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Comparative Analysis on Meteorological and Hydrological Rain Gauge Observations of the Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in Henan Province During July 2021
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摘要: 2021年“21·7”河南特大暴雨打破我国大陆小时气象观测纪录，该极端天气事件位列2021年中国十大天气气候事件第2位。已有研究使用气象地面站雨量观测资料对此次过程进行雨情分析和极值统计，但降水时空分布不均匀，单一来源资料存在不确定性。通过对比气象站和水文站雨量资料，分析两套业务观测系统记录“21·7”河南特大暴雨过程的异同，发现气象站和水文站雨量在时间和空间分布上具有很好的一致性，两者不同等级的累积降雨落区、逐日和逐时降雨演变趋势均一致性强，但累积雨量和雨强极值的空间分布和数值存在差异，两套资料在暴雨中心（过程雨量大于600 mm）的系统性偏差小于1%。气象站和水文站的融合资料呈现比单一资料更细致的降雨分布、更全面的演变特征。此外，基于融合资料发现累积雨量排名前3位的城市（郑州、鹤壁、新乡）均具有累积雨量大、小时雨强极强、强降雨集中、雨强突然增长的特征，鹤壁和新乡最强降雨时段分别比郑州晚26 h和28 h。
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关键词:
- “21·7”河南特大暴雨;
- 气象站和水文站观测对比;
- 暴雨特征
Abstract: The extreme heavy rainfall event in Henan Province during 17-23 July 2021 with 1-hour rainfall intensity breaking historical record in the inland of China, ranks second among the top 10 weather and climate events in China in 2021. Previous studies have investigated the rain gauge observations collected by the meteorological ground stations to analyze the rainfall situation and count the extreme value of the "21·7" process. Considering the rainfall is uneven in space and time, the observations from a single source has great uncertainty which may miss the actual rainfall extreme value. By comparing the rainfall observations between meteorological and hydrological rain gauge stations, the objectivity and accuracy of the rainfall records from two business systems are analyzed for the "21·7" extreme heavy rainfall event. It is found that the observations exhibit good agreement in the accumulated rainfall distributions of various levels, and the temporal evolution of daily and hourly rainfall. However, the positions and values of accumulated rainfall and hourly rainfall intensity extremum are different in detail according to these two systems. The systematic deviation between the meteorological and hydrological observations is less than 1% in the heavy rainfall area (6-day accumulated rainfall more than 600 mm). These differences are related to the distinctness in the number, location, density of stations, and the accuracy of observation instruments. In addition, the inhomogeneous features of the rainfall in time and space also lead to the deviation of rainfall records between meteorological and hydrological observations.On the other hand, the meteorological and hydrological rainfall data in top 3 accumulated rainfall cities (Zhengzhou, Hebi and Xinxiang) are merged. The results show that merged rainfall data can present more detailed rainfall distributions and more objective rainfall evolution characteristics compared to single source data. Based on the merged rainfall data, the rainfall features in these three cities are summarized. The strongest rainfall period in Hebi and Xinxiang are about 26 hours and 28 hours later than that at Zhengzhou, respectively, while the rainfall events happened in these three cities are characterized by large accumulated amount, extremely strong hourly intensity, concentrated location and sudden increase of rainfall intensity. -
图 1 2021年7月17日08：00—23日08：00河南省中北部气象站(a)和水文站(b)累积雨量、河南省中北部及周边地形高度(黑色曲线为河南省界线，细灰色曲线为市界线)(c)，气象站和水文站分布(d)
