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Refined Verification of Numerical Forecast of Subtropical High Edge Precipitation in Huanghuai Region
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摘要: 以2020—2021年5—10月副高边缘型明显降水过程作为研究对象，针对黄淮地区太行山南麓、伏牛山东麓、东部平原3个典型区域，采用多种检验方法对CMA-MESO，CMA-SH9两模式降水日变化预报性能进行评估。结果表明：在山区，CMA-MESO预报有效降水时次占比与降水强度均偏小，CMA-SH9则相反，两模式分别在伏牛山东麓的04：00—10：00(北京时，下同)和太行山南麓的10：00—16：00预报有效降水时次占比偏小(大)更为显著；在平原，CMA-MESO对03：00—07：00和17：00—20：00有效降水时次占比显著低估，CMA-SH9对于17：00—20：00降水量的高估则主要来源于降水强度预报明显偏大。FSS(fractional skill score)评分结果显示：CMA-MESO对于伏牛山东麓15：00—17：00及21：00—22：00、东部平原02：00—04：00等时段10 mm·h-1以上降水预报能力优于CMA-SH9，在太行山南麓17：00—23：00则相反。基于STFSS(spatial temporal fractional skill score)评分的评估表明：CMA-SH9对于太行山南麓前一日14：00—当日02：00的降水预报较实况显著偏晚，CMA-MESO对于伏牛山东麓02:00—08:00及平原地区08：00—14：00的降水预报均表现出较实况偏早的特征。Abstract: Taking precipitation processes at the edge of subtropical high as target objects, three typical sub-regions including the southern foothills of Taihang Mountains, the eastern foothills of Funiu Mountains, and the eastern plains in Huanghuai Region are investigated, according to the topography and precipitation distribution characteristics. On this basis, using multi-source fusion precipitation data of National Meteorological Information Center, the precipitation refinement verification index, FSS (fractional skill score) and STFSS (spatial temporal fractional skill score) that adds the temporal neighborhood are used to evaluate the forecasting performance of the precipitation diurnal variation of CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9. The results show that the precipitation frequency and intensity by CMA-MESO in mountainous areas are smaller than observations, leading to significant underestimation, while results by CMA-SH9 are both stronger. The deviation of precipitation amount forecast of CMA-MESO in plain area mainly comes from the deviation of precipitation frequency. The precipitation intensity forecast by CMA-SH9 is stronger than observations in the southern foothills of Taihang Mountains, and the forecast precipitation frequency in the afternoon is significantly larger. For the early morning to morning period in the eastern foothills of Funiu Mountains, the frequency of precipitation by CMA-MESO is significantly lower than observations, while the diurnal variation of precipitation intensity is better than that of CMA-SH9. For the eastern plains, the overestimation of precipitation in early evening by CMA-SH9 mainly comes from the significantly larger precipitation intensity, while CMA-MESO significantly underestimates the frequency of precipitation in early evening and early morning. Based on the analysis of FSS, CMA-MESO is superior to CMA-SH9 in hourly precipitation forecast of more than 10 mm during afternoon to mid-night in the eastern foothills of Funiu Mountains and 0200 BT to 0400 BT in the night in the eastern plains, but the conclusion is opposite in the southern foothills of Taihang Mountains in the nighttime. STFSS can better evaluate the temporal and spatial uncertainty of hourly precipitation forecasts. Precipitation forecasts of CMA-SH9 in southern foothills of Taihang Mountains from the afternoon to the first half of the night significantly lag behind observations, but its spatial-deviation-scale and performance is better than CMA-MESO. The precipitation forecast of CMA-MESO from 0200 BT to 0800 BT in the eastern foothills of Funiu Mountains is significantly ahead of observations, and the advance time is more obvious in the eastern plains in the morning.
