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Indicator Construction and Risk Assessment of Grape Waterlogging in the Bohai Rim
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摘要: 以中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区为研究对象, 利用1980—2019年研究区域内303个气象站逐日气象资料、葡萄发育期资料和葡萄涝渍灾情资料, 基于相对湿润度方法构建葡萄逐日涝渍指数M5i, 以历史灾情反演和灾变过程解析为主线, 采用正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t分布区间估计等方法, 构建适用于中国环渤海地区葡萄主产区的葡萄涝渍灾害等级指标体系, 利用信息扩散理论方法, 计算区域内各站点的葡萄涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明: 构建的葡萄涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况, 指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性; 葡萄同一发育阶段的涝渍灾害发生范围随灾害等级的加大而缩小, 不同发育阶段重度涝渍灾害发生范围随着发育进程的推进逐渐增大; 葡萄萌芽-新梢生长期和开花坐果期发生涝渍灾害的风险相对较低, 果实膨大期和着色成熟期为葡萄涝渍灾害发生的高风险时期; 葡萄涝渍灾害高风险区域主要位于山东东南部、辽宁东南部、河北东北部。Abstract: The viticulture area around the Bohai Bay is the largest grape producing area in China. Waterlogging disaster is a major agricultural meteorological disaster in China, which seriously threatens grape production. Waterlogging indexes are utilized on field crops widely, but most of them can only be evaluated after the end of the growing season, which lacks the timeliness of monitoring and evaluating the process of waterlogging disasters. Taking the main grape producing areas in the Bohai Rim of China as the research object, the waterlogging grade index is constructed based on the daily meteorological data, grape growth stage data and grape waterlogging historical disaster data from 303 meteorological stations in the study area from 1980 to 2019. In the process of index construction, the influence of previous water surplus and deficit status on the current waterlogging process is fully considered, and the climate adaptability of crops in a certain place is considered. The daily waterlogging index of grapes is constructed by referring to the relative humidity index method of crops. Taking historical disaster inversion and disaster process analysis as the main line, Lilliefors test of normal distribution and t-distribution interval estimation method are used to construct the grape waterlogging disaster grade index system suitable for the main grape producing areas around the Bohai Bay, starting from the duration and intensity of waterlogging disaster. Based on the classification index of grape waterlogging disasters constructed above, the frequency of waterlogging disasters at each site in the Bohai Rim from 1980 to 2019 is counted, and the probability of disasters at each site is obtained by using information diffusion theory. Considering the probability and intensity of waterlogging disasters of each grade, the risk index of grape waterlogging in each station in the region is calculated. The results show that the occurrence range of waterlogging disaster in the same growth period of grape decreases with the increase of the disaster level, while the occurrence range of severe waterlogging disaster in different growth periods gradually increases with the advancement of development process. The risk of grape waterlogging is relatively low during the period of bud-shoot growth and flowering and fruit-setting, while the high-risk period of grape waterlogging is the period of fruit expansion and coloring and maturity. The high-risk areas of grape waterlogging disaster are mainly located in the southeast of Shandong Province, the southeast of Liaoning Province and the northeast of Hebei Province.
