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High Temperature Heat Damage Grade Index of Tea Plants and Its Distribution Characteristics in Southern Yangtze River and South China
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摘要: 利用1961—2022年江南和华南茶区510个气象站的日最高气温数据和历史茶树高温热害灾情数据, 采用灾情反演和K-Means聚类分析方法, 构建并验证江南和华南茶区茶树高温热害等级指标, 分析茶树高温热害时空分布特征。结果表明: 江南和华南茶区茶树轻度、中度、重度高温热害指标为连续14 d日最高气温的滑动平均值T14≥34.5 ℃的持续日数分别为1~17 d、18~38 d和超过38 d, 验证样本完全符合的准确率为73.9%, 基本符合的准确率为91.3%; 江南和华南茶区茶树高温热害总次数呈波动变化, 分别在1999年和1997年达到最低值, 并在2021年达到最高值; 华南茶区相对于江南茶区高温热害次数更多, 尤其是轻度茶树高温热害, 且近62年华南茶区茶树高温热害次数增加趋势显著。Abstract: With the trend of global climate change, it is important to study the high temperature heat damage of tea plants and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics to warn damage early and reduce production losses. An index is established based on daily maximum air temperature and historical heat damage disaster records at 510 meteorological stations over tea regions in Southern Yangtze River and South China from 1961 to 2022, to determine and verify the extent of high temperature heat damage, using methods of disaster inversion and K-means clustering analysis method. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of high temperature heat damage are analyzed. The total days with moving average of 14-consecutive-day maximum temperature above 34.5 ℃ are statistically analyzed, and for mild, moderate and severe high temperature heat damage, the value is in the range of 1-17 d, 18-38 d and above 38 d, respectively. The accuracy rate of complete compliance with the validation sample is 73.9%, and the accuracy rate of basic compliance is 91.3%. The total number of heat damage on tea plants in Southern Yangtze River and South China shows fluctuating changes from 1961 to 2022. The total number of heat damage on tea plants in tea regions of Southern Yangtze River and South China is the lowest in 1999 and 1997, respectively, while numbers are the highest in 2021 for both tea regions. Compared to tea regions of Southern Yangtze River, there are more high temperature heat damages in South China, especially mild high temperature heat damages. Moreover, the number of high temperature heat damage on tea plants in South China shows a significant increasing trend in the past 62 years, but the trend of changes in the number of high temperature heat damage on tea plants in most tea regions of Southern Yangtze River is not significant.
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图 2 2022年福建霞浦和浙江平阳连续14 d日最高气温滑动平均值
Fig. 2 Moving average of 14-day maximum temperature at Xiapu of Fujian and Pingyang of Zhejiang in 2022
图 3 1961—2022年江南和华南茶区茶树高温热害次数
Fig. 3 High temperature heat damage frequency in tea region of Southern Yangtze River and South China from 1961 to 2022
图 4 江南和华南茶区不同等级茶树高温热害次数分布特征
Fig. 4 Frequency distribution of different grades of high temperature heat damage in tea region of Southern Yangtze River and South China
图 5 江南和华南茶区不同等级茶树高温热害次数变化趋势
Fig. 5 Frequency trend of different grades of high temperature heat damage in tea region of Southern Yangtze River and South China
表 1 茶树高温热害灾情描述分级[36]
Table 1 Description and classification of high temperature heat damage of tea plants(from Reference [36])
等级 灾情描述 轻度 部分受灾、受损, 受害茶树仅部分叶片出现变色、枯焦，茶枝上部芽叶仍呈现绿色 中度 成灾、部分绝收，受害茶树多数叶片变色、枯焦或脱落，但茶枝顶端叶片或茶芽虽变色但尚未完全枯死 重度 大量减产、绝收，受害茶树叶片变色、枯焦脱落，且蓬面枝条已出现干枯甚至整株死亡 
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表 2 茶树高温热害等级指标验证样本的数量及验证结果
Table 2 Number of validation samples and verification results of grade index of high temperature heat damage of tea plants
灾情等级 验证结果 样本量 完全符合 基本符合 与实际灾情不符 轻度 5 0 0 5 中度 3 1 1 5 重度 9 3 1 13 样本量 17 4 2 23
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