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Physical Inspection of Randomized Trial for the Artificial Rain Enhancement Experiment at Gutian from 2014 to 2022
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摘要: 基于2014—2022年福建古田地面火箭人工增雨随机试验样本, 利用回波强度、回波顶高和负温层厚度等雷达宏观参量以及双偏振参量差分反射率和差分相位差, 开展人工增雨随机试验物理检验及催化个例的物理响应研究。结果表明:与作业后非催化样本回波强度小幅上升后快速减弱相比, 81.6%的催化样本在作业后回波强度增强, 其中52.6%的样本最大增幅为0~20%(不含0), 21.1%的样本增幅为20%~50%(不含20%), 7.9%的样本增幅超过50%;作业后52.6%的催化样本出现回波顶高升高和负温层增厚现象, 其中36.8%的样本增长0~20%(不含0), 13.2%的样本增长20%~50%(不含20%), 2.6%的样本增长超过50%;催化样本的双偏振参量差分反射率和差分相位差在作业后也出现持续增强;个例分析显示, 催化作业有助于云体发展、增强和维持, 促使降水量显著增加, 不仅降水粒子增多增大, 云体生命史也延长。Abstract: The verification of the effectiveness of artificial rain enhancement is a worldwide challenge. Based on random experiments of ground-based rocket artificial rain enhancement at Gutian from 2014 to 2022, physical verification of stage samples is carried out using radar macro parameters such as radar echo intensity, echo top height, and thickness of the negative temperature layer. The evolution characteristic analysis of dual-polarization parameters ZDR and KDP is conducted. The physical characteristic response of seeded cases is studied by combining ground raindrop size distribution data. The analysis results show that the non-seeded samples have a small increase in echo intensity, echo top height, and negative temperature layer thickness after hypothetical artificial precipitation enhancement operation, but then quickly decrease. Seeded samples generally show an increase in echo intensity after operation, reaching a peak after 36 minutes. There are 52.6%, 21.1% and 7.9% of seeded samples with maximum growth rates of 0-20%(excluding 0), 20%-50%(excluding 20%) and above 50%, respectively. Half of seeded samples show an increase in echo top height and negative temperature layer thickness, with the former showing a significant increase after 30 minutes and maintaining stability, while the latter increase significantly after 12 minutes. Among them, 36.8%, 13.2% and 2.6% of seeded samples increase with maximum growth rates of 0-20%(excluding 0), 20%-50%(excluding 20%) and over 50%, respectively. At the same time, the dual-polarization parameters ZDR and KDP show sustained enhancement after operation. From the physical response characteristics of seeded individual case, ZDR column appearing in the cloud after operation indicates that the upward airflow in the cloud has increased, causing the echo top height to rise and the echo intensity to increase or maintain. At the same time, KDP column also indicates that there are more large raindrops or partially melted ice particles in the cloud after operation. The ground rainfall size distribution shows a characteristic of increasing first with small and medium drops and then with large drops, resulting in an increase in spectral width. The maximum minute rainfall intensity generated by the cloud system within 50 minutes after the operation increases significantly, and the cumulative rainfall has increased by 49% compared to the operation time. In summary, cloud seeding helps the development, enhancement, and maintenance of clouds, not only increasing the number and size of precipitation particles, but also to some extent prolonging the life of the cloud.
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图 2 作业前后最大回波顶高和最大负温层厚度变化
Fig. 2 Changes in echo top height and negative temperature layer thickness before and after operation
图 3 催化样本和非催化样本的ZDR和KDP最大值变化
Fig. 3 Change in maximum of ZDR and KDP for seeded and non-seeded samples
图 4 2021年5月4日作业前后雷达回波强度时序拼图(作业时段为17：03—17：05)
Fig. 4 Radar echo intensity sequence puzzle before and after operation on 4 May 2021 (operation period is 1703-1705 BT)
图 5 2021年5月4日催化作业回波顶高ZH、差分反射率ZDR和差分相位差KDP剖面
Fig. 5 Cross-sections of ZH, ZDR and KDP of the seeded sample on 4 May 2021
图 6 作业前后雨滴尺度平均谱对比
Fig. 6 Comparison of raindrop-scale mean spectra before and after operation
表 1 作业后60 min样本雷达回波强度变化
Table 1 Change in radar echo intensity within 60 min after operation
作业后状态 催化样本 非催化样本 样本量 比例/% 样本量 比例/% 增强 31 81.6 12 30.8 维持 5 13.1 8 20.5 减弱 2 5.3 19 48.7 注：增强含先增强后减弱、持续增强、先增强后维持3种情况，减弱含持续减弱、先减弱后维持两种情况，维持指参数连续30 min以上保持不变。 
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表 2 作业后60 min样本雷达回波强度增长率
Table 2 Radar echo intensity growth rate within 60 min after operation
增长率r/% 催化样本 非催化样本 样本量 比例/% 样本量 比例/% r＜0 2 5.3 19 48.7 r=0 5 13.1 8 20.5 0＜r≤20 20 52.6 10 25.7 20＜r≤50 8 21.1 2 5.1 r＞50 3 7.9 0 0 注：参量X增长率：r=(X2-X1)/X1×100%，X1表示作业时样本的参量值，X2表示作业后样本参量X的极值。
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表 3 作业后60 min样本雷达最大回波顶高变化
Table 3 Change in radar echo top height within 60 min after operation
最大回波顶高变化 催化样本 非催化样本 样本量 比例/% 样本量 比例/% 增长 20 52.6 13 33.3 维持 16 42.1 8 20.5 降低 2 5.3 18 46.2 注：增长含先增长后降低、先增长后维持、持续增长3种情况，降低含持续降低、先降低后维持两种情况，维持指参数连续30 min以上保持不变。
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表 4 作业后60 min样本雷达最大回波顶高增长率
Table 4 Radar echo top height growth rate within 60 min after operation
增长率r/% 催化样本 非催化样本 样本量 比例/% 样本量 比例/% r＜0 2 5.3 18 46.2 r=0 16 42.1 8 20.5 0＜r≤20 14 36.8 11 28.2 20＜r≤50 5 13.2 2 5.1 r＞50 1 2.6 0 0
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表 5 催化样本与非催化样本的雷达回波参量双比值
Table 5 Double ratio of radar echo parameters between seeded and non-seeded samples
作业后时间 回波强度 回波顶高 负温层厚度 6 min 1.00 1.02 1.01 12 min 1.05 1.08 1.16 18 min 1.10 1.08 1.17 24 min 1.12 1.08 1.17 30 min 1.18 1.10 1.21 36 min 1.19 1.12 1.19 42 min 1.18 1.17 1.22 48 min 1.17 1.15 1.26 54 min 1.19 1.20 1.31 60 min 1.20 1.17 1.25
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