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Key words:
- the Bohai Rim;
- grape;
- waterlogging disaster;
- grade index;
- risk assessment
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图 2 葡萄不同M5i阈值下灾害样本被判识率
Fig. 2 Identification rate of grape disaster samples under different M5i threshold
图 3 葡萄不同等级涝渍灾害样本量占总样本量的百分比(M5i≥3)
Fig. 3 The samples percentage of grape waterlogging disasters of different grades in the total samples (M5i≥3)
图 4 葡萄不同发育阶段不同等级涝渍发生概率站次比
Fig. 4 Station ratio of grape waterlogging disaster probability at different grades during different growth stages
图 5 葡萄涝渍致灾风险指数空间分布
Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of grape waterlogging disaster risk index
表 1 葡萄发育阶段不同持续日数过程涝渍指数M5i逐日累加值序列平均值90%置信区间
Table 1 90% confidence interval of the mean value of the cumulative M5i in the process of different duration during grape growth stages
发育阶段 90%置信区间 3~4 d 5~6 d 7 d及以上 萌芽-新梢生长期 12.8~32.0 27.6~74.3 41.6~98.8 开花坐果期 12.9~32.4 25.5~68.9 42.6~116.9 果实膨大期 13.2~33.7 25.9~71.7 44.0~128.5 着色成熟期 13.5~36.1 28.7~85.9 45.8~153.7 
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表 2 葡萄不同发育阶段涝渍灾害等级指标
Table 2 The grape waterlogging disaster level indicators during different growth stages
发育阶段 M5i≥3持续日数/d M5i逐日累加值 轻度涝渍 中度涝渍 重度涝渍 萌芽-新梢生长期 3~4 [13, 32] 大于32 5~6 [13, 28) [28, 74] 大于74 不小于7 [28, 42] 大于42 开花坐果期 3~4 [13, 32] 大于32 5~6 [13, 26) [26, 69] 大于69 不小于7 [26, 43] 大于43 果实膨大期 3~4 [13, 34] 大于34 5~6 [13, 26) [26, 72] 大于72 不小于7 [26, 44] 大于44 着色成熟期 3~4 [14, 36] 大于36 5~6 [14, 29) [29, 86] 大于86 不小于7 [29, 46] 大于46
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表 3 葡萄涝渍灾害指标验证
Table 3 Verification of grape waterlogging disaster indicators
发生时间 发生地点 发育阶段 灾情描述 M5i≥3持续日数/d M5i≥3逐日累加值 指标计算等级 符合程度 2012-04-25 庄河 萌芽-新梢生长期 绝收 9 127 重 完全符合 1991-06-10 北京 开花坐果期 受渍，部分绝收 5 43 中 完全符合 2011-06-26 威海 开花坐果期 大量落果，减产 8 97 重 完全符合 1981-07-25 熊岳 果实膨大期 严重受渍 4 40 中 完全符合 1985-07-28 密云 果实膨大期 冲走果树 4 24 轻 不符合 1985-07-20 海城 果实膨大期 大量减产 8 103 重 完全符合 1990-07-15 塘沽 果实膨大期 部分受灾 3 17 轻 完全符合 1993-07-12 章丘 果实膨大期 部分无收 6 46 中 完全符合 1994-07-12 朝阳 果实膨大期 大面积减产 7 87 重 完全符合 2004-07-16 定陶 果实膨大期 成灾 5 39 中 完全符合 2008-07-18 威海 果实膨大期 受涝严重，绝收 10 98 重 完全符合 2008-07-18 青岛 果实膨大期 绝收 10 127 重 完全符合 2012-07-25 北京 果实膨大期 部分受灾 4 19 轻 完全符合 1988-08-08 北京 着色成熟期 严重受渍 5 39 中 完全符合 1992-08-31 威海 着色成熟期 成灾 5 70 中 完全符合 1992-09-01 大连 着色成熟期 大量减产 5 132 重 完全符合 1994-08-05 昌黎 着色成熟期 冲毁，绝收 5 87 重 完全符合 1994-08-05 青龙 着色成熟期 绝收 6 72 中 基本符合 1996-08-04 石家庄 着色成熟期 大量减产 9 219 重 完全符合 1997-08-01 承德 着色成熟期 大面积绝收 5 43 中 基本符合 1997-08-18 日照 着色成熟期 部分绝收 5 65 中 完全符合 1997-08-18 莒县 着色成熟期 绝收 6 112 重 完全符合 1997-08-18 威海 着色成熟期 大面积减产 6 175 重 完全符合 2000-08-28 青岛 着色成熟期 部分绝收 5 42 中 完全符合 2008-08-01 锦州 着色成熟期 受灾 4 27 轻 完全符合 2011-08-08 栖霞 着色成熟期 严重落果 3 20 轻 不符合
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