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Impact of Climate Change on Potential Planting Areas of Rubber Trees in Yunnan
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摘要: 利用1981—2020年气象观测数据, 从种植气候适宜性区划角度分析气候变化对云南橡胶潜在种植区的影响。结果显示: 2011—2020年与1981—1990年相比, 云南南部和东部地区橡胶种植县大部地区的年平均气温升高0.6~0.8℃, 西部大部地区升高1.0℃以上; 哀牢山以东橡胶种植县大部地区1月平均气温升高0~1.0℃, 以西大部地区则升高1.0~2.0℃; 2011—2020年云南橡胶潜在种植区区划与1981—1990年相比, 最适宜区增加55.3%, 适宜区增加18.6%, 增加区域主要分布在哀牢山以西。云南橡胶潜在种植区发生明显变化, 气候变化使哀牢山以西地区更适宜橡胶种植和产业的发展。Abstract: Based on the meteorological observations since 1981, the impact of climate change on rubber tree planting in Yunnan is analyzed from the aspect of the climatic suitability of rubber tree. The results show that annual average temperature of the main rubber producing counties in the south and east increases by 0.6-0.8℃ in most areas, and more than 1.0℃ in most areas in the west. In January, the average temperature in most areas of the main rubber producing counties in the east of the Ailao Mountain increases by 0-1.0℃, while that in the west increases by 1.0-2.0℃ in the 2010s compared with the 1980s. At the same time, the most suitable and suitable climate area for rubber tree planting increase by 55.3% and 18.6%, respectively. The increased areas are mainly distributed in the west of the Ailao Mountain, indicating that the west area of the Ailao Mountain is more suitable for rubber tree planting due to climate change.
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Key words:
- climate change;
- rubber tree;
- climatic suitability zoning;
- Yunnan
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图 1 2011—2020年与1981—1990年年平均气温差值(单位：℃)
(绿线表示橡胶种植县，下同)
Fig. 1 Annual average temperature change between the 2010s and the 1980s(unit: ℃)
(areas in green lines are rubber planting counties, similarly hereinafter)
图 2 2011—2020年与1981—1990年1月平均气温差值(单位：℃)
Fig. 2 January average temperature change between the 2010s and the 1980s(unit: ℃)
图 3 2011—2020年与1981—1990年年降水量差值(单位：mm)
Fig. 3 Annual precipitation change between the 2010s and the 1980s(unit: mm)
图 4 1981—1990年(a)和2011—2020年(b)云南橡胶潜在种植区对比
Fig. 4 Comparison of climatic suitability regionalization of rubber tree planting in Yunnan Province in the 1980s(a) and the 2010s(b)
表 1 云南橡胶潜在种植区区划指标
Table 1 Climatic suitability regionalization index of rubber tree planting in Yunnan
区划指标因子 最适宜 适宜 次适宜 不适宜 年平均气温/℃ >20.0 19.1~20.0 18.0~19.0 < 18.0 1月平均气温/℃ >15.0 12.1~15.0 10.0~12.0 < 10.0 年降水量/mm >1800 1301~1800 1000~1300 < 1000 
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表 2 1981—2020年橡胶潜在种植区面积(单位：106 hm2)
Table 2 Potential planting area of rubber tree from 1981 to 2020(unit: 106 hm2)
年份 次适宜 适宜 最适宜 1981—1990年 1.58 1.45 1.59 1991—2000年 1.72 1.60 1.89 2001—2010年 1.79 1.73 2.27 2011—2020年 1.78 1.72 2.47
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