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Refined Assessment of Wind Environment over Winter Olympic Competition Zone Based on Large Eddy Simulation
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摘要: 风是北京冬奥会场外赛事考虑的首要气象因素, 精细评估竞赛场地核心区域风环境对赛道施工建设、遴选防风方案及赛事安排非常必要。以北京冬奥会延庆赛区为中心, 将2009—2021年冬奥赛事月份(2—3月)天气环流场进行客观天气环流分型(分为93组), 采用北京城市气象研究院睿图-大涡模式系统对各组的典型个例开展37 m×37 m分辨率风场模拟。利用赛道周边12个自动气象站数据检验结果显示: 2 m温度、10 m风速和风向平均偏差分别为0.45℃, 1.51 m·s-1, 11.23°, 预报技巧较高。基于分型模拟数据获得赛场平均风、极大风分布及大风风险概率, 高山滑雪赛场赛道起点平均风速为15 m·s-1, 超出影响决策点概率为60%, 风险较大; 而赛道中、后段风险较小, 超过影响决策风速概率小于2%。Abstract: The near-surface wind field over complex terrain is highly non-uniform due to the influence of topographical fluctuations. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to carry out high-density observational experiments and refined assessment of wind environment in these areas. In this case, high-resolution wind field data from numerical simulations is essential for the evaluation and analysis of near-surface wind environment. A refined wind environment assessment is carried out for Xiaohaituo alpine skiing field, Yanqing competition zone of Beijing Winter Olympic Games. Firstly, the weather patterns over the alpine skiing field during the winter competition periods from 2009 to 2021 (every February and March) are divided into 5 main types according to the Lamb-Jenkinson (L-J) atmospheric circulation classification scheme, and further classified into 93 secondary circulation types according to the wind directions and speed at 700 hPa. Secondly, the coupled model system of mesoscale meteorology and large eddy simulation (RMAPS-LES) developed by Beijing Institute of Urban Meteorology is used to simulate the wind field at a horizontal resolution of 37 m for typical cases under 93 weather patterns. The comparison between the simulation results and observations at 11 automatic weather stations shows that the model simulation performs reasonably well. The results show that the average deviation of 2 m temperature is less than 2℃, which perfectly meets the accuracy requirements of weather forecast service demand. Although 10 m wind speed is slightly overestimated for the whole typical cases of different weather patterns, the average deviation is within 3 m·s-1, and the average deviation of 10 m wind direction simulation is 10.43°-12.36°, which shows a good prediction skill. Finally, based on the wind field simulation results of different weather patterns, a ten-year winter wind environment assessment is carried out to provide detailed spatial distribution characteristics of the wind field, risk ranges, locations of gale, and the risk probability of exceeding the wind speed thresholds of the sport events, so as to provide technical supports for the organization, time arrangement, track design and wind hazard protection of 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games. The method provides an effective way for wind energy assessment and forecast over complex terrain, as well as meteorological services for wind-sensitive activities, such as outdoor mega-events over complex terrain, small-scale environmental design for large-scale architectural complex over mountain terrain, mountain fire disaster prevention and mitigation, mountain pollution forecasting and nuclear proliferation assessment.
