“23·7”华北特大暴雨数值预报检验评估

张博; 张芳华; 李晓兰; 胡艺

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20240102

“23·7”华北特大暴雨数值预报检验评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20240102

张博^{1, 2},
张芳华^{1, 2, ,},
李晓兰^{1, 2},
胡艺^{1, 2}

1.
国家气象中心, 北京 100081
2.
中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室, 北京 100081

资助项目:

国家重点研发计划 2022YFC3003905

国家自然科学基金项目 42230612

国家自然科学基金项目 U2142214

国家自然科学基金项目 U2142207

详细信息

通信作者:
张芳华, 邮箱：zfhnmc@126.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-11-13
- 修回日期: 2023-12-13
- 刊出日期: 2024-01-31

Verification and Assessment of "23·7" Severe Rainstorm Numerical Prediction in North China

Zhang Bo^{1, 2},
Zhang Fanghua^{1, 2
, ,},
Li Xiaolan^{1, 2},
Hu Yi^{1, 2}

1.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081
2.
China Meteorological Administration Hydro-meteorology Key Laboratory, Beijing 100081

摘要

摘要: 针对“23·7”华北特大暴雨过程, 采用天气学检验及TS(threat score)评分和MODE(method for object-based diagnostic evaluation)方法对中国气象局高分辨率全球同化预报系统(CMA-GFS)、较低分辨率全球集合预报系统(CMA-EPS)、欧洲中期数值预报中心集合预报系统(EC-EPS)和业务预报模式(EC-HR)、美国环境预报中心全球预报系统(NCEP-GFS)等全球模式和中国气象局区域台风数值预报系统(CMA-TYM)、中尺度天气数值预报系统(CMA-MESO)和区域数值预报系统(CMA-BJ)等进行中短期预报效果检验评估。结果表明:EC-EPS提前14 d预报京津冀一带有过程累积降水量超过100 mm强降水的发生概率, CMA-EPS可提前12 d报出, 但预报欠稳定且落区偏东偏南。EC-HR对100 mm以上过程累积降水量及2 d以上暴雨日的位置预报提前时效均达8 d左右, CMA-GFS的过程累积降水量预报显著偏小、强降水落区明显偏东, 可用预报时效短;NCEP-GFS预报性能介于二者之间。各模式均可提前36 h预报强降水落区和强度的变化趋势, 中尺度模式可更加精细地刻画其形态和位置分布, 尤以CMA-BJ为佳, 但其预报偏强, 其余模式不同程度偏弱, 其中CMA-GFS显著偏弱。EC-HR提前8 d预报关键影响系统发生发展, 但低层倒槽位置偏西偏北, 低空急流偏弱, 低估了地形对强降水的增幅作用, 是太行山东麓降水量预报偏弱的重要原因之一。整体上, EC-EPS、EC-HR的提前时效和稳定性, 以及CMA-BJ的落区形态和强度预报等对预报业务有较高参考价值。
- 华北特大暴雨;
- 数值模式;
- 天气学检验;
- TS评分;
- MODE检验;
Abstract: During the severe rainstorm in North China from 31 July to 1 August in 2023, CMA-GFS, CMA-EPS, EC-EPS, EC-HR, NCEP-GFS, CMA-TYM, CMA-MESO, and CMA-BJ are tested and evaluated using synoptic verification, threat score (TS), and MODE (method for object-based diagnostic evaluatin). The persistence and intensity of long-term heavy rainfall, as well as the area and intensity of short-term heavy rainfall, are tested and analyzed for their effectiveness over time. Results indicate that the cumulative precipitation predicted by EC-EPS may exceed 100 mm for 14 days in advance, but there is no prediction ability for extreme heavy precipitation above 600 mm. EC-HR forecast for the location of precipitation is generally accurate up to 8 days in advance. In the short term, the daily precipitation intensity forecast by CMA-BJ closely matches the actual situation, indicating its significance in predicting precipitation extremes. The average and maximum precipitation values of CMA-GFS, EC-HR, and NCEP-GFS in the areas with concentrated heavy precipitation are lower than actual values. CMA-GFS doesn't perform very well while EC-HR is closer to the actual situation. CMA-GFS, EC-HR, and NCEP-GFS models all provide inadequate forecasts for the persistence of heavy rainfall. However, EC-HR has a relative advantage in predicting persistent precipitation 8 days in advance. TS of CMA-BJ is highest for precipitation forecasts above 50 mm and 100 mm. EC-HR and CMA-TYM precipitation forecasts above 50 mm are relatively stable. From the daily MODE results of the precipitation concentration period from 29 July to 31 July, it is evident that EC-HR exhibits a northward predictive characteristic, while the prediction of CMA-BJ is slightly southward. The forecasting ability of CMA-GFS is insufficient, and forecasts from NCEP-GFS and CMA-MESO are not stable. The high-pressure system in North China has a significant impact on the precipitation. EC-HR model forecasts the formation and reinforcement of a 500 hPa high-pressure system 3 to 4 days earlier than CMA-GFS and NCEP-GFS models. It also surpasses both in predicting the precise location and strength of intense precipitation. Additionally, EC-HR model predicts the emergence of a 925 hPa low-pressure trough and a low-level jet 7 days in advance. However, it underestimates the intensity of the trough and jet system, with the actual location being to the west to north. CMA-GFS and NCEP-GFS underestimate the impact of the Taihang Mountains on easterly winds, leading to significantly lower precipitation forecasts. The analysis of the deviation in the 36 h precipitation forecast for 30 July also shows that EC-HR has weak predictions for low-level wind fields, trough positions, and convective precipitation, resulting in a weak intensity of heavy precipitation and a west-north precipitation area.
- North China severe rainstorm;
- numerical model;
- synoptic verification;
- verification;
- TS;
- MODE

