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Possible Effects of the Difference in Atmospheric Heating Between the Tibetan Plateau and the Bay of Bengal on Spatiotemporal Evolution of Rainstorms
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摘要: 利用1979—2019年多年平均5—8月的逐日气象资料，采用EOF，MV-EOF、相关分析和合成分析等方法，对夏季青藏高原-孟加拉湾的大气热源与中国东部暴雨的时空演变特征及两者之间的联系进行探讨。研究结果表明：MV-EOF能够很好地表现不同要素的空间分布特征及其时间演变之间的联系。结果显示：在气候平均状态下，强降水事件分别发生在华南地区、华西和长江中下游地区时，青藏高原东部和孟加拉湾的大气加热出现相反的变化趋势，说明青藏高原东部和孟加拉湾之间的海陆热力对比很可能是导致中国东部强降水事件在不同地点发生的关键因素之一。合成分析结果揭示可能物理机制：青藏高原和孟加拉湾的热力对比变化通过调制大气垂直环流，影响南亚高压和西北太平洋副热带高压的位置和强度，改变水汽输送，最终对中国东部暴雨事件的时空变化产生重要的影响。Abstract: Based on the climatical daily meteorological data from May to August during 1979-2019, using the methods of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF), correlation analysis and synthetic analysis, the characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution of atmospheric heat sources around the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Bay of Bengal (BOB) are investigated, and their relationships with the rainstorm in eastern China are analyzed. It's found that MV-EOF can well show the relationship between the spatial distribution characteristics of different elements and their temporal evolution.The results reflect the close relationship between the thermal condition of TP and its surrounding areas, the summer monsoon circulation, and the rainstorm in eastern China.Correspondingly, the rainstorm events occur in Southeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, respectively. The spatial variation characteristics of the atmospheric heating in TP and surrounding areas show significant differences in the second and the third modes of MV-EOF, especially in the reversal of the thermal contrast between TP and BOB. The atmospheric heating in TP and BOB shows an opposite trend, which indicates that the sea-land thermal comparison between TP and BOB is likely to be one of the key factors leading to the occurrence of rainstorm events in different places in eastern China. The results of the synthetic analysis suggest a possible physical mechanism: When the atmospheric heating is weak over TP and strong over BOB, there is a strong ascending motion over BOB and its surrounding areas, which is conducive to the maintaining of South Asian high (SAH) and the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in southward position, and also conducive to the occurrence of cyclonic water vapor transportation circulation in Southeast China-South China Sea-Northwest Pacific. It weakens the southwesterly water vapor transportation, thus induces the continuous heavy precipitation in South China.After the increasing of the atmospheric heating over TP, the convergence and ascending motion of the lower atmosphere are strengthened, which attracts the SAH to move northward to TP, with an enhancement and eastward extension. The WPSH then lift northward, and the airflows around it convey more water vapor to West China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, resulting in heavy precipitation. The above results show that in the climate average state, the thermal contrast change of the TP and BOB can change the atmospheric vertical circulation through modulation, affect the location and intensity of the SAH and WPSH, and then change the water vapor transportation. It has an important impact on the spatiotemporal variation of the rainstorm events in the eastern China.
