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Indicator Construction of Spring Low-temperature Disaster Affecting Winter Wheat of Huang-Huai-Hai Based on Meta-analysis
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摘要: 为了明确黄淮海冬小麦春季低温胁迫与产量及其构成因素的定量关系, 基于减产率构建小时尺度低温灾害等级指标。通过检索及筛选的34篇试验文献中的1924组试验组数据和对照组数据, 采用Meta分析方法分析黄淮海地区返青期、拔节期、孕穗期和抽穗-开花期低温胁迫对小麦产量及其构成因素的影响, 以过程最低温度、积冷量为判识因子, 根据约登指数确定减产率为0、10%和30%的临界阈值, 构建并验证低温灾害等级指标。结果表明: 冬小麦产量及其构成因素受低温胁迫过程低温强度和持续时间共同影响, 因所处发育阶段不同存在差异。按照减产率(0, 10%]、(10%, 30%]和(30%, 100%]为分级标准, 分别以过程最低温度和过程积冷量为判识因子构建并验证低温灾害等级指标, 过程积冷量指标在不同发育期的判识准确率均高于过程最低温度指标。因此, 基于过程低温强度和持续时间的综合影响构建的判识因子能更好地表征冬小麦遭受低温灾害的严重程度。Abstract: The low temperature disaster in spring is one of the main agro-meteorological disasters affecting the yield and quality of winter wheat by affecting the development process and physiological function, resulting in yield reduction. In order to clarify the quantitative relationship between spring low temperature stress and winter wheat yield and its components in Huang-Huai-Hai Region, an indicator is constructed based on yield reduction rate. Based on 1924 sets of experimental data and control data in 34 retrieved literatures, effects of low temperature stress on wheat yield and its components at green-up stage, jointing stage, booting stage and heading-flowering stage are analyzed by Meta-analysis. Using the minimum temperature and accumulated cold of the process as identification factors, the critical thresholds of 0, 10% and 30% of yield reduction rate are determined by using the Youden's Index to establish and verify the low temperature disaster grade indicator. Results show that the yield and its components of winter wheat are jointly affected by the intensity and duration of low temperature to different extent in different developmental stages. The yield and all its components decrease significantly under low temperature stress, and the sensitivity of panicle number per plant and grain number per panicle to low temperature stress is greater than that of thousand kernel weight. The low temperature disaster grade indicators are constructed according to the yield reduction rate of (0, 10%], (10%, 30%], (30%, 100%]. Taking the minimum temperature (unit: ℃) of the process as identification factor, ranges for low temperature disaster grade (Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ) during the green-up stage are [-5.0, -2.0), [-8.5, -5.0), <-8.5; during the jointing period, they are [-1.0, 3.0), [-2.5, -1.0), <-2.5; during the booting stage, they are [1.1, 5.1), [-3.0, 1.1), <-3.0. With the accumulated cold (unit: ℃·h) of the process as identification factor: Indicators during the green-up stage are [-216.1, -72.0), [-360.0, -216.1), <-360.0; during the jointing stage, they are [-41.0, -1.2), [-66.0, -41.0), <-66.0; during the booting stage, they are [-101.6, -16.8), [-169.3, -101.6), <-169.3; during the heading to flowering period, they are [-38.5, -19.6), [-93.8, -38.5), <-93.8. The accuracy of the indicator constructed with process accumulated cold volume is higher than that of process minimum temperature in all growth stages, indicating that the identification factor (accumulated cold of the process) based on the comprehensive influence of low temperature intensity and duration of the process could better characterize the severity of winter wheat suffering from low temperature disaster.
