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Comparison on the Circulation Background of Tropical Cyclone Affecting the South China Sea Based upon Different Reanalysis Datasets
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摘要: 利用1981—2020年中国热带气旋最佳路径数据集、中国大气再分析资料（CMA-RA）、欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5及美国NCEP/NCAR再分析资料（NCEP-Ⅰ），对比不同资料在表征影响南海热带气旋活动环流背景的能力，探讨CMA-RA的适用性。结果表明：不同资料基本刻画出与热带气旋活动密切相关的环流特征，包括南方涛动、菲律宾至南海低层纬向风、热带低层纬向风反向分布型、菲律宾至南海中东部低层涡度、热带西太平洋垂直风切变及南海至菲律宾以东海域中层湿度。它们对南方涛动、关键区纬向风和中层湿度的刻画较相似，CMA-RA和ERA5对南方涛动、低层纬向风及其与热带气旋关系的描述一致性高，较NCEP-Ⅰ密切，但低层经向风、关键物理量差异较大。对极端年环流具有相似的表现能力，但异常程度存在差异，海平面气压、低层纬向风高度一致，以CMA-RA与ERA5最接近；中层湿度CMA-RA与ERA5接近，较NCEP-Ⅰ偏小；关键物理量差异较大。CMA-RA对南海热带气旋环流的刻画具有与ERA5和NCEP-Ⅰ相当的性能，并与ERA5一致性较高，可为相关工作提供可替换的再分析资料集。Abstract: China Meteorological Administration launched China's Global atmospheric reanalysis program in November 2013, and the global atmospheric reanalysis product (CMA-RA) has been successfully developed. The performance of CMA-RA on describing the circulation background of tropical cyclone activity affecting the South China Sea is analyzed and compared with ERA5 and NCEP-Ⅰ, exploring the applicability of CMA-RA in tropical cyclone activity analysis, based on the tropical cyclone best track dataset compiled by Shanghai Typhoon Research Institute of China Meteorological Administration, CMA-RA, the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis dataset (ERA5) and the first generation atmospheric monthly reanalysis dataset of National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR) from 1981 to 2020. The results are shown as follows. Three reanalysis datasets can basically depict the anomaly circulation characteristics of the key influence regions closely related to tropical cyclone activity affecting the South China Sea from July to October, including the Southern Oscillation, low-level zonal wind field in the Philippines to the eastern sea of the South China Sea, reverse distribution pattern of low-level zonal wind filed in the tropics, low-level vorticity from the Philippines to the central and eastern part of the South China Sea, environmental vertical wind shear in the tropical western Pacific, and mid-level humidity field from the South China Sea to the eastern sea of the Philippines. All datasets are highly similar in describing the Southern Oscillation, low-level zonal wind field and mid-level humidity field of key regions. CMA-RA and ERA5 have high agreement on the Southern Oscillation, low-level zonal wind characteristics and their relationship with tropical cyclone activity, which are closer than NCEP-Ⅰ. However, their characterization of low-level meridional wind field, relative vorticity and vertical wind shear are relatively different. Some circulations in the tropical Indian Ocean are relatively different with each other too. All datasets have similar ability to depict the key regions circulations in the extreme years of tropical cyclone activity, but they are different in area and intensity. They are highly consistent in the sea level pressure and low-level zonal wind characteristics, with CMA-RA and ERA5 being the most similar. The mid-level humidity of CMA-RA is consistent with ERA5, and they are both lower than NCEP-Ⅰ. But the characteristics of low-level relative vorticity and vertical wind shear are significantly different. CMA-RA has comparable performance with ERA5 and NCEP-Ⅰ in describing the circulation background of tropical cyclone activity affecting the South China Sea, and it's highly consistent with ERA5 on the whole. Therefore, it can provide an alternative atmospheric reanalysis dataset for the research of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea.
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图 2 不同资料7—10月海平面气压与南海热带气旋频数相关场对比
(填色表示达到0.05显著性水平，下同)
Fig. 2 Comparison of different datasets in correlations between sea level pressure and tropical cyclone frequency of the South China Sea from Jul to Oct
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level, the same hereinafter)
图 3 不同资料7—10月850 hPa纬向风场、850 hPa经向风场与南海热带气旋频数相关场对比
Fig. 3 Comparison of different datasets in correlations of 850 hPa zonal wind, 850 hPa meridional wind to tropical cyclone frequency of the South China Sea from Jul to Oct
图 4 不同资料7—10月850 hPa相对涡度场、垂直风切变场与南海热带气旋频数相关场对比
Fig. 4 Comparison of different datasets in correlations of 850 hPa relative vorticity, vertical wind shear to tropical cyclone frequency of the South China Sea from Jul to Oct
图 5 不同资料7—10月600 hPa相对湿度场与南海热带气旋频数相关场的对比
Fig. 5 Comparison of different datasets in correlations between 600 hPa relative humidity and tropical cyclone frequency of the South China Sea from Jul to Oct
图 6 不同资料7—10月南海热带气旋频数极端年份的海平面气压差值场
Fig. 6 Sea level pressure difference between different datasets in extreme tropical cyclone frequency years of the South China Sea from Jul to Oct
图 8 不同资料2004年7—10月850 hPa相对涡度差值场和垂直风切变差值场
Fig. 8 850 hPa relative vorticity difference and vertical wind shear difference between different datasets from Jul to Oct in 2004
表 1 不同资料7—10月热带地区850 hPa纬向风距平场EOF前两个模态方差贡献率(单位：%)
Table 1 Comparison of different datasets in variance contributions of the first two EOF modes of 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly in tropical region from Jul to Oct (unit:%)
模态 CMA-RA ERA5 NCEP-Ⅰ EOF1 60.9 61.8 52.8 EOF2 10.2 10.3 13.3 
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