江南华南茶树高温热害等级指标及分布特征

High Temperature Heat Damage Grade Index of Tea Plants and Its Distribution Characteristics in Southern Yangtze River and South China

  • 摘要: 利用1961—2022年江南和华南茶区510个气象站的日最高气温数据和历史茶树高温热害灾情数据, 采用灾情反演和K-Means聚类分析方法, 构建并验证江南和华南茶区茶树高温热害等级指标, 分析茶树高温热害时空分布特征。结果表明: 江南和华南茶区茶树轻度、中度、重度高温热害指标为连续14 d日最高气温的滑动平均值T14≥34.5 ℃的持续日数分别为1~17 d、18~38 d和超过38 d, 验证样本完全符合的准确率为73.9%, 基本符合的准确率为91.3%; 江南和华南茶区茶树高温热害总次数呈波动变化, 分别在1999年和1997年达到最低值, 并在2021年达到最高值; 华南茶区相对于江南茶区高温热害次数更多, 尤其是轻度茶树高温热害, 且近62年华南茶区茶树高温热害次数增加趋势显著。

     

    Abstract: With the trend of global climate change, it is important to study the high temperature heat damage of tea plants and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics to warn damage early and reduce production losses. An index is established based on daily maximum air temperature and historical heat damage disaster records at 510 meteorological stations over tea regions in Southern Yangtze River and South China from 1961 to 2022, to determine and verify the extent of high temperature heat damage, using methods of disaster inversion and K-means clustering analysis method. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of high temperature heat damage are analyzed. The total days with moving average of 14-consecutive-day maximum temperature above 34.5 ℃ are statistically analyzed, and for mild, moderate and severe high temperature heat damage, the value is in the range of 1-17 d, 18-38 d and above 38 d, respectively. The accuracy rate of complete compliance with the validation sample is 73.9%, and the accuracy rate of basic compliance is 91.3%. The total number of heat damage on tea plants in Southern Yangtze River and South China shows fluctuating changes from 1961 to 2022. The total number of heat damage on tea plants in tea regions of Southern Yangtze River and South China is the lowest in 1999 and 1997, respectively, while numbers are the highest in 2021 for both tea regions. Compared to tea regions of Southern Yangtze River, there are more high temperature heat damages in South China, especially mild high temperature heat damages. Moreover, the number of high temperature heat damage on tea plants in South China shows a significant increasing trend in the past 62 years, but the trend of changes in the number of high temperature heat damage on tea plants in most tea regions of Southern Yangtze River is not significant.

     

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