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图 1 延庆赛区睿图-大涡模拟区域嵌套设置和区域地形
(a)d01~d04，(b)d04 (⊙和☆为自动气象站)
Fig. 1 Computational domain for RMAPS-LES of Yanqing competition zone with the terrain elevation and state boundaries
(a)d01-d04, (b)d04 (⊙ and ☆ denote automatic weather stations)
图 2 L-J分型区域及计算差分格点(黑色圆点) 分布
(红色圆点表示赛场中心点)
Fig. 2 Domain and 16 grid points (black dots) for L-J circulation type classification
(the red dot denotes the center of competition zone)
图 3 2009—2021年2—3月延庆赛区大类环流型分布
(图中百分数表示占比)
Fig. 3 Main circulation types from Feb to Mar during 2009-2021 of Yanqing competition zone
(the percentage denotes the proportion)
图 4 2009—2021年2—3月延庆赛区中心点700 hPa风玫瑰图
Fig. 4 Wind rose of 700 hPa at the center of Yanqing competition zone from Feb to Mar during 2009-2021
图 5 自动气象站2 m温度、10 m风速和风向检验结果
(点为平均偏差，须为标准差)
(a)31种小类环流型2 m温度检验结果，(b)不同风速组2 m温度检验结果，(c)31种小类环流型10 m风速检验结果，(d)不同风速组10 m风速检验结果，(e)31种小类环流型10 m风向检验结果，(d)不同风速组10 m风向检验结果Fig. 5 Errors of 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed, direction at automatic weather stations
(the marker denotes the median error, the whisker denotes the standard deviation of error)
(a)2 m temperature of 31 secondary circulation types, (b)2 m temperature of three wind speed groups, (c)10 m wind speed of 31 secondary circulation types, (d)10 m wind speed of three wind speed groups, (e)10 m wind direction of 31 secondary circulation types, (f)10 m wind direction of three wind speed groups
图 6 高山滑雪赛场平均风分布
(上方为叠加地形的三维图，下方为俯视平面图，白色圆点为自动气象站)
Fig. 6 Average wind speed distribution of alpine skiing field
(the upper part of plot is a three-dimensional map in the region alpine skiing field, the bottom part shows the top view in planar, white dots denote automatic weather stations)
图 8 全风速组情况下，高山滑雪赛场风速超出影响赛事风速阈值的风险概率分布
(其他说明同图 6)
(a)影响决策风速11 m·s-1，(b)重点影响风速14 m·s-1，(c)关键影响风速17 m·s-1Fig. 8 Probability of wind speed exceeding the threshold of alpine skiing of all wind speed groups
(the others same as in Fig. 6)
(a)critical decision point 11 m·s-1, (b)significant decision point 14 m·s-1, (c)factor to consider 17 m·s-1
图 9 仅小风速组情况下，高山滑雪赛场风速超出影响赛事风速阈值的风险概率分布
(其他说明同图 6)
(a)影响决策风速11 m·s-1，(b)重点影响风速14 m·s-1，(c)关键影响风速17 m·s-1Fig. 9 Probability of wind speed exceeding the threshold of alpine skiing of small wind speed group
(the others same as in Fig. 6)
(a)critical decision point 11 m·s-1, (b)significant decision point 14 m·s-1, (c)factor to consider 17 m·s-1表 1 L-J环流型分类
Table 1 L-J circulation classification scheme
条件 大类环流型 小类环流型 |ξ| < V 平直气流型D DE(1)，DS(4)，DSW(6)，DWSW(11)，
DWNW(16)，DNW(21)，DNWN(26)，DN(29)V≤|ξ|≤2V且ξ≥0 气旋-平直气流混合型C-h C-hE，C-hS，C-hSW(7)，C-hWSW(12)，
C-hWNW(17)，C-hNW(22)，C-hNWN，C-hNV≤|ξ|≤2V且ξ < 0 反气旋-平直气流混合型A-h A-hE(2)，A-hS，A-hSW(8)，A-hWSW(13)，
A-hWNW(18)，A-hNW(23)，A-hNWN(27)，A-hN(30)|ξ|>2V且ξ≥0 气旋型C CE，CS(5)，CSW(9)，CWSW(14)，
CWNW(19)，CNW(24)，CNWN，CN|ξ|>2V且ξ < 0 反气旋型A AE(3)，AS，ASW(10)，AWSW(15)，
AWNW(20)，ANW(25)，ANWN(28)，AN(31)注：括号内数字表示小类环流型序号。 
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表 2 2009—2021年2—3月延庆赛区小类环流型
Table 2 Secondary circulation types from Feb to Mar during 2009-2021 of Yanqing competition zone
风向 大类环流型 D C-h A-h C A E 13 0 6 0 6 S 42 2 5 7 2 SW 80 13 6 19 9 WSW 197 45 23 54 42 WNW 430 89 139 71 145 NW 331 43 247 37 187 NWN 189 5 180 5 152 N 71 0 85 0 84
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表 3 RMAPS-LES物理参数化方案
Table 3 Schemes used in RMAPS-LES simulations
参数化方案 d01 d02 d03 d04 边界层方案 YSU LES LES LES 微物理方案 New Thompson New Thompson New Thompson New Thompson 长、短波辐射方案 RRTMG RRTMG RRTMG RRTMG 近地层方案 Revised MM5 Revised MM5 Revised MM5 Revised MM5 陆面过程方案 Noah Noah Noah Noah 积云方案 Kain-Fritsch 无 无 无
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