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Refined Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Fujian
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摘要: 根据1981—2021年福建省热带气旋风雨资料，采用极差标准化、相关系数客观赋权法和自然断点法建立热带气旋致灾因子危险性评估模型，评估结果表明：选择降水7个因子和大风4个因子作为评估指标体系合理；雨高危险性区域位于沿海，南平和三明地区雨危险性较低；风较高危险性区域明显窄于雨较高危险性区域，危险性等级向内陆降低远快于降水，其中罗源湾至崇武沿海因受台湾岛地形屏障保护，危险性比沿海南北部小1个等级；风雨综合致灾危险性，沿海县市皆为较高危险性区域，其中中部沿海高危险性区域小，沿海南北部大，另外登陆粤东热带气旋沿海北上滞留在闽西上空的低压云团造成闽西北部存在较高危险性区域；在热带气旋登陆影响过程中，精细化致灾因子危险性评估更具有针对性，且与灾情相符，为气象灾害决策服务提供了更有价值的参考信息。Abstract: Tropical cyclones have brought huge economic losses to Fujian Province. In order to achieve dynamic monitoring and early warning of wind and rain disaster risks caused by tropical cyclones, the disaster-causing mechanism of tropical cyclones is analyzed. A refined risk assessment method is developed to meet the needs of real-time decision-making on disaster prevention, mitigation, and reducing the economic losses caused by tropical cyclones.Through multiple rounds of rationality tests, 7 rain-induced disaster factors and 4 wind-induced disaster factors are picked out based on the tropical cyclone wind and rain data of 66 national meteorological stations from 1981 to 2021. And then, the risk assessment model of tropical cyclone disaster factors is established using the range standardization and correlation coefficient objective weighting method, and the risk level is divided by the natural breakpoint method and the disaster impacts.The results show that the risk assessment index system of disaster factors is reasonable, and the spatial distribution of disaster risk is investigated. The high rain risk areas are located along the coast, and the rain risk of Nanping and Sanming areas is low; the high wind risk area is significantly narrower than the high rain risk area, and the risk level decreases fast inland. Among them, the coastal areas from Luoyuan Bay to Chongwu are protected by the terrain barrier of Taiwan, and the risk is one level lower than that of the north and south parts of the coast. In addition, after the tropical cyclone lands on the east coast of Guangdong and moves northward, it often stays in the low-pressure cloud over the west of Fujian, resulting in a high risk area in the northwest of Fujian. Based on the spatial distribution of a single tropical cyclone, the disaster situation and the encrypted wind and rain data of regional stations, using the function of GIS and combining several typical tropical cyclone cases, a reasonable threshold for hazard classification is designed. It is targeted, especially urban waterlogging and mountain torrent disasters, which are basically consistent with the disaster situation, and provide more valuable reference information for meteorological disaster decision-making services.
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Key words:
- tropical cyclone;
- hazard-inducing factors;
- precipitation;
- wind;
- risk assessment
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图 2 雨、风和风雨综合危险性分布
Fig. 2 Risk distribution of rain induced, wind induced, wind and rain induced
图 3 热带气旋玛莉亚致灾因子危险性分布
Fig. 3 Risk distribution of disaster factors by tropical cyclone Maria
图 4 雨灾型热带气旋致灾因子危险性分布
Fig. 4 Risk distribution of disaster factors by tropical cyclones with rain disasters
图 5 风灾型热带气旋桑美致灾因子危险性分布
Fig. 5 Risk distribution of disaster factors by tropical cyclone Saomai with wind disaster
图 6 风雨并重型热带气旋致灾因子危险性分布
Fig. 6 Risk distribution of disaster factors for tropical cyclones with both wind and rain
表 1 热带气旋灾害致灾因子危险性评估指标体系
Table 1 Risk assessment index system of tropical cyclone disaster-causing factors
等级 降水因子 大风因子 第1级 雨危险性 风危险性 第2级(气象要素) 降水 风速 第3级(因子) 过程日最大降水量(单站), 过程累积最大降水量(单站), 过程1 h最大降水量, 过程3 h最大降水量, 过程暴雨站日数, 过程大暴雨站日数, 过程特大暴雨站日数 过程日最大风速(单站), 过程日极大风速(单站), 过程最大风速不低于8级站日数, 过程极大风速不低于12级站日数 
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表 2 县级尺度热带气旋灾害致灾因子危险性等级
Table 2 Risk assessment classification of disaster-causing factors for tropical cyclone disaster at county level
等级 含义 降水因子 大风因子 风雨综合因子 1 低危险 0~0.2060 0~0.0995 0~0.1255 2 较低危险 0.2061~0.2967 0.0996~0.1954 0.1256~0.2158 3 中等危险 0.2968~0.4017 0.1955~0.2853 0.2159~0.3209 4 较高危险 0.4018~0.5230 0.2854~0.4495 0.3210~0.4490 5 高危险 0.5231~1 0.4496~1 0.4491~1
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表 3 乡镇级尺度热带气旋灾害致灾因子危险性等级
Table 3 Risk assessment classification of disaster-causing factors for tropial cyclone disaster at township level
等级 含义 降水因子 大风因子 风雨综合因子 1 低危险 0~0.2252 0~0.2124 0~0.1051 2 较低危险 0.2253~0.3206 0.2125~0.2767 0.1052~0.2041 3 中等危险 0.3207~0.4312 0.2768~0.3300 0.2042~0.2917 4 较高危险 0.4313~0.5413 0.3301~0.4039 0.2918~0.4078 5 高危险 0.5414~1 0.4040~1 0.4079~1
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