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Key words:
- winter wheat;
- low temperature disaster;
- yield;
- Meta-analysis
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图 1 过程最低温度对冬小麦产量及其构成因素的影响
Fig. 1 Effect of minimum temperature stress on winter wheat yield and its components
表 1 纳入文献的试验地点和供试品种信息
Table 1 Information of experimental sites and varieties in selected literatures
参考文献 试验地址及试验年份 供试品种 [18] 河南农业大学科教示范园区，2008/2009 百农矮抗58、豫麦49-198、偃展4110等 [19] 山东农业大学试验田，2009/2010 济麦19、济麦20、济麦21、济麦22等 [20] 北京市农林科学院，2012 京9843 [8] 扬州大学农学院盆栽场，2009 扬麦16 [21] 周口市农科院试验田，2012 45种黄淮麦区主要推广品种和苗头品系 [22] 山东济宁市农业科学研究院 济麦22、济南17、鲁原502、周麦18等 [23] 商丘市农林科学院试验中心 周麦22 [24] 河南省郑州市农业气象试验站，2014/2015 郑麦366、豫麦34、偃展4110、郑麦9023 [25] 河南农业大学科教示范园区，2015 郑麦366、郑麦7698等12个供试品种 [5] 扬州大学江苏省作物遗传生理实验室，2014/2015 扬麦16、徐麦30 [26] 扬州大学江苏省作物遗传生理实验室，2011 扬麦16、徐麦30 [27] 河南省农业科学院 周麦18、众麦1号 [9] 江苏省如皋市国家信息农业工程技术中心试验基地，2014/2015 扬麦16、徐麦30 [28] 江苏省如皋市国家信息农业工程技术中心试验基地，2015/2016 扬麦16、徐麦30 [29] 河南师范大学小麦试验田，2016 周麦18、良星99、济麦22等11个供试品种 [30] 扬州大学江苏省作物遗传生理实验室，2016/2017 扬麦16、徐麦30 [31] 山东泰安市农业科学研究院试验基地，2013/2014 泰山6426、泰山4033、济麦22 [32] 安徽农业大学校内试验基地农萃园，2016/2017 扬麦18、烟农19 [33] 河南省新乡市河南科技学院试验田，2018 矮抗58、郑麦366 [34] 漯河市农业科学院试验基地，2018 漯麦6010 [35] 安徽科技学院种植园(安徽凤阳)，2019 宁麦13、华成3366 [36] 扬州大学江苏省作物遗传生理实验室，2019 扬麦23、徐麦33 [37] 保定市农业科学院徐水试验基地，2020 保麦10号、河农130、远大1号等 [38] 河南省漯河市农业科学院试验田网室，2019 漯麦163、漯麦6010、偃展4110等 [39] 扬州大学江苏省作物遗传生理实验室，2016/2017 扬麦16、徐麦30 [40] 河南省商丘市农林科学院小麦试验基地，2019/2020 偃展4110、兰考198、郑麦366等 [41] 河南省现代农业研究开发基地，2018/2019 郑麦366、新麦26 [42] 安徽农业大学农萃园基地，2020 烟农19、新麦26 [43] 安徽农业大学农萃园，2020 烟农19、新麦26 [44] 安徽科技学院种植科技园，2019 华成3366、扬麦13、生选6号、
扬麦19、安农1589、烟农5185、宁麦13[45] 河南省漯河市农业科学院试验田网室，2021 漯麦47、漯麦906、周麦18等 [46] 扬州大学江苏省作物遗传生理实验室，2017 扬麦16、徐麦30 [47] 扬州大学江苏省作物遗传生理实验室盆钵试验场，2020/2021 宁麦13、镇麦12 [48] 安徽农业大学校内试验基地农萃园，2019 烟农19、皖麦52 
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表 2 无灾及受灾样本量
Table 2 Number of damage-free and damage samples
发育期 无灾样本 受灾样本 恒温样本 变温样本 合计 恒温样本 变温样本 合计 返青期 0 15 15 21 0 21 拔节期 4 112 116 275 56 331 孕穗期 10 34 44 47 53 100 抽穗-开花期 0 29 29 13 36 49
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表 3 冬小麦不同发育期春季低温灾害的临界阈值
Table 3 Critical threshold of spring low temperature disaster in different growth stages of winter wheat
发育期 减产率/% 测试阈值范围/℃ 最佳阈值范围/℃ 最佳阈值/℃ 约登指数 AUC 判识因子性能 0 [-6.0, 1.0] [-3.9, 0.0] -2.0 1.00 1.00 优秀 返青期 10 [-6.0, -4.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.88 0.94 优秀 30 [-6.0, -4.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.93 0.97 优秀 0 [-10.0, 8.0] [2.1, 4.0] 3.0 0.99 1.00 优秀 拔节期 10 [-10.0, 5.0] [-1.9, 0.0] -1.0 0.87 0.94 优秀 30 [-10.0, 5.0] [-2.9, -2.0] -2.5 0.51 0.78 良好 0 [-7.0, 15.0] [4.1, 6.0] 5.1 1.00 1.00 优秀 孕穗期 10 [-7.0, 4.0] [0.1, 2.0] 1.1 0.58 0.81 良好 30 [-7.0, 4.0] [-3.9, -2.0] -3.0 0.44 0.74 良好 0 [2.0, 20.0] [6.0, 7.9] 7.0 0.70 0.94 优秀 抽穗-开花期 10 [2.0, 8.0] [4.0, 5.9] 5.0 0.38 0.75 良好 30 [2.0, 8.0] [2.1, 3.9] 3.0 0.50 0.69 一般
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表 4 冬小麦返青期低温胁迫产量构成因素不同相对变化率分类阈值
Table 4 Classification thresholds of different relative change rates of yield components of winter wheat under low temperature stress in green-up stage
产量构成因素 变化率/% 测试阈值范围/℃ 最佳阈值范围/℃ 最佳阈值/℃ 约登指数 AUC 判识因子性能 10 [-6.0, -4.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.79 0.89 良好 20 [-6.0, -4.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.88 0.94 优秀 单株穗数 30 [-6.0, -4.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.86 0.93 优秀 40 [-6.0, -4.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.75 0.88 良好 50 [-6.0, -4.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.43 0.71 良好 10 [-10.0, -3.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.57 0.75 良好 20 [-10.0, -3.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.73 0.82 良好 穗粒数 30 [-10.0, -3.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.73 0.84 良好 40 [-10.0, -3.0] [-5.9, -4.0] -5.0 0.64 0.89 良好 50 [-10.0, -3.0] [-9.9, -7.0] -8.5 1.00 1.00 优秀
