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Characteristics and Causes of Extreme Heavy Rainfall in Heilongjiang Province During August 2023
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摘要: 利用多源观测资料及ERA5(ECMWF reanalysis version 5)再分析资料，从气候统计、天气分析及物理量诊断等角度，分析2023年8月2—4日黑龙江省东南部一次极端强降水过程。高空持续辐散、副热带高压和东北北部冷涡稳定少动、西南低空急流持续水汽输送等有利条件是此次强降水过程持续时间较长的主要原因。该过程可分为两个阶段：第1阶段，经向水汽净收入层和大气饱和层深厚，大气层结为弱对流不稳定；中层受西北气流控制，低层西南急流发展、伴随弱低涡东移，形成水平风速辐合及系统性上升运动，产生大范围持续性降水；该阶段以层积混合云为主，降水效率高，个别时段伴有列车效应，造成极端小时降水量及较大累积降水量。第2阶段，经向水汽净收入集中在对流层低层，且中心强度较大，对流层低层暖湿、饱和，中高层干冷，大气具有较强对流不稳定；在中层槽和低层暖式切变的系统性抬升以及地形辐合抬升的共同作用下，局地有积云发展，引发短时强降水，降水强度分布不均。Abstract: From 2 August to 4 August in 2023, a prolonged and extensive extreme heavy rainfall event occurrs in the southeast of Heilongjiang Province. Utilizing multiple observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, characteristics of the precipitation process are analyzed focusing on large-scale circulation background, mesoscale circulation system evolution, environmental conditions from perspectives of climate statistics, weather analysis, and physical quantity diagnosis. Factors contributing to the prolonged extreme heavy rainfall event are explored. Main causes for the long duration of this heavy precipitation event are the stable maintenance of favorable large-scale conditions, such as the persistent divergence of the upper troposphere, the stable location of the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV), and continuous water vapor transport by the southwest jet. Due to the strong southwest jet, there is abundant moisture transfer, primarily through the advection of water vapor, which is the primary source for heavy rainfall. The process can be divided into two stages due to significant differences of rainfall, atmospheric stratification, and local circulation characteristics. In the first stage, the meridional water vapor inflow layer and the saturated layer are thick, resulting in high tropospheric humidity. The atmospheric condition is characterized by weak convective instability. Under the control of the northwest airflow at 500 hPa, the development of southwest jet, along with the influence of a weak eastward-moving vortex system at 850 hPa, results in horizontal wind speed convergence and systematic upward motion, leading to widespread and prolonged precipitation. The heavy rainfall area is mainly composed of cumulus embedded stratus, with a large coverage area of the cloud system, low echo centroid height, and high precipitation efficiency. With weak convective instability that promotes the development of convection and train effect in some periods, extreme hourly precipitation and large cumulative precipitation occur. In the second stage, the meridional water vapor inflow is concentrated in the lower troposphere with high intensity. The lower troposphere is close to saturation, with high humidity and temperature, while the middle and upper troposphere is dry and cold, and the atmospheric condition is more unstable than that in the first stage. Convection is developed and strengthened by the combined action of systematic uplift by a trough at 500 hPa, warm shear at 850 hPa, topographic convergence, and uplift. The cloud system is dominated by local strong cumulus clouds, and the distribution of precipitation intensity is uneven. At the beginning of this stage, convective cells continue to form at the trumpet-shaped terrain and move towards the eastern mountainous areas, organizing into linear convection. This is accompanied by the development and southward movement of surface convergence lines, leading to the generation of new convection and continuously causing localized intense short-duration rainfall.