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图 1 2023年7月29日—8月1日累积降水量实况(单位：mm)

Fig. 1 Observed accumulated rainfall from 29 Jul to 1 Aug in 2023(unit:mm)

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图 2 2023年7月29日—8月1日500 hPa高度场(等值线，单位：dagpm)、850 hPa风场(风羽)和风速(填色)

Fig. 2 500 hPa height(the red contour, unit:dagpm), wind vector(the barb) and wind velocity(the shaded) at 850 hPa from 29 Jul to 1 Aug in 2023

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图 3 EC-EPS对2023年7月29日08:00—8月2日08:00累积降水量不低于100 mm的概率预报检验(· 代表实况累积降水量不低于100 mm的格点)

Fig. 3 Probability prediction verification of accumulated rainfall no less than 100 mm in EC-EPS from 0800 BT 29 Jul to 0800 BT 2 Aug in 2023(· denotes grid point with observed accumulated rainfall no less than 100 mm)

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图 4 2023年7月29日08:00—8月2日08:00预报的累积降水量(右上角数值为模式预报最大降水量)

Fig. 4 Predicted accumulated rainfall from 0800 BT 29 Jul to 0800 BT 2 Aug in 2023(the number in the upper right corner denotes the maximum predicted rainfall)

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图 5 模式提前36 h预报的2023年7月29—31日的日降水量

Fig. 5 Predicted daily rainfall for 36 h forecast by models from 29 Jul to 31 Jul in 2023

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图 6 模式36 h时效预报的2023年7月29—31日日降水量不低于50 mm降水个体经向和纬向位移偏差

Fig. 6 Meridional and zonal displacement deviations of daily rainfall no less than 50 mm for 36 h forecast by models from 29 Jul to 31 Jul in 2023

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图 7 2023年7月29—31日关键区(35°~41°N，113°~118°E)36 h时效的日降水量预报检验

Fig. 7 Verification of daily rainfall for 36 h forecast in key region(35°-41°N,113°-118°E) from 29 to 31 in Jul 2023

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图 8 2023年7月29—31日20:00平均500 hPa位势高度预报场(蓝色等值线，单位：dagpm)

(红色等值线为588 dagpm等值线实况)

Fig. 8 Mean of predicted 500 hPa height at 2000 BT from 29 Jul to 31 Jul in 2023(the blue contour, unit:dagpm)

(the red contour denotes observed 588 dagpm)

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图 9 EC-HR 2023年7月29日20:00起报的30日20:00 850 hPa和925 hPa风场预报场(蓝色风羽)与分析场(黑色风羽)对比(阴影为地形高度)

Fig. 9 Comparison of 850 hPa, 925 hPa predicted wind(the blue barb)at 2000 BT 30 Jul 2023 initiated at 2000 BT 29 Jul 2023 and analysis field(the black barb)(the shaded denotes elevation)

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“23·7”华北特大暴雨数值预报检验评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20240102

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Verification and Assessment of "23·7" Severe Rainstorm Numerical Prediction in North China

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“23·7”华北特大暴雨数值预报检验评估

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20240102

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Verification and Assessment of "23·7" Severe Rainstorm Numerical Prediction in North China

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张芳华, 邮箱：zfhnmc@126.com