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表 5 冬小麦不同发育期春季低温灾害过程最低温度等级指标及验证
Table 5 Grade indicator construction and validation of spring low temperature disaster process based on minimum temperature in different growth stages of winter wheat
发育期 等级指标/℃ 验证结果 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 完全符合样本量 基本符合样本量 不符合样本量 返青期 [-5.0, -2.0) [-8.5, -5.0) ＜-8.5 5 1 1 拔节期 [-1.0, 3.0) [-2.5, -1.0) ＜-2.5 63 12 14 孕穗期 [1.1, 5.1) [-3.0, 1.1) ＜-3.0 20 7 1 抽穗-开花期 [5.0, 7.0) [3.0, 5.0) ＜3.0 9 4 1
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表 6 冬小麦不同发育期春季低温灾害的临界阈值
Table 6 Critical threshold of spring low temperature disaster in different growth stages of winter wheat
发育期 减产率/% 测试阈值范围/(℃·h) 最佳阈值范围/(℃·h) 最佳阈值/(℃·h) 约登指数 AUC 性能 0 [-432.0, 0.0] [-144.0, -0.1] -72.0 1.00 1.00 优秀 返青期 10 [-432.0, -144.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.47 0.73 良好 30 [-432.0, -144.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.50 0.75 良好 0 [-768.0, 0.0] [-2.4, -0.1] -1.2 1.00 1.00 优秀 拔节期 10 [-768, -2.4] [-42.0, -40.1] -41.0 0.73 0.83 良好 30 [-768, -2.4] [-72.0, -60.1] -66.0 0.38 0.72 良好 0 [-608.4, 0.0] [-30.0, -3.7] -16.8 1.00 1.00 优秀 孕穗期 10 [-608.4, -30.0] [-106.0, -97.3] -101.6 0.83 0.87 良好 30 [-608.4, -30.0] [-170.6, -168.1] -169.3 0.65 0.87 良好 0 [-504.0, 0.0] [-36.0, -3.3] -19.6 0.85 0.98 优秀 抽穗-开花期 10 [-504.0, -1.8] [-75.0, -1.9] -38.5 0.51 0.77 良好 30 [-504.0, -1.8] [-112.5, -75.1] -93.8 0.46 0.83 良好
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表 7 冬小麦返青期低温胁迫产量构成因素不同相对变化率分类阈值
Table 7 Classification thresholds of different relative change rates of yield components of winter wheat under low temperature stress in green-up stage
产量构成因素 变化率/% 测试阈值范围/(℃·h) 最佳阈值范围/(℃·h) 最佳阈值/(℃·h) 约登指数 AUC 判识因子性能 10 [-432.0, -144.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.53 0.76 良好 20 [-432.0, -144.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.59 0.79 良好 30 [-432.0, -144.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.71 0.86 良好 单株穗数 40 [-432.0, -144.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.77 0.88 良好 50 [-432.0, -144.0] [-431.9, -288.1] -360.0 0.71 0.89 良好 60 [-432.0, -144.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.61 0.85 良好 70 [-432.0, -144.0] [-431.9, -288.1] -360.0 0.80 0.90 优秀 10 [-432.0, -24.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.43 0.65 一般 20 [-432.0, -24.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.50 0.68 一般 穗粒数 30 [-432.0, -24.0] [-288, -144.1] -216.1 0.59 0.71 良好 40 [-432.0, -24.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.66 0.81 良好 50 [-432.0, -24.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.56 0.81 良好 千粒重 10 [-432.0, -144.0] [-288.0, -144.1] -216.1 0.10 0.50 无效 20 [-432.0, -144.0] [-431.9, -288.1] -360.0 0.57 0.84 良好
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表 8 冬小麦不同发育期春季低温灾害过程积冷量等级指标及验证
Table 8 Grade indicator construction and validation of spring low temperature disaster process based on accumulated cooling in different growth stages of winter wheat
发育期 等级指标/(℃·h) 验证结果 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ 完全符合样本量 基本符合样本量 不符合样本量 返青期 [-216.1, -72.0) [-360.0, -216.1) ＜-360.0 6 1 0 拔节期 [-41.0, -1.2) [-66.0, -41.0) ＜-66.0 80 7 2 孕穗期 [-101.6, -16.8) [-169.3, -101.6) ＜-169.3 25 3 0 抽穗-开花期 [-38.5, -19.6) [-93.8, -38.5) ＜-93.8 11 3 0
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