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图 1 MV-EOF分解第2模态的暴雨降水量空间分布(a)与时间系数(b)以及第3模态的暴雨降水量空间分布(c)与时间系数(d)
Fig. 1 The spatial distribution of rainstorm precipitation(a) with the time coefficient(b) of the second mode of MV-EOF decomposition and the spatial distribution of rainstorm precipitation(c) with the time coefficient(d) of the third mode of MV-EOF decomposition
图 2 大气视热源的MV-EOF分解第2模态(a)和第3模态(b)空间分布
(粗实线为青藏高原的范围示意)
Fig. 2 The spatial distribution of the apparent heat source of the atmosphere of the second mode(a) and the third mode(b) of MV-EOF decomposition
(the thick solid line denotes the scope of the Tibetan Plateau)
图 3 MV-EOF分解第2模态和第3模态的空间分布
(粗实线为青藏高原的范围示意)
(a)第2模态500 hPa位势高度，(b)第3模态500 hPa位势高度，(c)第2模态整层水汽输送通量(矢量) 及其散度(阴影)，(d)第3模态整层水汽输送通量(矢量) 及其散度(阴影)Fig. 3 The spatial distribution of the second mode and the third mode of MV-EOF decomposition
(the thick solid line denotes the scope of the Tibetan Plateau)
(a)500 hPa geopotential height of the second mode, (b)500 hPa geopotential height of the third mode, (c)integrated water transport flux (the vector) and its divergence (the shaded) of the second mode, (d)integrated water transport flux (the vector) and its divergence (the shaded) of the third mode
图 4 大气视热源的EOF分解第2模态和第3模态的空间分布及时间系数(粗实线为青藏高原的范围示意) (a)第2模态的空间分布，(b)第2模态的时间系数，(c)第3模态的空间分布，(d)第3模态的时间系数
(粗实线为青藏高原的范围示意)
(a)第2模态的空间分布，(b)第2模态的时间系数，(c)第3模态的空间分布，(d)第3模态的时间系数Fig. 4 The spatial distribution and time coefficient of the apparent heat source of the atmosphere of the second and the third modes of EOF decomposition
(the thick solid line denotes the scope of the Tibetan Plateau)
(a)the spatial distribution of the second mode of EOF decomposition, (b)the time coefficient of the second mode of EOF decomposition, (c)the spatial distribution of the third mode of EOF decomposition, (d)the time coefficient of the third mode of EOF decomposition
图 5 大气视热源的PC2高值阶段(6月13日—7月12日) (a)和PC3高值阶段(5月15日—6月12日) (b)的合成中国东部暴雨降水量分布
Fig. 5 The distribution of synthetic rainstorm precipitation in eastern China in the PC2 high value stage (from 13 Jun to 12 Jul) (a) and in the PC3 high value stage (from 15 May to 12 Jun) (b) based on EOF decomposition of the apparent heat source of the atmosphere
图 6 大气视热源的PC2(a)和PC3(b)与500 hPa垂直速度的相关系数
(仅显示达到0.05显著性水平的部分，粗实线为青藏高原的范围示意)
Fig. 6 The correlation coefficients between the PC2(a), PC3(b) of EOF decomposition of the apparent heat source of the atmosphere and vertical velocity at 500 hPa respectively
(only the contours passing the test of 0.05 level respectively are drawn, the thick solid line denotes the scope of the Tibetan Plateau)
图 7 大气视热源的PC2高值阶段(6月13日—7月12日) 200 hPa(a)，500 hPa(b)及PC3高值阶段(5月15日—6月12日) 200 hPa(c)，500 hPa(d)位势高度的合成分布(单位：dagpm)
(粗实线为青藏高原的范围示意)
Fig. 7 Distribution of composited geopotential heights at 200 hPa(a), 500 hPa(b) in the PC2 high value stage (from 13 Jun to 12 Jul) and 200 hPa(c), 500 hPa(d) in the PC3 high value stage based on EOF decomposition of the apparent source of the atmosphere (from 15 May to 12 Jun)(unit: dagpm)
(the thick solid line denotes the scope of the Tibetan Plateau)
图 8 大气视热源的PC2(a)和PC3(b)与整层水汽输送通量(矢量，仅给出达到0.05显著性水平的部分) 和中国东部暴雨降水量的相关系数(填色，深(浅)红色和深(浅)蓝色分别表示通过0.05(0.1) 显著性检验的正、负相关区)
(粗实线为青藏高原的范围示意)
Fig. 8 The correlation coefficients between the PC2(a), PC3(b) of EOF decomposition of the apparent heat source of the atmosphere and integrated water transport flux (the vector), rainstorm precipitation in eastern China (the shaded, dark(light) red and dark(light) blue denote the positive and the negative passing the test of 0.05(0.1) level, respectively)
(the thick solid line denotes the scope of the Tibetan Plateau)
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