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近40年中国冬季寒潮的气候特征及大气环流异常

王淼淼,  丁明虎,  吕俊梅,  陈军明

文章导航 > 应用气象学报  > 2024 >  35(3): 298-310
王淼淼, 丁明虎, 吕俊梅, 等. 近40年中国冬季寒潮的气候特征及大气环流异常. 应用气象学报, 2024, 35(3): 298-310. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20240304..
引用本文: 王淼淼, 丁明虎, 吕俊梅, 等. 近40年中国冬季寒潮的气候特征及大气环流异常. 应用气象学报, 2024, 35(3): 298-310. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20240304.
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Wang Miaomiao, Ding Minghu, Lü Junmei, et al. Climatology of winter cold waves and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies in China during the last 40 years. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2024, 35(3): 298-310. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20240304.
Citation: Wang Miaomiao, Ding Minghu, Lü Junmei, et al. Climatology of winter cold waves and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies in China during the last 40 years. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2024, 35(3): 298-310. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20240304.
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近40年中国冬季寒潮的气候特征及大气环流异常

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20240304
  • 1.

    中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081

  • 2.

    中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室，雄安新区 071000

资助项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 42122047

中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费 2023Z015

中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费 2023Z025

详细信息
    通信作者:

    吕俊梅, 邮箱：wind-ljm@163.com

Climatology of Winter Cold Waves and Associated Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies in China During the Last 40 Years

  • 1.

    State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

  • 2.

    Xiong'an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory, CMA, Xiong'an New Area 071000

    摘要
  • 摘要: 利用1980—2023年高分辨率中国气象站观测数据，根据寒潮标准及强度指数，对中国寒潮事件的强度及影响区域进行客观分类，探讨全国性、区域性寒潮事件的时空变化特征和环流演变。结果表明：近40年我国冬季寒潮频次呈显著减少趋势，其影响范围扩大，而强寒潮的强度呈显著增加趋势，且年际变化幅度明显增大。中国寒潮冷空气主要来源于新地岛东南地区，路径因寒潮类型而异。分析全国型、东北华北型和西北华北型寒潮前期和同期大气环流异常特征发现：格陵兰岛的异常深厚暖高压是全国型寒潮的重要前兆，欧亚大陆对流层中高层纬向波列是其爆发的显著特征；东北华北型寒潮与冷涡在中低纬度异常高压系统阻挡下的东移有关；西北华北型寒潮与东欧平原上空暖性高压脊的发展及欧亚大陆两脊一槽的形势密切相关。所有类型寒潮爆发前均有乌拉尔阻塞高压的维持和西伯利亚地区冷空气的堆积。
    Abstract: Based on daily high-resolution temperature observations at 1941 meteorological stations in China from 1980 to 2023, stations reaching standard for cold wave and 418 cold wave processes (including 152 strong cold waves processes) in winter are identified according to the monitoring indices of cold air processes. And cold wave processes are objectively classified according to their intensity and influencing areas using K-means++ clustering method. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the single-station cold waves and 418 cold wave events are discussed. Results show that the frequency of cold waves in the high affecting areas of China has not increased significantly but has shown a decreasing trend over the last 40 years. The increasing trend of frequency and intensity of single-station cold waves in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain is significant. Additionally, the intensity of single-station cold waves in South China is also noticeably enhanced. The frequency of winter cold wave events in China has decreased significantly in the last 40 years with an expanding range of influence, while the intensity of strong cold wave events has increased significantly, accompanied by a marked increase in the amplitude of interannual variations. The cold air associated with cold waves in China mainly originates from the southeast of Novaya Zemlya, and its trajectory varies depending on the type of cold wave. Based on the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis data (ERA5), characteristics of atmospheric circulation anomalies in the preceding and the simultaneous period for cold wave processes in the countrywide, Northeast-North China and Northwest-North China are analyzed. It is found that the deep warm high pressure in Greenland is an important precursor of the countrywide cold wave, and the zonal wave train in the middle and upper troposphere of Eurasia is a prominent feature of the cold wave outbreak. The cold wave in Northeast-North China is related to the eastward movement of the cold vortex under the block of anomalous high-pressure system in the mid-low latitudes. The cold wave in Northwest-North China is closely related to the development of a warm high ridge over the East European Plain and the circulation situation of two-ridge-one-trough in mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. All types of cold waves are preceded by the maintenance of the Ural blocking high and the accumulation of cold air in Siberia.
    • HTML全文

