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Agro-climatic Zoning of Oiltea Camellia in China Based on Climate-land Integrated Impacts
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摘要: 从作物气候适宜性评价出发, 考虑坡度、土壤厚度等土地因素影响, 利用全国油茶种植点地理信息、土地数据以及1986—2023年2426个国家气象观测站观测数据, 采用最大熵模型和ArcGIS技术, 重点开展油茶种植精细化农业气候区划和省级区域扩种潜力评估。结果表明:我国油茶种植分布的主导气候因子是1月平均气温、大于等于10 ℃活动积温、日最低气温小于等于-10 ℃连续日数和年降水量;考虑气候-土地共同作用较未考虑土地影响的气候适宜区划缩减了2/3, 其适宜种植地区为长江及以南地带, 尤其是四川盆地—秦岭—淮河以南及云贵高原以东至沿海地区, 面积达7.319×107 hm2, 远高于当前种植面积(4.723×106 hm2), 具有较大的扩种潜力。基于此, 在规划油茶种植布局时, 除考虑湖南、江西、广西、湖北等主要种植区外, 应考虑云南、四川、广东、重庆等扩种潜力较大的省份, 适当提高其种植面积。Abstract: In recent years, China has accelerated the development of oiltea camellia industry and promoted the expansion of oiltea camellia cultivation nationwide, necessitating a refined agricultural climate zoning for oiltea camellia cultivation across the country. Considering soil factors is crucial for enhancing the precision of agricultural climate zoning for oiltea camellia. Therefore, based on the selection of potential climate factors affecting oiltea camellia cultivation distribution, as well as land conditions such as slope and soil thickness, dominant climate factors are analyzed using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS technology. It provides a refined climate zoning of oiltea camellia cultivation in China based on the joint effect of climate and land, identifying the potential for expansion and offering a scientific basis for the planning and implementation of oiltea camellia expansion. Results indicate the dominant climate factors affecting oiltea camellia cultivation distribution in China are the average temperature in January, accumulated temperature above or equal to 10 ℃, consecutive days with minimum temperature equal to or below -10 ℃, and annual cumulative precipitation. Taking into account the impact of slope and soil thickness on climatic suitability analysis, the climate zoning for oiltea camellia is divided into four suitability levels: The most suitable, more suitable, suitable region, and unsuitable region. The area for the most suitable region is 3.003×107 hm2, more suitable region is 2.858×107 hm2, and suitable region is 1.458×107 hm2.The precision of regional climate zoning for oiltea camellia cultivation is enhanced, reducing the suitable planting area for oiltea camellia by two-thirds compared to those not considering land factors. Suitable cultivation areas for oiltea camellia in China are in the region south of Yangtze River, especially from Sichuan Basins to the Qinling Mountains to the south of Huai River, and the east of Yungui Plateau to the coastal areas. Compared to the current planting area and range, oiltea camellia in China has significant potential for expansion. The potential planting boundaries, considering the joint effect of climate and land, tend to be further north. It suggests significant potential for expansion in the distribution of oiltea camellia in China. Therefore, when planning the layout of oiltea camellia cultivation, in addition to considering major planting areas such as Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi and Hubei, provinces with significant expansion potential such as Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangdong and Chongqing should also be taken into account, and their planting areas should be appropriately increased.
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图 1 主要研究区域气象观测站、油茶种植分布点(a)及坡度(b)、土壤厚度(c)空间分布
Fig. 1 Meteorological observation stations and oiltea camellia cultivation sites in target area(a) and distributions of slope(b), soil thickness(c)
图 2 各潜在气候因子对油茶种植分布贡献
Fig. 2 Contribution of potential climate factors to oiltea camellia cultivation distribution
图 5 油茶种植气候适宜区划
(a)气候因子影响的油茶种植区气候适宜区划，(b)气候-土地条件共同影响的油茶种植区气候适宜性区划
Fig. 5 Climatic suitability of oiltea camellia cultivation
(a)climatic suitability of oiltea camellia cultivation in China under effects of climate, (b)climatic suitability of oiltea camellia cultivation in China under combined effects of climate and soil
图 6 主要种植省份实际、新增及适宜性种植面积
Fig. 6 Target cultivation area and suitable cultivation area in main cultivation provinces
表 1 影响油茶种植分布的潜在因子
Table 1 Potential factors affecting distribution of oiltea camellia cultivation
环境条件 类型 潜在因子 文献出处 气候条件 热量 年平均气温/℃ [3-4, 14-18] 1月平均气温/℃ [3-4, 18, 28-30] 7月平均气温/℃ [3-4, 18, 28-30] 大于等于10℃活动积温/(℃·d) [3-4, 10, 15, 18, 30] 日最低气温小于等于-10℃日数/d [3, 30] 日最高气温大于等于40℃日数/d [3, 30] 水分 年降水量/mm [3-4, 14, 26] 年降水日数/d [4, 30] 年平均相对湿度/% [3-4, 14] 光照 年日照日数/d [3-4, 11] 年日照累积时数/h [3-4, 11-14] 土地条件 地形 坡度/(°) [16-18] 土壤 土壤厚度/cm [17, 24-26] 
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表 2 潜在气候因子的贡献率和置换重要性
Table 2 Percent contribution and permutation importance of potential climate factors
气候因子 贡献率/% 置换重要性/% 年降水量 60.9 2.6 日最低气温小于等于-10 ℃日数 14.1 0.7 年日照累时数 6.5 5.0 大于等于10 ℃活动积温 4.5 16.3 年降水日数 3.9 46.1 年日照日数 3.7 7.8 年平均气温 2.1 2.0 7月平均气温 1.6 3.7 年平均相对湿度 1.2 5.1 日最高气温大于等于40 ℃日数 1.0 0.8 1月平均气温 0.7 9.8
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表 3 油茶不同种植适宜区等级主导气候因子阈值
Table 3 Thresholds of dominant climate factors in different grades of suitable areas for oiltea camellia cultivation
主导气候因子 最适宜区 次适宜区 适宜区 不适宜区 1月平均气温/℃ [5, 12] [4, 15] [2, 17] (-40，2) 大于等于10 ℃活动积温/(℃·d) [5400, 8000) [4200, 5400) [2800, 4200) (0, 2800) 最低温度小于等于-10 ℃日数/d [0, 2) [2, 5) [5, 10) [10, 200) 年降水量/mm [1300, 1900) [1100, 2100) [800, 1100) [0, 800)
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