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Key words:
- extreme heavy rainfall;
- southwest jet;
- train effect;
- orographic effect
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图 1 2023年8月2日02:00—4日20:00区域内气象站累积降水量分布 (单位：mm, 黑色虚线框为降水量大值区)
Fig. 1 Accumulated precipitation of regional rain gauge stations from 0200 BT 2 Aug to 2000 BT 4 Aug in 2023 (unit:mm, the black dashed rectangular denotes the big-value area of precipitation)
图 3 2023年8月2—4日500 hPa位势高度场(蓝色等值线，加粗线条为5880 gpm等值线，等值线间隔为40 gpm)、300 hPa风场(风向杆不小于20 m·s-1) 及散度场(填色)(黑色方框为强降水区，下同)
Fig. 3 500 hPa geopotential height (the blue contour, the bold line is 5880 gpm, the interval is 40 gpm), 300 hPa wind (the red barb), 300 hPa divergence (the shaded) from 2 Aug to 4 Aug in 2023 (the black rectangular denotes the big-value area of precipitation, similarly hereinafter)
图 4 2023年8月2—4日850 hPa位势高度场(黑等值线，加粗线条为1500 gpm等值线，等值线间隔为20 gpm)、风场(蓝色、青色矢量分别代表不小于12 m·s-1和小于12 m·s-1的风矢量) 和比湿场(红色等值线，单位：g·kg-1)
Fig. 4 850 hPa geopotential height (the black contour, the bold line is 1500 gpm, the interval is 20 gpm), wind (blue and cyan vectors denote wind speeds no less than 12 m·s-1 and less than 12 m·s-1, respectively), specific humidity (the red isoline, unit:g·kg-1) from 2 Aug to 4 Aug in 2023
图 5 2023年8月2—4日降水大值区的经向、纬向水汽净流入(填色) 垂直剖面(灰色代表地形高度)
Fig. 5 Vertical cross-sections of water vapor (the shaded) meridional and zonal budget over the big-value area of precipitation (the grey denotes terrain) from 2 Aug to 4 Aug in 2023
图 6 2023年8月2—4日沿43.5°~45.5°N平均的经度-高度垂直剖面(填色代表假相当位温，矢量为纬向与垂直(扩大20倍) 的合成风，蓝色等值线为垂直速度(起始等值线为-0.3 Pa·s-1，等值线间隔为-0.3 Pa·s-1)，灰色代表地形以下的部分)
Fig. 6 Longitude-height cross section average between 43.5°-45.5°N from 2 Aug to 4 Aug in 2023 (the shaded denotes pseudo-equivalent potential temperature, the vector denotes the composite wind field from zonal wind and vertical wind(to expand 20 times), the blue dashed isoline denotes vertical velocity (starting from -0.3 Pa·s-1 with interval of -0.3 Pa·s-1), the grey denotes terrain)
图 7 2023年8月2—4日44.5°~45.5°N、126°~128°E区域平均假相当位温(填色)、垂直速度(等值线，单位：Pa·s-1)、0℃层(绿色虚线) 高度-时间分布(a)以及区域平均小时降水量、有降水气象站数的时间变化(b)
Fig. 7 Height-time distribution of averaged pseudo-equivalent potential temperature (the shaded), vertical velocity (the isoline, unit:Pa·s-1), 0℃ level (the green dash line) (a) and time series of mean intensity, number of rainfall stations(b) in 44.5°-45.5°N, 126°-128°E from 2 Aug to 4 Aug in 2023
图 8 2023年8月2—3日FY-4A气象卫星TBB图像(黑点位置自左至右分别为长发站、临河站、龙凤山站、珍珠山乡站)
Fig. 8 FY-4A TBB images from 2 Aug to 3 Aug in 2023 (black dots from left to right denote stations of Changfa, Linhe, Longfengshan and Zhenzhushan)
图 9 第2阶段初期强降水区地面位温的水平扰动场(彩色圆点，单位：K) 及风场(矢量，单位：m·s-1) 分布(填色代表地形高度，红线代表地面辐合线，蓝色实线圈为大于35 dBZ强回波)
Fig. 9 Distributions of surface disturbed potential temperature (the colored dot, unit:K) and wind (the vector, unit:m·s-1) in heavy rainfall area at the beginning of stage-Ⅱ (the shaded denotes terrain, the red line and the blue circle denote convergence line and strong echo areas greater than 35 dBZ, respectively)
表 1 1961—2023年降水量大值区内县气象站降水历史排名
Table 1 Historical ranking of county observational stations in the big-value area of precipitation in 1961-2023
站名 排序Ⅰ 排序Ⅱ 排序Ⅲ 2023年8月2—4日累积降水量/mm 过程降水量占8月平均降水量比例/% 哈尔滨 11 1 22 80.7 71.2 双城 7 1 5 128.9 118.4 阿城 4 1 1 143.2 124.6 宾县 72 3 27 81.8 67.0 木兰 6 20.6 15.9 通河 11 12.5 9.7 延寿 6 49.2 37.4 尚志 2 1 2 154.7 107.7 扶余 66 1 13 106.0 95.8 榆树 1 23 84.7 70.6 舒兰 60 1 5 127.3 89.2 五常 2 1 1 270.7 202.5 牡丹江 6 1 5 112.8 95.3 宁安 1 1 1 159.6 137.5 吉林城郊 6 36.8 27.0 蛟河 9 38.5 26.2 
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