高空冷涡对台风烟花(2106)路径的影响

摘要: 2021年台风烟花（2106）移动路径复杂，经历多次移动方向和速度的异常变化，数值模式及主观综合预报对其路径预报均误差较大，模式对120 h预报误差最大达到400~800 km。通过研究导致模式对初次登陆时间及位置预报出现明显偏差的原因发现，高空冷涡的存在有利于副热带高压东退，使得影响台风烟花的引导气流减弱，移速明显减慢，24 h平均移动速度仅为3.6 km·h^-1。随着副热带高压的继续北抬减弱，高空冷涡减弱后的西风槽前偏南气流引导是台风烟花移动路径出现明显偏北分量、登陆浙北地区的重要原因。通过对确定性预报和集合预报分析发现，数值模式对高空冷涡的预报仍存在较大误差和不确定性，是导致台风烟花路径预报误差较大的主要原因。
- 台风烟花(2106);
- 北折路径;
- 高空冷涡;
- 模式误差
Abstract: Typhoon In-fa lands on the coast of Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province on 25 July 2021, bringing severe wind and rain to the coastal areas for a long time. Before landing, it maintains in the sea, east of Ryukyu Islands and then suddenly turns northward. The official subjective and numerical model forecasts both produce serious errors on the landing time and location, which has a certain impact on the decision of disaster prevention.Using the best track data of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the water vapor channel data of FY-4A satellite cloud image, the characteristics of Typhoon In-fa, especially the causes of its stagnation and northerly bend are investigated. Deterministic model forecast results from the regional mesoscale typhoon numerical forecast system (CMA-TYM), the fine-grid numerical forecast product of European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Center for Environmental Prediction Center (NCEP), and ECMWF ensemble forecast data are also analyzed. The fifth generation global climate reanalysis data set ERA5 is used for the analysis of the real situation field and physical quantity field. The center of the upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) is determined by referring to the water vapor channel of the satellite cloud image and the horizontal flow field is obtained according to the wind field data of ERA5. The center of the cyclonic circulation over 200 hPa is set as the center of UTCL.Through FY-4A water vapor cloud image, it is found that in the stagnation stage of Typhoon In-fa, there is a UTCL system on the north side. By analyzing the vertical distribution of circulation situation field, steering flow, and relative vorticity, it is found that the position of the subtropical high system is to the east and north, and typhoon guiding effect on the typhoon is weak. Therefore, the main weather systems that affect the change of its track are the UTCL and westerly trough system in the upper troposphere. There are also differences in the interaction between UTCL and typhoon at different intensities and distances. By analyzing the deterministic and ensemble prediction of ECMWF and CMA-TYM models, it is found that the prediction errors and deviations of UTCL are important reasons for the track predictions. There are still large errors and uncertainties of ensemble prediction in the prediction of UTCL, especially for long lead time forecast products. The UTCL slows down Typhoon In-fa and makes it bend to the left, which indirectly leads to the northerly bend of Typhoon In-fa.In the future, it is necessary to further study the influence of UTCL on typhoon track and intensity, pay more attention to the prediction performance of UTCL, and carry out the prediction and inspection of UTCL in the model, so as to support the interpretation and improvement of the model product.
- Typhoon In-fa in 2021;
- northerly turning track;
- upper-tropospheric cold low;
- model errors

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图 1 2021年7月19日20：00—24日20：00台风烟花最佳路径与数值模式120 h预报

(a)7月19日20:00起报的路径预报比较，(b)7月20日20:00起报的路径预报比较，(c)7月19日20:00起报的移动速度与最佳路径移动速度比较，(d)7月19日与20日20:00起报的12~120 h路径预报误差比较

Fig. 1 The best track and numerical model 120 h track forecast of Typhoon In-Fa from 2000 BT 19 Jul to 2000 BT 24 Jul in 2021

(a)initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul,(b)initiated at 2000 BT 20 Jul, (c)speed of the best track moving and numerical model forecast initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul, (d)12-120 h track errors of numerical model initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul and 2000 BT 20 Jul

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图 2 2021年7月14日、17日、19日与22日08:00 FY-4A卫星水汽云图

(T表示台风烟花中心，C表示高空冷涡中心)

Fig. 2 FY-4A water vapor satellite imagery of Typhoon In-Fa at 0800 BT on 14 Jul, 17 Jul, 19 Jul and 22 Jul in 2021

(T denotes the center of Typhoon In-Fa, C denotes the center of upper-tropospheric cold low)