Fig. 1 Accumulated rainfall from 0800 BT 17 Jul to 0800 BT 23 Jul in 2021 based on meteorological(a) and hydrological(b) observations, terrain elevations over central and northern Henan Province and its surroundings(the black thick curves denote provincial boundaries, the grey thin curves denote city boundaries)(c), distribution of meteorological and hydrological rain gauge stations(d)
图 2 2021年7月17—22日气象站和水文站逐日雨量
Fig. 2 Daily accumulated rainfall based on meteorological and hydrological observations during 17-22 Jul 2021
图 3 2021年7月17日08：00—23日08：00郑州、鹤壁、新乡气象站、水文站和融合累积雨量分布
Fig. 3 Accumulated rainfall from 0800 BT 17 Jul to 0800 BT 23 Jul in 2021 based on meteorological, hydrological, and merged observations over Zhengzhou, Hebi and Xinxiang
图 4 2021年7月17日08:00—23日08:00郑州、鹤壁和新乡逐时面雨量演变
Fig. 4 Temporal variations of hourly area-rainfall at Zhengzhou, Hebi and Xinxiang from 0800 BT 17 Jul to 0800 BT 23 Jul in 2021
图 5 2021年7月20日16:00—17:00郑州国家基本气象站周边气象站(圆点)和水文站(三角形)小时雨量
(深红色圆圈为以郑州国家基本气象站周边10 km的范围)
Fig. 5 Hourly rainfall around Zhengzhou National Basic Meteorological Station with Meteorological(the dot) and hydrological(the triangle) stations(the dark red circle denotes the area with a radius of 10 km centered on Zhengzhou National Basic Meteorological Station) from 1600 BT to 1700 BT on 20 Jul 2021
图 6 2021年7月19日08:00—22日08:00郑州、鹤壁、新乡代表气象站和水文站小时雨量
Fig. 6 Temporal variations of the hourly rainfall at Zhengzhou, Hebi, Xinxiang typical meteorological stations and adjacent hydrological stations from 0800 BT 19 Jul to 0800 BT 22 Jul in 2021
表 1 2021年7月17日08：00—23日08：00河南省累积雨量排名前10位的气象站和水文站
Table 1 Top 10 meteorological and hydrological stations with the highest 6-day accumulated rainfall from 0800 BT 17 Jul to 0800 BT 23 Jul in 2021
序号 气象站 水文站 站点 雨量/mm 站点 雨量/mm 1 鹤壁市科创中心 1 122.6 新乡市龙水梯 1 073.5 2 郑州市新密白寨 993.1 新乡市猴头脑 918.0 3 新乡市凤凰山 965.5 焦作市东岭后 916.5 4 郑州市侯寨 936.0 郑州市尖岗 916.5 5 新乡市牧野乡 935.2 鹤壁市大水头 914.0 6 鹤壁市外国语中学 923.4 新乡市新乡水文局 907.5 7 郑州市荥阳石板沟 905.8 新乡市耿庄 905.5 8 郑州市尖岗 899.5 新乡市凤泉区 901.0 9 郑州市巩义文化站 895.3 新乡市虎掌沟 896.5 10 安阳市六十五中 889.7 新乡市市政府 884.5 
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表 2 2021年7月17日08：00—23日08：00河南省气象站和水文站前10位小时雨强
Table 2 Top 10 meteorological and hydrological stations with the highest hourly rainfall rate from 0800 BT 17 Jul to 0800 BT 23 Jul in 2021
序号 气象站 水文站 站点 雨强/(mm·h-1) 时间 站点 雨强/(mm·h-1) 时间 1 郑州国家
基本气象站201.9 2021-07-20T16:00—17:00 郑州市
经济开发区151.0 2021-07-20T16:00—17:00 2 郑州市尖岗 158.0 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00 郑州市地震局 150.0 2021-07-20T16:00—17:00 3 新乡市牧野乡 149.9 2021-07-21T20:00—21:00 郑州市尖岗 147.0 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00 4 郑州市中原区 144.4 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00 郑州市常庄 146.0 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00 5 郑州市奥体中心 138.7 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00 郑州市大李庄 141.5 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00 6 安阳市六十五中 138.0 2021-07-22T04:00—05:00 郑州市水利设计院 136.5 2021-07-20T16:00—17:00 7 郑州市外国语 137.9 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00 郑州市西流湖 134.0 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00 8 郑州市气象局 135.7 2021-07-20T16:00—17:00 鹤壁市南宋庄 129.5 2021-07-21T18:00—19:00 9 新乡市牧野 131.1 2021-07-21T19:00—20:00 郑州市市水务局 128.5 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00 10 鹤壁市淇县北阳 130.1 2021-07-21T18:00—19:00 郑州市铁路局 127.0 2021-07-20T15:00—16:00
