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CMA-BJ V2.0系统华北地区降水预报性能评估

张舒婷 仲跻芹 卢冰 黄向宇 陈敏 张鑫宇 全继萍

张舒婷, 仲跻芹, 卢冰, 等. CMA-BJ V2.0系统华北地区降水预报性能评估. 应用气象学报, 2023, 34(2): 129-141. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230201..
引用本文: 张舒婷, 仲跻芹, 卢冰, 等. CMA-BJ V2.0系统华北地区降水预报性能评估. 应用气象学报, 2023, 34(2): 129-141. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230201.
Zhang Shuting, Zhong Jiqin, Lu Bing, et al. Performance evaluation of CMA-BJ V2.0 System for precipitation forecast in North China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(2): 129-141. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230201.
Citation: Zhang Shuting, Zhong Jiqin, Lu Bing, et al. Performance evaluation of CMA-BJ V2.0 System for precipitation forecast in North China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(2): 129-141. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230201.

CMA-BJ V2.0系统华北地区降水预报性能评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230201
资助项目: 

国家重点研发计划 SQ2021YFC3000223

详细信息
    通信作者:

    仲跻芹, 邮箱:jqzhong@ium.cn

Performance Evaluation of CMA-BJ V2.0 System for Precipitation Forecast in North China

  • 摘要: 利用CMA-BJ V2.0系统在2021年汛期(6—9月)华北地区预报的平均日降水量和24 h内逐时降水量,评估不同水平分辨率(3 km和9 km)在降水量、有效降水时次占比、降水强度、降水日变化等方面的预报性能。结果表明:9 km和3 km分辨率预报均可较好地反映降水量和落区,捕捉平均日降水量大于8 mm的降水区域分布特征,但降水量级的预报较观测偏大;对小时降水量和有效降水时次占比日变化的预报与观测基本一致,但对傍晚的峰值预报偏强,且多个时段空报,同时高估了小时降水量。与9 km分辨率预报相比,3 km分辨率预报对有效降水时次占比随累积降水量的变化趋势与观测更接近,对小时有效降水时次占比日变化、峰谷值出现时间的预报也与观测更接近。9 km分辨率预报对弱降水过程的预报能力更优,而3 km分辨率预报对强降水过程的预报能力更优。
  • 图  1  CMA-BJ V2.0系统预报区域和模式地形(填色)

    Fig. 1  Domain and terrain height (the shaded) of CMA-BJ V2.0

    图  2  2021年汛期观测和预报的平均日降水量

    Fig. 2  Observed and predicted daily precipitation in the summer of 2021

    图  3  2021年汛期华北地区观测和预报有效降水时次占比随日降水量的变化

    Fig. 3  Observed and predicted percentage of effective precipitation hours varying with daily precipitation over North China in the summer of 2021

    图  4  2021年汛期观测和预报的有效降水时次占比

    Fig. 4  Observed and predicted percentage of effective precipitation hours in the summer of 2021

    图  5  2021年汛期观测和预报的降水强度

    Fig. 5  Observed and predicted precipitation intensity in the summer of 2021

    图  6  2021年汛期华北地区观测和预报的小时降水量逐日演变(填色) 和日变化(曲线)

    Fig. 6  Daily evolution (the shaded) and diurnal cycle (the curve) of observed and predicted hourly precipitation over North China in the summer of 2021

    图  7  2021年汛期华北地区观测和预报的小时有效降水时次占比逐日演变(填色) 和日变化(曲线)

    Fig. 7  Daily evolution (the shaded) and diurnal cycle (the curve) of observed and predicted hourly percentage of effective precipitation hours over North China in the summer of 2021

    图  8  2021年汛期观测和预报的降水峰值时间

    Fig. 8  Observed and predicted peak precipitation time in the summer of 2021

    图  9  2021年7月21日08:00—22日08:00华北区域观测和模式预报的24 h累积降水量

    Fig. 9  Observed and predicted 24 h accumulated precipitation from 0800 BT 21 Jul to 0800 BT 22 Jul in 2021

    图  10  2021年7月21日08:00—22日08:00华北区域观测和预报的小时降水量(a)和小时有效降水时次占比(b)

    Fig. 10  Time series of observed and predicted hourly precipitation(a) and hourly percentage of effective precipitation hours(b) from 0800 BT 21 Jul to 0800 BT 22 Jul in 2021

    表  1  9 km和3 km分辨率预报与观测的均方根误差及空间相关系数

    Table  1  Root mean square error and correlation coefficient between observation and forecast with 9 km and 3 km resolutions

    变量 分类 均方根误差 空间相关系数
    9 km分辨率预报 3 km分辨率预报 9 km分辨率预报 3 km分辨率预报
    平均日降水量/mm 1.38 1.48 0.71 0.70
    有效降水时次占比/% 雨日 14.23 8.98 0.59 0.45
    强降水日 2.20 2.40 0.62 0.60
    降水强度/(mm·d-1) 雨日 3.57 3.17 0.68 0.67
    强降水日 15.67 13.43 0.23 0.29
    下载: 导出CSV
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