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Impacts of Urbanization on Extreme Climate Events in Sichuan-Chongqing Region
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摘要: 为探讨城市化对川渝地区极端气候事件的影响，利用1971—2020年川渝地区46个气象站的逐日气温和降水数据，以及社会经济、人口、土地利用、夜间灯光遥感数据，将气象站划分为城市站、城乡站和乡村站3类，得到近50年21个极端气候指数的时间序列，分析城市化对极端气候事件的影响和贡献率。结果表明：近50年川渝地区3类气象站极值指数和暖指数均呈上升趋势，而冷指数均呈下降趋势，极端降水量和极端降水强度均呈增加趋势。城市化影响对城乡站和城市站的最高和最低气温最小值、霜冻、热夜日数和日较差，以及城市站的冷夜和暖夜日数均影响较大，对其余指数的影响较小。城市化影响对城乡站和城市站的中雨日数、1 d和5 d最大降水量、强降水量和年降水量的贡献率均为100.00%，对城乡站大雨日数、城乡站和城市站特强降水量的贡献率较大，而对其余指数的影响相对较小。Abstract: Based on daily precipitation and temperature data as well as population, gross domestic product (GDP), land use and land cover change (LUCC), night lighting remote sensing data of 46 meteorological stations in Sichuan and Chongqing Region from 1971 to 2020, 21 extreme climate indices are calculated using RClimDex software, and the interannual variation trends of these indices are analyzed using linear trend method. The Mann-Kendall nonparametric method is used to test the significance levels of all indices. These meteorological stations are categorified to further investigate the impact of urbanization on extreme climate indices, especially the impact of urbanization on extreme climate events in Sichuan and Chongqing. It's found that the monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), maximum value of daily minimum temperature (TNx), minimum value of daily maximum temperature (TXn), minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), summer days (SU25), occurrence of hot nights(TR20), warm nights (TN90P) and warm days (TX90P) all show an increasing trend in the last 50 years, while the frost days (FD0), cold nights (TN10P) and cold days (TX10P) show a decreasing trend, and the changes are all significant. The annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), very heavy precipitation days (R25mm), very wet days (R95P), extremely wet days (R99P) and simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), which represent the extreme precipitation and the intensity of extreme precipitation, all show an increasing trend, indicating that the extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation in Sichuan and Chongqing Region have been increasing. The extreme indices show an increasing trend in all three types of meteorological sites. The increasing trend of TXx, TNx, TR20, TX90P and daily temperature range (DTR) are most obvious in urban stations, and FD0, TN10P, TX10P and DTR are most obvious in rural stations. Urbanization has basically no effects on TXx and TN90P at rural-urban sites, but has a greater effect on the monthly TXn, TNn, FD0, TR20 and DTR at rural and urban sites, as well as the number of TN10P and TN90P at urban sites. In Sichuan and Chongqing Region, among the rural sites, all indices show a significant increasing trend except for the monthly maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1DAY), monthly maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5DAY) and consecutive wet days (CWD), which show a non-significant decreasing trend. The influence of urbanization causes a decreasing trend in the number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), R25mm, RX1DAY, RX5DAY, R95P and PRCPTOT in urban-rural and urban sites, and causes an increasing trend in SDII and CWD. The urbanization effects contribute 100.00% to R10mm, RX1DAY, RX5DAY, R95P and PRCPTOT for both urban-rural and urban sites.
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图 1 研究区地理位置和高程(填色)分布
Fig. 1 Geographical location and elevation(the shaded) of the target area
图 2 1971—2020年川渝地区极端温度指数时间序列
Fig. 2 Time series of extreme temperature indices in Sichuan-Chongqing Region in 1971-2020
