m·s^-1)
台风	站号标识	z₀/m	B=1.0	B=1.2	B=1.4	B=1.6
天鸽(1713)	12号	0.020		3.03	5.08
		0.010		4.10
		0.005	2.54^*	4.97
		0.001	3.88
天鸽(1713)	13号	0.020		5.45	7.90	10.16
		0.010	4.17^*	7.05	9.65
		0.005	5.38	8.41
		0.001	7.46	10.72
帕卡(1714)	13号	0.020	1.78^*	2.95	3.83
		0.010	2.78	4.04
		0.005	3.63	4.97
		0.001	5.08	6.57
玛莉亚(1808)	5号	0.020		3.2	2.49	2.25
		0.010		1.65	0.82	0.49
		0.005	1.70	0.27^*	0.60	0.99
		0.001	0.57	2.19	3.23
玛莉亚(1808)	8号	0.020		5.01	7.66	10.08
		0.010		6.52	9.32	11.88
		0.005	4.55^*	7.78	10.72	13.41
		0.001	6.47	9.95	13.11
玛莉亚(1808)	10号	0.020		2.72	2.49	2.75
		0.010		1.53	1.25	1.45
		0.005	1.41	0.48	0.15^*	0.34
		0.001	0.31	1.39	1.84
米娜(1918)	4号	0.020	6.10	4.87	4.07	3.71
		0.010	5.07	3.74	2.89	2.46
		0.005	4.19	2.76	1.85
		0.001	2.68	1.08^*
巴威(2008)	1号	0.020		1.14	1.22	1.76
		0.010		0.07^*	0.12	0.65
		0.005	0.32	0.86	0.84
		0.001	1.85	2.52	2.58
巴威(2008)	2号	0.020		1.90	0.12^*	1.31
		0.010		0.47	1.41	2.95
		0.005	1.63	0.76	2.73	4.38
		0.001	0.24	2.85	5.06
美莎克(2009)	2号	0.020			5.95	6.31
		0.010		4.75	4.56	4.90
		0.005		3.59	3.38	3.69
		0.001	2.46	1.49	1.17^*
注：*表示浮标站v′同时满足规则1和规则2。

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表 5 9种B和z₀取值组合次数及v′平均值

Table 5 The frequency of nine combinations of values of B and z₀ and the average value of v′

B和z₀取值组合	次数	v′平均值/(m·s^-1)
B=1.0，z₀=0.005 m	2	2.81
B=1.4，z₀=0.001 m	1	4.50
B=1.4，z₀=0.005 m	1	2.90
B=1.4，z₀=0.020 m	1	4.08
B=1.0，z₀=0.010 m	1	4.01
B=1.0，z₀=0.020 m	1	3.94
B=1.2，z₀=0.005 m	1	3.49
B=1.2，z₀=0.001 m	1	4.31
B=1.2，z₀=0.010 m	1	3.39

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表 6 2018年7月10日23:00—11日09:00台风玛莉亚(1808)影响期间参数取值试验之外的浮标站风速观测值及模拟值

Table 6 Observed and simulated wind speed of buoy stations test during the influence period of Typhoon Maria(1808) from 2300 BT 10 Jul 2018 to 0900 BT 11 Jul 2018

时间	浮标站站号标识	观测风速/(m·s^-1)	模拟风速/(m·s^-1)
2018-07-10T23:00	3号	20.7	18.3
	4号	16.2	14.7
	6号	19.5	17.0
	7号	29.0	26.9
	9号	15.7	14.6
2018-07-11T00:00	3号	22.3	20.3
	4号	17.4	16.3
	6号	19.9	19.1
	7号	32.4	32.0
	9号	12.5	15.9
2018-07-11T01:00	3号	22.9	21.9
	4号	17.9	18.3
	6号	23.6	22.3
	7号	27.6	38.5
	9号	17.4	18.0
2018-07-11T02:00	3号	20.6	24.4
	4号	19.1	21.3
	6号	30.6	27.0
	7号	26.3	37.0
	9号	19.2	20.1
2018-07-11T03:00	3号	25.4	25.5
	4号	20.9	24.7
	6号	32.7	33.7
	7号	36.7	33.7
	9号	24.1	22.2
2018-07-11T04:00	3号	24.2	23.1
	4号	27.8	26.2
	6号	27.5	39.8
	7号	34.9	27.0
	9号	27.1	26.7
2018-07-11T05:00	3号	21.8	20.6
	4号	26.7	25.5
	6号	30.0	38.5
	7号	26.6	22.9
	9号	28.8	30.3
2018-07-11T06:00	3号	19.2	19.5
	4号	23.1	24.9
	6号	35.7	35.3
	7号	20.6	21.3
	9号	30.1	31.2
2018-07-11T07:00	3号	18.9	18.5
	4号	21.8	24.0
	6号	29.5	32.1
	7号	18.8	19.8
	9号	30.7	31.3
2018-07-11T08:00	3号	16.1	17.4
	4号	15.5	23.3
	6号	22.9	28.0
	7号	18.2	17.8
	9号	25.5	28.3
2018-07-11T09:00	3号	16.4	13.9
	4号	15.4	18.9
	6号	19.3	21.3
	7号		14.0
	9号	21.9	22.7

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西北太平洋历史台风风场重建模型参数试验

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220105

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Sensitive Experiments on Reconstruction Model of Historical Typhoon Wind Field in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

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西北太平洋历史台风风场重建模型参数试验

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220105

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Sensitive Experiments on Reconstruction Model of Historical Typhoon Wind Field in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

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