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表 3 2021年7月17—22日河南省中部和北部过程雨量大于600 mm的强降水落区内气象站和水文站逐日雨量、过程面雨量以及气象站与水文站雨量的绝对偏差、相对偏差
Table 3 Daily rainfall,6-day accumulation area rainfall, absolute error and relative error in the heavy rainfall area with 6-day accumulation rainfall greater than 600 mm for meteorological and hydrological observations over central and northern Henan Province during 17-22 Jul 2021
落区位置 统计量 07-17 07-18 07-19 07-20 07-21 07-22 07-17—22 河南省中部 气象站雨量(70站)/mm 4.4 40.7 243.9 379.3 45.9 2.23 716.5 水文站雨量(58站)/mm 4.7 44.2 236.5 383.0 42.0 2.18 712.5 绝对偏差/mm -0.3 -3.5 7.4 -3.7 3.9 0.05 4.0 相对偏差/% -5.8 -8.5 -3.1 -1 8.5 2.3 0.6 河南省北部 气象站雨量(109站)/mm 14.2 73.8 45.4 165.9 394.1 38.4 731.9 水文站雨量(168站)/mm 17.3 83.5 48.7 154.2 383.0 44.8 731.6 绝对偏差/mm -3.1 -9.7 -3.3 11.7 11.1 -6.4 0.3 相对偏差/% -21.9 -13.1 -7.2 7.1 2.8 -16.7 0.04 注：绝对偏差为气象站与水文站雨量之差，相对偏差为气象站与水文站雨量差和气象站雨量之比，下同。
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表 4 2021年7月17—22日郑州、鹤壁、新乡气象站和水文站逐日雨量、过程面雨量及二者绝对偏差和相对偏差
Table 4 Daily rainfall,6-day accumulation area rainfall, absolute error and relative error of meteorological and hydrological observations at Zhengzhou, Hebi and Xinxiang during 17-22 Jul 2021
城市 统计量 07-17 07-18 07-19 07-20 07-21 07-22 07-17—22 郑州 气象站雨量/mm 3.3 30.5 190.6 278.7 30.3 1.8 535.3 水文站雨量/mm 3.1 31.9 182.9 252.1 28.6 1.9 500.6 绝对偏差/mm 0.2 -1.4 7.7 26.6 1.7 -0.1 34.7 相对偏差/% 7.0% -4.6% 4.0% 9.5% 5.5% -6.5% 6.5% 鹤壁 气象站雨量/mm 12.2 55.4 22.8 137.5 334.1 24.1 586.1 水文站雨量/mm 16.0 55.3 24.8 119.9 328.7 23.2 567.8 绝对偏差/mm -3.8 0.1 -2.0 17.6 5.4 0.9 18.3 相对偏差/% -30.7% -0.3% -8.7% 12.8% 1.6% 3.5% 3.1% 新乡 气象站雨量/mm 6.9 34.1 53.1 212.0 146.3 16.2 468.7 水文站雨量/mm 9.8 50.4 55.8 192.6 169.8 23.6 502.1 绝对偏差/mm -2.9 -16.3 -2.7 19.4 -23.5 -7.4 -33.4 相对偏差/% -42.2% -47.9% -5.2% 9.2% -16.0% -45.5% -7.1%
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表 5 2021年7月17日08:00—23日08:00郑州国家基本气象站和附近水文站不同时段累积雨量
Table 5 Accumulated rainfall for various durations at the meteorological and hydrological typical stations from Zhengzhou National Basic Meteorological Station and adjacent hydrological stations from 0800 BT 17 Jul to 0800 BT 23 Jul in 2021
时段 郑州国家基本气象站/mm 二七水文站/mm 铁路局水文站/mm 地震局水文站/mm 经济开发区水文站/mm 尖岗气象站/mm 尖岗水文站/mm 07-20T15:00—16:00 158.0 147.0 07-20T16:00—17:00 201.9 108.0 122.0 150.0 151.0 07-20T14:00—17:00 333.2 319.0 07-20T15:00—18:00 310.8 227.0 288.0 300.0 266.0 07-20T14:00—20:00 374.3 282.0 354.0 366.0 315.0 465.9 463.5 07-20T08:00—21T08:00 624.1 504.5 568.0 609.5 537.0 626.9 691.1 07-19T08:00—21T08:00 731.0 608.5 664.5 713.5 638.5 816.4 816.1 07-17T08:00—23T08:00 789.3 700.0 766.0 800.5 702.0 899.5 916.5
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表 6 郑州、鹤壁和新乡的气象站、水文站和融合资料的最大小时雨量、最大日雨量与6 d累积雨量
Table 6 The maximun hourly, daily, and 6-day accumulated rainfall based on meteorological,hydrological,and merged rainfall at Zhengzhou, Hebi and Xinxiang
地点 资料 最大小时雨量 最大日雨量 6 d累积雨量 雨量/mm 站点 雨量/mm 站点 雨量/mm 站点 郑州 融合资料 19.0 264.2 516.4 气象站 201.9 郑州国家基本气象站 663.9 侯寨 993.1 新密白寨 水文站 151 经济开发区 695.6 尖岗 916.5 尖岗 鹤壁 融合资料 26.2 330.7 574.9 气象站 130.1 淇县北阳 777.5 科创中心 1122.6 科创中心 水文站 128.5 南宋庄 614.5 新村 914.0 大水头 新乡 融合资料 17.6 200.6 491.0 气象站 149.9 牧野乡 570.2 卫辉塔岗 965.5 凤凰山 水文站 126.5 市政府 560.0 虎掌沟 1073.5 龙水梯
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