图 3 1971—2020年川渝地区不同类型气象站极端温度指数时间序列
Fig. 3 Time series of extreme temperature indices at different types of meteorological stations in Sichuan-Chongqing Region in 1971-2020
图 4 1971—2020年川渝地区极端降水指数时间序列
Fig. 4 Time series of extreme precipitation indices in Sichuan-Chongqing Region in 1971-2020
图 5 1971—2020年川渝地区不同类型气象站极端降水指数时间序列
Fig. 5 Time series of extreme precipitation indices at different types of meteorological stations in Sichuan-Chongqing Region in 1971-2020
表 1 极端气候指数定义
Table 1 Definitions of extreme climate indices
指数类型 分类 名称 指数缩写 定义 单位 极端温度指数 极值指数 最高气温最大值 TXx 每月平均日最高气温最大值 ℃ 最低气温最大值 TNx 每月平均日最低气温最大值 ℃ 最高气温最小值 TXn 每月平均日最高气温最小值 ℃ 最低气温最小值 TNn 每月平均日最低气温最小值 ℃ 绝对指数 霜冻日数 FD0 一年中日最低气温小于0℃的日数 d 夏季日数 SU25 一年中日最高气温大于25℃的日数 d 热夜日数 TR20 一年中日最低气温大于20℃的日数 d 相对指数 冷夜日数 TN10P 日最低气温小于10%分位值的日数 d 冷昼日数 TX10P 日最高气温小于10%分位值的日数 d 暖夜日数 TN90P 日最低气温大于90%分位值的日数 d 暖昼日数 TX90P 日最高气温大于90%分位值的日数 d 其他指数 月平均日较差 DTR 日最高气温和日最低气温之差的月平均值 ℃ 极端降水指数 绝对指数 中雨日数 R10mm 日降水量大于10 mm的日数 d 大雨日数 R25mm 日降水量大于25 mm的日数 d 1 d最大降水量 RX1DAY 一年中最大日降水量 mm 5 d最大降水量 RX5DAY 一年中连续5 d最大日降水量 mm 相对指数 强降水量 R95P 日降水量大于95%分位值的年累积降水量 mm 特强降水量 R99P 日降水量大于99%分位值的年累积降水量 mm 降水强度 SDII 年降水量与湿日日数(日降水量大于1 mm)的比值 mm·d-1 持续指数 持续湿期 CWD 日降水量大于1 mm的最大持续降水日数 d 其他指数 年降水量 PRCPTOT 日降水量大于1 mm的日累积量值 mm 
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表 2 川渝地区极端温度指数年代际变化率
Table 2 Interdecadal change rates of extreme temperature indices in Sichuan-Chongqing Region
分类 指数 变化率 极值指数 最高气温最大值 0.37℃·(10 a)-1 最低气温最大值 0.24℃·(10 a)-1 最高气温最小值 0.35℃·(10 a)-1 最低气温最小值 0.37℃·(10 a)-1 绝对指数 霜冻日数 -2.68 d·(10 a)-1 夏季日数 3.82 d·(10 a)-1 热夜日数 1.67 d·(10 a)-1 相对指数 冷夜日数 -3.24 d·(10 a)-1 冷昼日数 -1.85 d·(10 a)-1 暖夜日数 2.97 d·(10 a)-1 暖昼日数 3.39 d·(10 a)-1 其他指数 月平均日较差 0.02℃·(10 a)-1* 注：*表示达到0.1显著性水平，未标注表示达到0.01显著性水平。
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表 3 极端温度指数的城市化影响
Table 3 Urbanization effects of extreme temperature indices
分类 指数 A1 A2 A3 ΔA21 ΔA31 E21/% E31/% 极值指数 最高气温最大值 0.36 0.35 0.41 0.01 0.05 2.44 12.20 最低气温最大值 0.23 0.19 0.30 -0.05 0.06 13.33 23.33 最高气温最小值 0.35 0.45 0.25** 0.10 -0.10 40.00 40.00 最低气温最小值 0.51 0.45 0.14** -0.06 -0.37 42.86 100.00 绝对指数 霜冻日数 -4.41 -2.99 -0.65 1.42 3.76 100.00 100.00 夏季日数 3.29 4.11 4.05 0.82 0.76 20.25 18.77 热夜日数 0.45 1.76 2.80 1.31 2.35 46.79 83.93 相对指数 冷夜日数 -3.81 -3.30 -2.60 0.51 1.21 19.62 46.54 冷昼日数 -2.07 -1.97 -1.50 0.10 0.57 6.67 38.00 暖夜日数 3.28 3.31 2.31 -0.03 -0.97 1.30 41.99 暖昼日数 2.88 3.63 3.67 0.75 0.79 20.44 21.53 其他指数 月平均日较差 -0.04*** 0.05** 0.06** 0.09 0.01 100.00 100.00 注：**表示达到0.05显著性水平，***表示未达到0.05显著性水平，未标注表示达到0.01显著性水平。
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表 4 川渝地区极端降水指数年代际变化率
Table 4 Interdecadal change rates of extreme precipitation indices in Sichuan-Chongqing Region
分类 指数 变化率 绝对指数 中雨日数 0.14 d·(10 a)-1 大雨日数 0.15 d·(10 a)-1 ** 1 d最大降水量 -0.03 mm·(10 a)-1 5 d最大降水量 -0.22 mm·(10 a)-1 相对指数 强降水量 3.63 mm·(10 a)-1* 特强降水量 2.75 mm·(10 a)-1* 降水强度 0.08(mm ·d)-1·(10 a)-1* 持续指数 持续湿期 -0.08 d·(10 a)-1 其他指数 年降水量 2.77 mm·(10 a)-1* 注：*和**分别表示达到0.1，0.05显著性水平。
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表 5 极端降水指数的城市化影响
Table 5 Urbanization effects of extreme precipitation indices
分类 指数 A1 A2 A3 ΔA21 ΔA31 E21/% E31/% 绝对指数 中雨日数 0.51** -0.09 0.01 -0.60 -0.50 100.00 100.00 大雨日数 0.21*** 0.15* 0.08 -0.06 -0.13 75.00 100.00 1 d最大降水量 0.57*** -0.43 -0.24 -1.00 -0.81 100.00 100.00 5 d最大降水量 1.13* -1.14 -0.64 -2.27 -1.77 100.00 100.00 相对指数 强降水量 7.85*** 1.84 11 -6.01 -6.65 100.00 100.00 特强降水量 3.15*** -0.94 6.04 -4.09 2.89 67.72 47.85 降水强度 0.07*** 0.09** 0.09 0.02 0.02 22.22 22.22 持续指数 持续湿期 -0.09 -0.07 -0.08 0.02 0.01 25.00 12.50 其他指数 年降水量 5.62** 3.17 -0.47 -2.45 -6.09 100.00 100.00 注：*，**和***分别表示达到0.1，0.05和0.01显著性水平。
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