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图 1 研究区域地形特征及所选27个降水日总降水量
Fig. 1 Terrain of the target area and total precipitation of the selected 27 precipitation days
图 2 典型个例的500 hPa位势高度(等值线，单位：dagpm)、700 hPa风场(风羽) 及当日20:00 24 h累积降水量(填色) 分布
Fig. 2 Distribution of 500 hPa geopotential height (the contour, unit:dagpm), 700 hPa wind field (the barb) and 24 h precipitation (the shaded) at 2000 BT of typical cases
图 3 所选个例实况和预报平均降水量、有效降水时次占比、降水强度
Fig. 3 Observation and forecast of average precipitation, percentage of effective precipitation and average precipitation intensity of the selected precipitation days
图 4 不同区域实况和预报的平均降水量、有效降水时次占比、降水强度日变化特征
短竖线代表预报与观测差值在0.1显著性水平上显著大于(小于)0
Fig. 4 Diurnal variation characteristics of average precipitation, percentage of effective precipitation and average precipitation intensity in different areas of the selected precipitation days
short vertical lines denote the difference between forecast and observation significantly greater(less) than zero at 0.1 level
图 5 不同区域、不同空间邻域下CMA-MESO，CMA-SH9预报10 mm以上小时降水的FSS评分日变化及两者差值
★代表模式评分差值在0.1显著性水平上显著大于(小于)0
Fig. 5 Diurnal variation of FSS for hourly precipitation above 10 mm forecast and the difference between CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 of different spatial neighborhoods in different areas
★ denotes the difference significantly greater(less) than zero at 0.1 level
图 6 CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9两模式在不同时间、空间邻域下对太行山南麓大于10 mm阈值小时降水预报的STFSS评分及两者差值
▲代表任一时间领域的STFSS评分与0 h评分的差值在0.1显著性水平上显著大于(小于)0，★代表模式评分差值在0.1显著性水平上显著大于(小于)0
Fig. 6 STFSS for hourly precipitation forecasts greater than 10 mm threshold and the difference between CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 at southern foothills of Taihang Mountains under different time and space neighbors
▲ denotes the difference between STFSS score of the neighborhood at any time and 0 h score significantly greater(less) than zero at 0.1 level, ★ denotes the difference between STFSS of CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 significantly greater(less) than zero at 0.1 level
表 1 黄淮地区副高边缘型降水日起止时间
Table 1 Beginning and ending time of subtropical high edge precipitation samples in Huanghuai Region
编号 起始时间 结束时间 1 2020-06-15T20:00 2020-06-16T20:00 2 2020-06-16T20:00 2020-06-17T20:00 3 2020-08-02T20:00 2020-08-03T20:00 4 2020-08-03T20:00 2020-08-04T20:00 5 2020-08-04T20:00 2020-08-05T20:00 6 2020-08-05T20:00 2020-08-06T20:00 7 2020-08-06T20:00 2020-08-07T20:00 8 2020-08-11T20:00 2020-08-12T20:00 9 2020-08-14T20:00 2020-08-15T20:00 10 2020-08-17T20:00 2020-08-18T20:00 11 2020-08-18T20:00 2020-08-19T20:00 12 2020-08-19T20:00 2020-08-20T20:00 13 2020-08-21T20:00 2021-08-22T20:00 14 2021-08-27T20:00 2021-08-28T20:00 15 2021-08-29T20:00 2021-08-30T20:00 16 2021-08-30T20:00 2021-08-31T20:00 17 2021-08-31T20:00 2021-09-01T20:00 18 2021-09-03T20:00 2021-09-04T20:00 19 2021-09-05T20:00 2021-09-06T20:00 20 2021-09-16T20:00 2021-09-17T20:00 21 2021-09-17T20:00 2021-09-18T20:00 22 2021-09-23T20:00 2021-09-24T20:00 23 2021-09-24T20:00 2021-09-25T20:00 24 2021-09-25T20:00 2021-09-26T20:00 25 2021-10-03T20:00 2021-10-04T20:00 26 2021-10-04T20:00 2021-10-05T20:00 27 2021-10-05T20:00 2021-10-06T20:00 
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