  • 图  1  中国冬季6类寒潮事件峰值日24 h降温幅度合成(填色) (填色区表示降温幅度达到0.05显著性水平，红点表示单站寒潮发生的频次) (a)全国型，(b)东北华北型，(c)西北华北型，(d)东部型，(e)东北西南型，(f)西南型

    Fig. 1  Composites of the daily maximum temperature drops within 24 hours (the shaded) at their peak days for six types of cold waves (the shaded denotes temperature drops passing the test of 0.05 level, the red dot denotes frequency of single-station cold waves) (a)countrywide, (b)Northeast-North China, (c)Northwest-North China, (d)East China, (e)Northeast-Southwest China, (f)Southwest China

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  2  418个寒潮个例的冷空气路径(红色粗线表示最大2 m温度负距平合成的冷空气路径，绿色点和紫色点分别表示路径的起点和终点) (a)全国型，(b)东北华北型，(c)西北华北型，(d)东部型，(e)东北西南型，(f)西南型

    Fig. 2  Trajectories of cold air for 418 cold waves (the thick red line denotes cold air trajectory composited by the minimum value of 2 m temperature negative anomalies, green and the purple dots denote starting and ending of trajectories, respetively) (a)countrywide, (b)Northeast-North China, (c)Northwest-North China, (d)East China, (e)Northeast-Southwest China, (f)Southwest China

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  3  1980—2022年冬季中国单站寒潮频次和线性趋势系数的空间分布(红点表示趋势达到0.05显著性水平) (a)频次多年平均值，(b)频次最大值，(c)频次线性趋势，(d)48 h最大降温幅度线性趋势

    Fig. 3  Spatial distribution of single-station cold wave frequency and linear trend coefficient in China during 1980-2022 (the red dot denotes passing the test of 0.05 level) (a)climate mean of cold wave frequency, (b)the maximum frequency of cold wave, (c)linear trend coefficients of cold wave frequency, (d)linear trend coefficients of the maximum temperature drops within 48 hours

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  4  1980—2022年冬季中国寒潮事件年际变化 (a)频次, (b)冷空气过程强度指数

    Fig. 4  Interannual variation of cold waves in China from 1980 to 2022 (a)frequency, (b)cold air process intensity index

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  5  全国型寒潮500 hPa位势高度场(等值线，单位：gpm) 及其距平(填色) 的合成图(等值线间隔为40 gpm，粗等值线为5440 gpm，黑色点区表示500 hPa位势高度距平达到0.05显著性水平)

    Fig. 5  Composites of 500 hPa geopotential height (the contour, unit:gpm) and its anomalies (the shaded) for countrywide cold waves (the contour interval is 40 gpm and the thick line denotes 5440 gpm, the black dot denotes anomalies passing the test of 0.05 level)

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  6  同图 5，但为东北华北型寒潮事件 (等值线间隔为30 gpm)

    Fig. 6  The same as in Fig. 5, but for cold waves in Northeast-North China (the contour interval is 30 gpm)

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片

    图  7  同图 5，但为西北华北型寒潮事件

    Fig. 7  The same as in Fig. 5, but for cold waves in Northwest-North China

    下载: 全尺寸图片 幻灯片
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    Liang K, Li L P, Ren J H, et al. Synergistic effects of mid-latitude sea surface temperature on intensity anomalies of cold waves in winter of Northern China. Plateau Meteor, 2023, 42(3): 711-724. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX202303015.htm
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