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Performance Evaluation of CMA-BJ V2.0 System for Precipitation Forecast in North China
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摘要: 利用CMA-BJ V2.0系统在2021年汛期（6—9月）华北地区预报的平均日降水量和24 h内逐时降水量，评估不同水平分辨率（3 km和9 km）在降水量、有效降水时次占比、降水强度、降水日变化等方面的预报性能。结果表明：9 km和3 km分辨率预报均可较好地反映降水量和落区，捕捉平均日降水量大于8 mm的降水区域分布特征，但降水量级的预报较观测偏大；对小时降水量和有效降水时次占比日变化的预报与观测基本一致，但对傍晚的峰值预报偏强，且多个时段空报，同时高估了小时降水量。与9 km分辨率预报相比，3 km分辨率预报对有效降水时次占比随累积降水量的变化趋势与观测更接近，对小时有效降水时次占比日变化、峰谷值出现时间的预报也与观测更接近。9 km分辨率预报对弱降水过程的预报能力更优，而3 km分辨率预报对强降水过程的预报能力更优。
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关键词:
- CMA-BJ V2.0预报系统;
- 偏差特征;
- 定量降水预报评估
Abstract: To meet the requirement of numerical weather forecast for local severe convective weather, especially disastrous weather and extreme weather events, based on CMA-BJ V2.0 system, many works have been implemented, including increasing the model vertical layer to 59 layers, testing different physical parameterization schemes, assimilating unconventional local dense data such as wind profile radar and the near surface data, developing rapid cycle technology, and applying the incremental analysis update initialization technique of large-scale dynamic hybrid scheme for forecast field. By integrating all the jobs mentioned, the rapid analysis and forecast system CMA-BJ V2.0 has been established and put into operational run since June 2021 with 1 h time interval. A large number of tests and evaluations on multiple versions of the CMA-BJ numerical forecast system have been carried out. It is confirmed that the forecast skills of the model are improving year by year. There are still some problems in the forecast, such as heavy precipitation, high percentage of effective precipitation hours, and large deviation in the forecast of weak precipitation. Based upon 24 h precipitation forecast and 24 h hourly precipitation forecast information in North China on each day of the 2021 flood season (June to September), the comprehensive performance of CMA-BJ V2.0 forecast system with different resolutions (3 km and 9 km) is carefully evaluated and analyzed in terms of accumulation, percentage of effective precipitation hours, precipitation intensity, and daily cycle characteristics. The results show that both 9 km and 3 km resolutions can forecast the precipitation level and the rainfall area well and capture the regional distribution characteristics of precipitation with daily average precipitation greater than 8 mm well, but the forecast of precipitation level is larger than the observation. The forecast of hourly precipitation and the daily cycle of percentage of effective precipitation hours in North China is generally consistent with the observation, but the forecast of the peak in the evening is strong. The hourly precipitation is overestimated due to false alarms. For 3 km resolution forecast, the trend of percentage of effective precipitation hours is more similar to the observation. The magnitudes are closer to the observation than 9 km resolution forecast. 9 km resolution forecasts have better forecasting ability for weak precipitation processes, while 3 km resolution forecast is better at strong precipitation processes. The forecast results of a typical precipitation case in North China on 21 July 2021 are consistent with the test results of the average of the whole flood season: The model of both resolutions can better forecast the precipitation process, but the amount and percentage of effective precipitation hours is overestimated. -
图 1 CMA-BJ V2.0系统预报区域和模式地形(填色)
Fig. 1 Domain and terrain height (the shaded) of CMA-BJ V2.0
图 2 2021年汛期观测和预报的平均日降水量
Fig. 2 Observed and predicted daily precipitation in the summer of 2021
图 3 2021年汛期华北地区观测和预报有效降水时次占比随日降水量的变化
Fig. 3 Observed and predicted percentage of effective precipitation hours varying with daily precipitation over North China in the summer of 2021
图 4 2021年汛期观测和预报的有效降水时次占比
Fig. 4 Observed and predicted percentage of effective precipitation hours in the summer of 2021
图 5 2021年汛期观测和预报的降水强度
Fig. 5 Observed and predicted precipitation intensity in the summer of 2021
图 6 2021年汛期华北地区观测和预报的小时降水量逐日演变(填色) 和日变化(曲线)
Fig. 6 Daily evolution (the shaded) and diurnal cycle (the curve) of observed and predicted hourly precipitation over North China in the summer of 2021
图 7 2021年汛期华北地区观测和预报的小时有效降水时次占比逐日演变(填色) 和日变化(曲线)
Fig. 7 Daily evolution (the shaded) and diurnal cycle (the curve) of observed and predicted hourly percentage of effective precipitation hours over North China in the summer of 2021
图 8 2021年汛期观测和预报的降水峰值时间
Fig. 8 Observed and predicted peak precipitation time in the summer of 2021
图 9 2021年7月21日08:00—22日08:00华北区域观测和模式预报的24 h累积降水量
Fig. 9 Observed and predicted 24 h accumulated precipitation from 0800 BT 21 Jul to 0800 BT 22 Jul in 2021
图 10 2021年7月21日08:00—22日08:00华北区域观测和预报的小时降水量(a)和小时有效降水时次占比(b)
Fig. 10 Time series of observed and predicted hourly precipitation(a) and hourly percentage of effective precipitation hours(b) from 0800 BT 21 Jul to 0800 BT 22 Jul in 2021
表 1 9 km和3 km分辨率预报与观测的均方根误差及空间相关系数
Table 1 Root mean square error and correlation coefficient between observation and forecast with 9 km and 3 km resolutions
变量 分类 均方根误差 空间相关系数 9 km分辨率预报 3 km分辨率预报 9 km分辨率预报 3 km分辨率预报 平均日降水量/mm 1.38 1.48 0.71 0.70 有效降水时次占比/% 雨日 14.23 8.98 0.59 0.45 强降水日 2.20 2.40 0.62 0.60 降水强度/(mm·d-1) 雨日 3.57 3.17 0.68 0.67 强降水日 15.67 13.43 0.23 0.29 
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