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Verification of Rainstorm Based on Numerical Model About CMA-TYM and SCMOC in Nenjiang Basin
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摘要: 选取2021年嫩江流域9个暴雨日，利用降水融合产品，采用CRA空间检验，对区域台风数值预报系统（CMA-TYM）和国家级智能网格指导预报（SCMOC）20：00起报的24 h降水预报产品进行检验。结果表明：CMA-TYM和SCMOC预报的最大降水量位置均偏西、偏北，CMA-TYM和SCMOC预报的降水落区均偏西，但前者偏北，后者略偏南，SCMOC预报优于CMA-TYM。误差分析表明：CMA-TYM和SCMOC预报的暴雨落区最大降水量和平均降水量比实况偏小，格点数、面积较实况偏大，但整体上，CMA-TYM预报更接近实况。CRA空间检验显示，CMA-TYM预报的降水强度和落区形态、SCMOC预报的降水落区位置和形态较接近实况，具有一定指示意义。
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关键词:
- 嫩江流域暴雨;
- CMA-TYM和SCMOC预报产品;
- CRA空间检验
Abstract: The Nenjiang is the north source of the Songhua River. Nenjiang Basin is an important commodity grain base in China. The change of water level in Nenjiang Basin during the flood season is closely related to the precipitation, especially the continuous rainstorm and heavy rainstorm are very easy to cause flood disaster. For example, Nenjiang Basin is affected by the continuous rainstorm and heavy rainstorm weather on 18 July 2021, the Yong'an Reservoir bursted, the Xin'an Reservoir collapsed, residents across the towns are hit by the flood disaster. The flood in Nenjiang Basin has great impacts on the national economy and people's lives. Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of rainstorm prediction in Nenjiang Basin, the deviation between CMA-TYM and SCMOC precipitation products are analyzed from the aspects of rainstorm area and intensity, and the correction ability is improved, which has certain practical significance for agricultural production, reservoir storage, and water resource allocation in the basin. At the same time, it also provides a strong guarantee for forecast warning, people's lives and property security, and sustainable healthy development of social. Nine rainstorm days are selected in 2021, using merged precipitation, based on numerical model products by CMA-TYM and SCMOC, the contiguous rain area (CRA) technique is used to test 24 h precipitation predicted at 2000 BT. The results show that maximum precipitation position deviation of rainstorm days predicted by CMA-TYM and SCMOC are west and north, but precipitation location of rainstorm days tested by CRA technique are west, the former is north, the latter is slightly south. SCMOC prediction preforms better than CMA-TYM. Error analysis show that, it is smaller than the precipitation observation that maximum precipitation value and average precipitation of observed rainstorm area predicted by CMA-TYM and SCMOC, but the grid numbers and area are larger than the observation. On the whole, CMA_TYM forecast is closer to the observation. CRA technique shows that the intensity and pattern of precipitation location predicted by CMA-TYM, location and pattern of precipitation predicted by SCMOC are close to the observation, and it has certain instructive significance. -
图 1 2021年7月18日嫩江流域暴雨落区(红色三角表示永安水库和新发水库位置，蓝线表示嫩江流域二级和三级河流，下同) (a)降水融合产品暴雨落区(填色)，(b)CRA空间检验的CMA-TYM预报产品不小于50 mm格点(填色)，(c)CRA空间检验的SCMOC预报产品不小于50 mm格点(填色)
Fig. 1 Observed rainstorm area in Nenjiang Basin on 18 Jul 2021 (the red triangle denotes the location of Yong'an Reservoir and Xinfa Reservoir, the blue line denotes the secondorder and the thirdorder river, hereinafter) (a)rainstorm area of merged precipitation (the shaded), (b)CMA-TYM grid data of no less than 50 mm precipitation verified by CRA (the shaded), (c)SCMOC grid data of no less than 50 mm precipitation verified by CRA (the shaded)
图 2 2021年7月17—19日嫩江流域暴雨落区
Fig. 2 Rainstorm area in Nenjiang Basin from 17 Jul to 19 Jul in 2021
图 3 2021年嫩江流域9个暴雨日最大降水量位置偏差和最小位移偏差(a)CMA-TYM预报最大降水量位置偏差，(b)SCMOC预报最大降水量位置偏差，(c)CMA-TYM预报最小位移偏差, (d)SCMOC预报最小位移偏差
Fig. 3 Position deviation of maximum precipitation and minimum displacement deviation of 9 rainstorm days in Nenjiang Basin in 2021 (a)position deviation of maximum precipitation predicted by CMA-TYM, (b)position deviation of maximum precipitation predicted by SCMOC, (c)minimum displacement deviation predicted by CMA-TYM, (d)minimum displacement deviation predicted by SCMOC
图 4 2021年嫩江流域9个暴雨日CMA-TYM和SCMOC预报与实况对比
Fig. 4 Comparision of CMA-TYM and SCMOC forecast to observation of 9 rainstorm days in Nenjiang Basin in 2021
图 5 2021年嫩江流域9个暴雨日CRA空间检验误差占比
Fig. 5 Error proportion test of 9 rainstorm days by CRA in Nenjiang Basin in 2021
图 6 2021年嫩江流域9个暴雨日CMA-TYM和SCMOC最大降水量误差和最小位移偏差
Fig. 6 Error of maximum precipitation and minimum displacement deviation of 9 rainstorm days predicted by CMA-TYM and SCMOC in Nenjiang Basin in 2021
表 1 2021年嫩江流域暴雨日
Table 1 Rainstorm days in Nenjiang Basin in 2021
暴雨日 日期 实况暴雨落区 24 h最大降水量/mm 500 hPa影响系统 实况 CMA-TYM SCMOC 06-14 6月14日 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市，吉林省白城市 128.2 59.9 43.5 槽 06-15 6月15日 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市，黑龙江大兴安岭地区 102.4 108.0 69.4 槽 07-01 7月1日 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟，吉林省白城市 146.0 138.8 62.8 低涡前部 07-14 7月14日 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市，黑龙江大兴安岭地区 105.6 94.7 86.6 槽前部 07-17 7月17日 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市 119.5 38.8 12.8 槽前部 07-18 7月18日 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市、黑河市 153.4 131.7 68.8 东北冷涡 07-19 7月19日 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市、黑河市 140.6 113.1 77.6 东北冷涡 07-26 7月26日 内蒙古兴安盟，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市、大庆市、绥化市、黑河市、伊春市 93.2 127.3 76.2 东北冷涡 07-31 7月31日 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市 104.8 103.7 116.9 东北冷涡 
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