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图 3 台风烟花最佳路径(实线) 与高空冷涡移动路径(虚线) (a)以及两者中心相对距离(b)

Fig. 3 The best track of Typhoon In-fa (the solid line) and the track of upper-tropospheric cold low (the dashed line) (a) and distance between their centers(b)

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图 4 2021年7月19日08:00，22日08:00和23日20:00 200 hPa (蓝色等值线) 和500 hPa (红色等值线) 位势高度场(单位：gpm)

Fig. 4 Height of 200 hPa (the blue contour) and 500 hPa (the red contour) at 0800 BT 19 Jul and 22 Jul, and 2000 BT 23 Jul of in 2021 (unit:gpm)

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图 5 2021年7月17—29日ECMWF确定性模式分析场计算得到的1000 hPa至100 hPa平均引导气流(蓝线)(红线为台风路径) (a)以及整层引导气流分布(b)

Fig. 5 Mean steering flow (the blue line) from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa (the red line denotes the track of typhoon) (a) and vertical steering flow distribution(b) of Typhoon In-Fa based on ECMWF deterministic model from 17 Jul to 29 Jul in 2021

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图 6 2021年7月19日和22日08:00经过台风中心和高空冷涡中心连线的相对涡度垂直剖面(单位:10^-4 s^-1)

Fig. 6 Vertical profile of relative vorticity passing the line between the typhoon center and the upper-tropospheric cold low center at 0800 BT on 19 Jul and 22 Jul in 2021 (unit:10^-4 s^-1)

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图 7 ECMWF在2021年7月19日20:00(a)和20日20:00(b)起报的路径集合预报

Fig. 7 Track of ECMWF ensemble forecast initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul(a) and 2000 BT 20 Jul(b) in 2021

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图 8 ECMWF集合预报西行组(a)和西北行组(b)合成的72 h 200 hPa流场(流线) 和风速(填色) 预报

Fig. 8 Composited flow field (the streamline) and wind velocity (the shaded) at 200 hPa for westbound group members(a) and northwest group members(b) in ECMWF 72 h forecast

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图 9 ECMWF确定性预报在2021年7月19日20:00(a)和20日20:00(b)起报路径(红线) 的引导气流(对流层中高层平均(黄线)，中低层平均(蓝线)，中层平均(黑线))

Fig. 9 ECMWF deterministic forecasts track (the red line) at 2000 BT 19 Jul(a) and 2000 BT 20 Jul(b) in 2021 and steering flows of tropospheric mid-upper mean (the yellow line), mid-lower mean (the blue line), and mid-level mean (the black line)

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图 10 ECMWF在2021年7月19日20:00起报的西行组(a)和西北行组(b)的72 h 500 Pa高度场集合预报(红色等值线) 和分析场(蓝色等值线)(单位：gpm)(黑线为最佳路径，棕线为预报路径)

Fig. 10 Composited 500 hPa height of forecast (the red contour) and analysis field (the blue contour) for westbound group members(a) and northwest group members(b) in ECMWF 72 h forecast initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul 2021 (unit:gpm) (the black curve denotes the best track, the brown curve denotes the forecast track)

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图 11 2021年7月22日200 hPa流场(流线) 和风速(填色) (a)CMA-TYM 19日20:00起报，(b)ECMWF 19日20:00起报，(c)CMA-TYM 20日20:00起报，(d)ECMWF 20日20:00起报，(e)ERA5 22日20:00分析场

Fig. 11 200 hPa wind stream field (the streamline) on 22 Jul 2021 and wind speed diagram (the shaded) (a)CMA-TYM forecast initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul, (b)ECMWF forecast initiated at 2000BT 19 Jul, (c)CMA-TYM forecast initiated at 2000 BT 20 Jul, (d)ECMWF forecast initiated at 2000 BT 20 Jul, (e)analysis fields of ERA5 at 2000 BT 22 Jul

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高空冷涡对台风烟花(2106)路径的影响

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230507

通信作者:
王海平, 邮箱：wanghp@cma.gov.cn

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Impacts of Upper Tropospheric Cold Low on the Track of Typhoon In-fa in 2021

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高空冷涡对台风烟花(2106)路径的影响

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230507

通信作者: 王海平, 邮箱：wanghp@cma.gov.cn

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Impacts of Upper Tropospheric Cold Low on the Track of Typhoon In-fa in 2021

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出版历程

目录

通信作者:
王海平, 邮箱：wanghp@cma.gov.cn